Spain v Croatia

Spain and Croatia kick off their campaign in the so-called ‘group of death’ in the Olympiastadion in Berlin.

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The Spanish go into the game as favourites and have a squad blessed with a blend of experience and rising talent, but Croatia have shown their tournament pedigree on numerous occasions and shouldn’t be written off.

Even if many think their golden generation is past its peak, they still finished third at the last World Cup and have consistently proved to be one of international football’s most difficult opponents.

Spain v Croatia Best Bets

The first match of the Euros can be a cagey affair. The last Euros opening round of games went over 2.5 goals in 6 games and under in the other 6. However, in Euro 2016, 10 of the 12 opening games went under 2.5 goals. In 2012, 5 of the 8 opening games hit the unders.

Given the context of it being the first match, the teams' close encounters in the past and the fact that five of the last six head-to-heads between the two nations have seen the sides level at half time, our pick has to be draw at half time at 2.0 with Paddy Power.

This gives us cover in the case that both teams go into the break at 1-1, which happened twice in their last 5 matchups.

Although the market makes Spain favourites for the game, they may be underestimated in terms of discipline and potential for cards. The Spanish have an easy time of it against weaker opposition, with little need to foul and with domination of possession leading to few opportunities for Spanish players to get booked.

However, when they play a higher-ranked FIFA nation, the picture is quite different. In a recent friendly to Brazil in March, they picked up three bookings and picked up four apiece in back-to-back games against Norway and Scotland in qualifying. More relevant to this bet is the Nations League match they played against the Croats last year, where they picked up 4 bookings.

The referee for the game is Michael Oliver, who averages 4 yellow cards himself across all his matches this season and is another promising sign. We like the look of Over 1.5 Spain Cards at 1.83 with Paddy Power.

📂 Spain v Croatia Cheat Sheet

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You can find Spain v Croatia match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

⚔️ Spain v Croatia Head-to-Head

The two sides have met on 10 occasions since Croatia became an independent country. Their last encounter was the UEFA Nations League final where Spain won following a penalty shoot-out, after a drab 0-0 draw.

They both met in the Euros last time out, where there was a complete contrast, a 3-3 draw in normal time, with 2 extra time goals for Spain pushing them through to the quarter-finals.

Croatia have picked up 3 wins, including at the Euros in 2016, but would also want to forget a 6-0 hammering by La Roja in the Nations League in 2018. The question is whether we are going to be treated to a goal-fest or a tight and cagey encounter. 

📊 Spain Form and Stats

Spain won seven of their eight qualifying games, with just a solitary loss away to Scotland. They were also one of the highest-scoring teams in Europe with 25 goals across their campaign and aside from the Scotland blip, the Spanish conceded only 3 goals in their additional 7 games.

Their two most recent friendlies were against underwhelming opponents. Although they conceded the first goal against Northern Ireland, they ended up 5-1 winners and preceded that with a 5-0 win over Andorra.

Neither result gives us much insight into their ability against stronger opponents, but a friendly defeat against Colombia and a draw against Brazil in March would raise some slight concerns. 

📊 Croatia Form and Stats

Croatia made hard work of a relatively simple qualifying group, finishing in second place to Turkey and just scraping ahead of Wales who were hot on their heels in 3rd place.

They only conceded 4 goals in their campaign but scored just 13 in 8 games. In terms of more recent form, They were impressive in their last friendly with Portugal, winning 2-1 and an xG of 2.72 against a relatively full-strength Portuguese side. 

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.