Spain conceded 5 shots on target in their match against Croatia and Unai Simon was actually the second highest rated player on the pitch despite the Spanish winning the game 3-0.

Italy should get chances in this game and I expect Simon to be tested on at least a few occasions. Italy have hit at least 2 shots on target in their last 12 games.

Crunching the numbers, Italy have conceded an average of 2.9 corners per match over a 10 game sample, compared to Spain’s 1.1. Italy also conceded 3 or more corners in 5 of those games, with the Spanish only letting 3 against them on two occasions.

With both Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal a nuisance on either flank, Italy look likely to concede the most corners on the numbers and the tactical match up.

The Spanish are persistent foulers, particularly against stronger nations, where they are more likely to break up opposition passing moves with tactical fouling. They fouled Croatia 14 times last time out, hit 20 against Brazil, and 15 against Colombia in their March friendlies.

Italy have some skilled players on the ball and have averaged 12 fouls drawn against them in a sample going back to the 22/23 season. Although Albania only fouled them seven times, they were fouled 10 and 12 times respectively by Bosnia and Turkey in their warm up friendlies and a massive 19 times against the Spanish in their last encounter.

Althought the stats aren’t spectacular for this leg, with Dimarco averaging just 0.27 fouls per 90 minutes, he will be directly up against Lamine Yamal in this game and I expect some cynicism from the Italians in trying to curtail his attacking threat.

Dimarco managed a foul against Bosnia with just 25 minutes on the pitch and I expect him to pick up at least one in this encounter.

Lamine Yamal looked sharp against Croatia but came out unscathed but his man of the match performance against Brazil in Spain’s march friendly is more of an indicator of his likely time on the floor.

He was fouled four times in that game and given how new he is to the International scene, is growing in confidence with each match, averaging 1.34 fouls drawn per match. The Spanish will try to utilise his pace and trickery on the flank and I expect him to be doubled up on at times and fouled on multiple occasions.

Following similar logic to the above selection, Nico Williams will be one of the players targeted by the Italians for some rough treatment. He averages 1.18 fouls drawn per game and has been fouled twice in three of his last six games.

In terms of positional match ups, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, the Italian left back committed 3 fouls against Turkey in a recent friendly, and Matteo Darmian committed two on the right hand side of a back three against Bosnia. Alessandro Bastoni, the right sided centre back in a back four, also committed two fouls in their last game against Albania.