Sassuolo v Juventus
Sassuolo are one of the handful of teams in Serie A who do not really have anything to play for now. On 37 points, they’re not going to be getting dragged into the relegation battle despite there being some serious lows this season, but they also won’t be troubling the Europa League spots.
That could mean that Juventus do not have to do a whole lot to get all three points given they have been very good in recent weeks of dispatching of teams like Sassuolo. They’ve made light work of Verona, Sampdoria, Torino, Spezia and Salernitana in recent weeks and despite losing to Lazio last weekend, Max Allegri clearly is not letting his team drop their level against smaller sides.
They won’t be lacking motivation, either. They do stand a genuine chance of making the top four even though they were docked 15 points earlier in the season. They’re the second-best team on the pitch in Serie A and that should show at the Mapei Stadium.
Even with Dusan Vlahovic misfiring badly at the moment, between the likes of Filip Kostic, Angel Di Maria, Federico Chiesa, Adrien Rabiot and Arek Milik, there still seems to be enough in the squad to get them over the line in most games.
Sassuolo also have the fifth-worst defence in Serie A despite being 12th in the table so even if Juventus aren’t very entertaining to watch, expect them to work at least a handful of opportunities.
Brondby v AGF Aarhus
Sunday evening, Brøndby take on one of their biggest rivals as AGF are visiting the western outskirts of Copenhagen. The home side are in terrible form, while the away side are eyeing the third place and bronze medals.
After a promising start under head coach Jesper Sørensen, Brøndby have come down to earth recently. The yellow-blues have lost three Superliga matches in a row, and the hopes of qualifying for European football next season have gone from slim to none. They are currently nine points behind AGF on the 4th place, and they have played awful recently.
To make things worse, the club remains in a state of chaos as the ultras are in open fight against the club ownership and refusing to support the team during the matches. This means the away supporters are now the loudest at Brøndby Stadion and it clearly impacts the players that looks stressed and without the normal fire. Brøndby are without Tunesian World Cup player Anis Slimane and striker Mathias Kvistgaarden due to suspensions.
AGF remains unbeaten in 2023, and are coming off a 1-0 victory against third placed Viborg. The whites have won five games and drawn twice in their seven games, and the confidence in Aarhus is sky high. AGF are being strengthened by the comeback of midfield warrior Nicolai Poulsen as he returns from suspension, and he should go right into the starting lineup once again.
While Brøndby are favourites at home, we expect AGF to pull out of this match with points. They are in great form and there are no teams they would rather beat than Brøndby. Odds of 1.67 on AGF Double Chance at Betfair is more than alright here considering the situation.
Atletico Madrid v Almeria
In-form Atlético Madrid will be looking to continue their fine run in LaLiga as they take on Almería at the Estadio Cívitas Metropolitano on Sunday evening. They top the form table with 16 points from their last six games, also scoring more goals than anybody else over that period with 2.33 goals per 90.
In Sunday’s opponent, they take on the team with the worst away record in LaLiga. The Andalusian side have not won a single game on the road this campaign, picking up only four points in away fixtures in the league this season. That sets Atleti up for a strong display and they’ll be looking to replicate their recent home performances, such as the 6-1 destruction of Sevilla or the 3-0 thrashing of Valencia.
Even so, an Almería defeat does not necessarily mean that the Andalusians won’t get on the scoresheet. Atleti had a charity friendly against Beşiktaş in Turkey on Wednesday, so there could be some tired legs in this squad that has thrived in the absence of midweek football. Almería are fairly prolific too. Despite their poor away form, they have 1.11 xG per 90 away from home, ranking 12th in LaLiga, and they have netted seven times across their past five away games. They’ve also scored in four consecutive matches overall.
An Atleti win seems almost certain, but the best way to get value out of this game is to look for goals, with Diego Simeone’s side likely to get plenty of strikes on the scoresheet while Almería cannot be ruled out from grabbing at least one.
Braga v Gil Vicente
Despite losing star striker Vitinha to Marseille in the January window, it is shaping up to be a historic campaign for Braga, who sit third in the table, two points behind Porto and five above Sporting. Finishing third would give them access to the Champions League third qualifying round and provide them with a real opportunity to return to Europe’s elite competition after 11 years.
The Arsenalistas have one foot in the Taça de Portugal Final after beating second-tier Nacional 5-0 on Wednesday in the away leg of the semifinals, and they have won five of their last six in all competitions as well as 12 of their last 15 league matches.
At home, their record looks even better: apart from a 0-0 draw to Porto on March 19, Braga have failed to win at home on just two occasions since the start of September: a 1-0 loss to Chaves on October 9 and a 1-0 loss to Casa Pia on November 6, and I’m expecting them to pick up another win against Gil Vicente.
After falling to a 1-0 defeat to Estoril Praia to close out March, Gil Vicente have drawn 0-0 to Sporting and Chaves and currently sit 13th in the table. Each of Gil’s league matches this season have featured under 4.5 goals, and despite missing Tomás Araújo and Zé Carlos in defense due to suspension, I don’t expect that to change.
Gil have emerged as a stubborn opponent under Daniel Sousa, who took charge midway through the campaign, beating Porto, Marítimo, Famalicão, Casa Pia, and Vitória since the start of the year. Gil will have a tough time getting a point in Braga without Araújo, who has emerged as one of the top-performing center backs in Portugal since joining from Benfica on loan, but with Andrew Ventura in goal, they boast one of the most promising goalkeepers in Portugal and should be able to, at the very least, not get embarrassed.
However, with the likes of Iuri Medeiros, Abel Ruíz and Ricardo Horta in attack, Braga should have what it takes to pick up a customary home win against a Gil side that has not scored since March 12. One of Braga’s strongest qualities is their depth in attack and consequently, their supersubstitutes, with the likes of Bruma, Pizzi, Álvaro Djaló and Simon Banza in attack, they should have enough in the tank to blaze past Gil Vicente and pick up their 21st league win of the season.
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 10 games across all competitions and under Xabi Alonso, are a captivating team to watch. With seven games remaining, B04 occupy sixth and are just five points behind RB Leipzig who are fourth and in the final Champions League spot. On current form, qualifying for the Champions League is certainly possible for Alonso’s side.
One factor for their excellent form is the return of Florian Wirtz. The 19-year-old was injured in March 2022 and missed the remainder of the calendar year but upon returning in 2023, is now seemingly at his best. Deployed as a No. 10 or False 9 under Alonso, Wirtz has 12 goal contributions (4 goals, 8 assists) in 16 games across all competitions, and has initiated an excellent partnership with Moussa Diaby and Amine Adli – the attacking trio are fluid in attack and can cause Wolfsburg problems.
Defensively, Bayer Leverkusen still have a mistake in them with Lukas Hradecky not at his best. When Mitchel Bakker plays, B04 are prone on their left and Wolfsburg’s Jakub Kaminski will look to exploit this area with his pace, just as he did against Borussia Monchengladbach despite the defeat.
Of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 10 unbeaten games across all competitions, six of them have finished with Over 2.5 Goals and in their last nine Bundesliga games, they’ve kept just one clean sheet. Wolfsburg meanwhile don’t score as many as Bayer Leverkusen, but do pose a threat in attack with Kaminski, Felix Nmecha and Omar Marmoush or Jonas Wind leading the attack.
Wolfsburg have scored in four of their last five Bundesliga games and with Bayer Leverkusen playing on a Thursday night, Niko Kovac’s side will look to exploit their tiredness.
Don’t expect to see Alonso change his starting XI too much. Moussa Diaby holds the Spaniard in high praise and believes that the players are more focused under Alonso with the club now having a mentality. With a Champions League place still possible, don’t expect Leverkusen to rest on their laurels. Both teams to score is a potential outcome, but I’d expect Leverkusen to win outright with plenty of goals on show.
Trabzonspor v Besiktas
Trabzonspor’s season continues to get worse. Coach Abdullah Avci and later Orhan Ak, both involved in their last title winning team have departed and the team is now coached by academy staff. The club president has changed, and the future of many players at the club is uncertain. They lost against Kasımpaşa last week. Most of the squad is old and out-of-form, and there is little reason to expect this will improve.
Besiktas are on a winning streak and now they have the opportunity to creep towards the top of the league. Coach Senol Gunes has found a nice balance in his starting 11. This has of course been helped by the fact that many players, especially Nathan Redmond, are in-form. However, the regular XI will not feature, as forward Cenk Tosun and defensive midfielder Amir Hadziahmetovic will not be able to play in this match. They are therefore likely to play this game with a more offensive-minded midfield than usual.
Some serious changes to the starting XI is to be expected in Trabzonspor. There is an a serious opportunity for Besiktas in the very likely scenario that some young players will start the match for Trabzonspor. What would usually be a very difficult away game under normal conditions, instead this time, Trabzonspor is in very bad shape and Besiktas is in a very good position.
I will be taking the Draw No Bet option as the value is fantastic considering the protection it offers against a draw, but those seeking longer odds should back the Besiktas win at 2.38 on Betfair, as that seems by far the most likely outcome.
Ajax v FC Emmen
The talk around Ajax over the past few weeks has been about whether head coach Johnny Heitinga will remain in charge next season. With a new technical director, it could be that the club choose to go in a different direction.
I believe that Heitinga is still in a trial period. He is young and inexperienced; he had the initial honeymoon period of wins, but he lost to Feyenoord in the league and subsequently dropped more points at Go Ahead. A Dutch Cup semi-final win in De Kuip will have boosted his chances of getting the job, and I think that a second-placed finish and Dutch Cup final win will be enough to get him the job going forwards.
The primary problem for Heitinga is how he gets his side to beat tough opposition domestically and in Europe. He has placed Dusan Tadic more centrally in order to get the advantages of his link-up play, which has reaped rewards especially against weaker opposition.
Kenneth Taylor has received some criticism this season for his stagnating development, he has not yet turned into the kind of quality midfielder that Ajax need to keep possession and dominate games – although he does it quite well in less challenging, games like this one where Ajax can usually go on and win by three or four.
Emmen are the joint-second lowest goal-scorers in the Eredivisie. Their biggest goal-scoring threats are Ole Romeny, who isn’t really an out-and-out striker, and Mark Diemers, who can be a threat from set-pieces. Against sides around them, and at home, Emmen can put up a decent fight, as shown by their 3-3 draw against Ajax earlier in the season.
Away to the league’s top sides, Emmen lost and didn’t even score at Twente, PSV or Feyenoord. I anticipate a similar result here.
Fortuna Sittard v AZ
AZ’s season is stuttering to a complete stop. Once top of the Eredivisie and victorious over two legs against Lazio in Europe, AZ are now winless in four. Even before this run, Pascal Jansen’s men had been scraping wins, usually by a scoreline of 1-0.
Jansen has been criticised by AZ supporters for a lack of tactical adjustments. However, I believe that the lack of depth that I mentioned at the start of the season is finally coming back to haunt them.
The same front three is played twice a week: Jesper Karlsson, Vangelis Pavlidis and Jens Odgaard. At the moment, all three of them are very inconsistent, picking up minor injuries from playing so often, getting tired from playing a demanding style so often, or having no-one playing better than them off the bench to give the manager any sort of selection headache.
On Thursday, AZ lost 2-0 to Anderlecht (who are mid-table in the Belgian league) in their first leg of their Europa Conference League quarter-final — a desperately disappointing result and first-half performance from which there was no real reply. Jansen hardly made any tweaks to the side that started the game, and AZ seemed to give up for the last ten minutes when they couldn’t get a goal back.
I suspect that mid-table Fortuna, spearheaded by captain Burak Yilmaz will take advantage of this poor run from the Alkmaarders. The home side have little to play for, but they do have an expectant crowd, and Yilmaz has been an excellent acquisition in terms of his leadership; he will smell AZ’s fragility and lead his side to a positive result.
Marseille v Troyes
Marseille owe their fans a result at Stade Velodrome. Despite the atmospheric venue being packed on a weekly basis, OM have gone five Ligue 1 matches without winning in front of their home supporters. Now the chips are down with their Champions League place under threat, and in front of another crowd of 60,000+, they should have too much for a Troyes side that appears to be in a miserable state when they face off this Sunday evening.
OM have dropped to second after a run of three draws in their last four, including disappointing ties against Strasbourg and Montpellier at home. Both these teams travelled to the Velodrome in some kind of form, though, and Troyes simply do not have that.
Indeed, Patrick Kisnorbo’s men appear divided. After last weekend’s 2-0 loss against Clermont, captain Adil Rami seemed relieved when he said that he “only had eight games left under this coach”, while there was evidence of infighting as some players were accused of not being up for the relegation fight.
Little wonder. Since beating Strasbourg in their first match in 2023, they have lost 11 of 14 matches, including all seven away games. Troyes have not just lost these away fixtures, they have been well beaten, losing five of them by at least two goals. The two they were not hammered in were against opponents in the relegation zone when the matches were played.
Marseille boss Igor Tudor, meanwhile, lamented the defensive nature of Lorient and French football after a 0-0 away draw last weekend. Troyes are less likely to play with a packed defence given they try to abide by the City Football Group’s philosophy. Kisnorbo may not have much choice but to go ultra-defensive for this match, but it’s unlikely to do his beleaguered side much good.
Roma v Udinese
Don’t build your weekend around this one. AS Roma are really struggling for goals this season considering the players that they have and that is unlikely to change against a very stubborn Udinese side.
A reason why that could be compounded even further is the fact that both Paulo Dybala and Tammy Abraham went off injured in the 1-0 Europa League defeat away at Feyenoord. Whilst the latter has been in poor form, so has Andrea Belotti and basically anyone that Jose Mourinho chooses to lead the line.
The strong defence will very much be the reason Roma make it into the Champions League should they manage it, rather than the attackers who have underwhelmed.
Udinese are not really the sort of team to take the game too aggressively to Roma at the Stadio Olimpico and they also have the sort of defence that Roma have really struggled to pick a way through this season. When they have managed it, it is usually Dybala that has done it.
Roma’s home form has been so good this season that they are certainly expected to take all three points, but it will likely be added to the long list of 1-0 and 2-0 wins that they have amassed this season at the Stadio Olimpico.
Flamengo v Coritiba
After five months in the wilderness, the Brasileirão finally returns. During this period, football only really stopped for the month of December, with various State Championships and Regional tournaments taking the centre stage.
Last season, Flamengo had a terrible start to the 2022 campaign, which eventually ended up costing them a serious title charge. They’ll be eager to start this season on the front foot, but things haven’t been rosy for the Rubro-Negro in 2023.
Vítor Pereira replaced Dorival Junior and placed himself on the backfoot from the off as Flamengo suffered a 4-3 loss at the hands of Palmeiras in the Supercopa do Brasil. Then in the Club World Cup, Flamengo were stunned by Al-Hilal in the semifinals, which was followed with a Recopa Sudamericana defeat to Ecuadorian side, Independiente del Valle. The final nail in the coffin for Pereira came after a 4-1 loss to Fluminense in the Rio State Championship final.
In midweek, Flamengo suffered a surprise 2-0 loss to Serie D Maringa in the Copa do Brasil first leg, their third loss in a row.
On Friday evening, it was confirmed that Argentine, Jorge Sampaoli will take over at Flamengo, however, this game comes to soon for him to be in the dugout. It’s likely that he will be in attendance which should rise performance level of the Rubro Negro players.
Their opponents, Coritiba have also had a tough start to 2023, suffering a quarter-final exit in the Campeonato A with a 3-1 aggregate loss to Cascavel.
Because of their hiccup in the state championship, they have only played twice in the space of a month and haven’t really improved… First, they scraped past Cricuima in the Copa do Brasil second round, which was followed up with a 3-3 home draw with second-tier Sport Recife in the third round of the competition.
Because of both sides struggles in recent weeks, it’s difficult to pick a clear winner in this one, despite Flamengo being clear favourites. It is probable that this match will result in multiple goals. Coxa’s last six matches have had over 2.5 goals in five of them, and The Rubro Negro has had over 2.5 goals in five out of seven matches.
LA Galaxy v LAFC
The first staging of ‘El Trafico’, the biggest match in MLS at present, takes place on Sunday evening when the two Los Angeles teams meet as LA Galaxy welcome their city rivals Los Angeles FC in a huge showdown.
This match is always big for the Galaxy but this might be the biggest derby they have been involved in. They would have been on a revenge mission anyway after losing to LAFC in the playoffs last term, but the home side have failed to win any of their opening six matches this season and need to get off the mark else there could be significant consequences.
Los Angeles FC have no such problems. They are undefeated this term and have made it through to the semi-finals of the Champions League and are generally in a fantastic place with plenty of squad depth and a ruthless edge at both ends of the pitch.
Galaxy could have Javier Hernandez available for the first time this season which should help them sort out an attack which has offered just three goals in their opening six matches, but on the flip side of that they will be without experienced defender Martin Caceres after his daft sending off a week ago.
The big concern for Greg Vanney heading into this one is a largely goal shy Houston Dynamo scored three times against his side last week and now they have to contend with a rampant LAFC attack which contains Denis Bouanga, who has opened the season on fire, and Carlos Vela who often shines in this derby, without a key defensive man.
This will be ‘El Trafico’ number 16 in MLS and the gap between the two has never been wider. These matches are often high scoring but with Galaxy a little gun shy I’ll back the LAFC goals rather than the match ones.
In the previous 15 meetings between these two Los Angeles FC have scored two or more in 10 of them. At even money I think they are a good bet to make that 11 in 16.
Nacional Potosi v Universitario de Vinto
Both teams find themselves in rather mixed form at the moment. Nacional have two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five while Universitario had their unbeaten run of five halted by Wilstermann last week.
These teams have played twice last year once at Cochabamba, with the home team winning 3-1 and again in Potosi earlier this season in the League Cup when they drew 2-2.
Despite Universitario showing an improvement on last season’s all-round performance and Nacional having struggled ever since they were spectacularly booted out of the Libertadores by El Nacional 9-2; they have stuck with Andrada their manager and I feel they are too strong and wily at home and should do enough to win.
Cerro Porteno v Sportivo Trindense
Cerro Porteño continued their recovery after the Libertad rout with a third straight victory over Sportivo Ameliano playing some great football in the first half. Sportivo Trinidense are experiencing a mini-renaissance themselves with two consecutive 1-0 wins to move back into fifth.
Facundo Sava is still regularly rotating his side but finding the right results as he carefully manages his squad with an eye on the Copa Libertadores. Claudio Aquino and Federico Carrizo haven’t played together in the league replacing one another from the bench. Diego Churin sat out versus Tacuary but started against Ameliano where he managed to get himself sent off moments after being subbed off.
Juan Patiño remains injured and like Churin will miss the match.
José Arrúa has rediscovered the winning formula with 25 year old Alex Álvarez scoring the only goal in both games. More impressive that individual goalscoring exploits have been the back-to-back clean sheets which followed a run of nine games conceding a goal. There hasn’t been any personnel changes at the back but an added intensity and improved collective organization.
Cerro Porteño will be missing key players in Churin and Patiño but there is a possibility both Wilder Viera and Ángel Lucena return in midfield. They are generally too strong at home to lose, just one defeat in 24 at La Nueva Olla, but under Sava they have regularly conceded. Trinidense themselves usually find the net, only failing to score in one of their last 10 league matches.
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