IFK Mariehamn v VPS

Four wins in their last five games means Mariehamn come into this match with the promise of a European Conference League play-off awaiting the winner. Veteran striker John Owoeri has scored in five consecutive matches to lead this charge and will fancy his chances against a VPS side who have been porous at the back all year. Mariehamn were coasting away to 10-man HIFK last week but were rotating heavily and almost gave it away. After the start they had, guaranteed safety was enough, but they go into this unlikely final day shootout with momentum and goals.

It’s no certainty though – VPS have won all four games since the league split and swatted Oulu away last week. They have to win this fixture as well to get through to the play off but despite the relative downturn in form of Kalle Multanen, the midfield have started scoring and provide a wider threat – Joonas Vahtera has three in his last four starts. VPS were a surprising treat this year, at one point the top scorers in the division and both of these sides are adding value to this controversial league structure.

With a potentially big prize at stake and two sides in good goal scoring form, it’s hard to see either keeping a clean sheet. A draw will be enough for VPS but it’s not something they’ve done much of this season with just four in their 26 games. It’s likely to be the most open match of the final round and well worth tuning in for.

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AC Oulu v Ilves

Despite losing to VPS last week, an amazing goal from Rafael Floro brought shine and the guarantee of seventh place remains as Oulu will treat this match as a necessary exercise ahead of their Europa play off against SJK or Inter in midweek. They’ve begun the process of strengthening for 2023 already but this season has been a roaring success no matter what happens. There is no word yet on whether Karjalainen or Liimatta will be present for the new challenges, and they will leave big holes to fill. Michael Lopez reached double figures for goals and will fancy adding in this fixture.

The Ilves season has been hugely unsatisfactory, and they’ll be glad to get the rebuilding process underway. The mixture of loan signings and foreign journeymen hasn’t worked and only the stardust of Petteri Pennanen has kept the wolf from the door. Being knocked out of the cup by their own reserves was the low point but being the only team to lose to HIFK isn’t much better. Toni Kallio has had a full season in charge, and this has not been a good advert with his predecessor Jarkko Wiss heading to Inter. After paying a fee for Adam Larsson, they’ll expect more from him next season, yet he has been outscored by Tuco.

Oulu will head into the play-offs with a win here and put Ilves out of their misery. Hopefully their next meeting will be a lot closer.

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Honka v Haka

After taking plenty of time to re-establish an identity after bankruptcy and a change of ownership, Honka hit upon a strong side this year, adding youth and expression to their side. Last season they couldn’t attract 300 fans for their final home game, yet they got nearly 4000 against HJK last month. Agon Sadiku’s fourteen goals have catapulted the side to an unlikely bronze medal and kept the top two on their toes while Rui Modesto was a reckless danger on the right wing. Like most bright talents in Veikkausliiga, it’s likely they’ll move and Honka have made plenty of money in recent seasons and will do so again.

Adding the 17 goals of Lee Erwin turned the resolute but limited Haka into a surprise package, guaranteeing fourth place and a two-legged tie away from Europe next season. But Erwin is suspended for this match and is almost certain to leave for free – a giant act to follow. There have been other sources of goals, Ollie Whyte and Stavros Zarokostas are fast and unpredictable, but they will struggle against this Honka defence who won’t have to worry about Erwin. Dominican defender Luiyi de Lucas has been a rock at the back and his captain with Niklas Friberg shows there is still a foundation behind the goals.

Honka have guaranteed their presence in the Conference League next summer and if this is the end of this phase of the side, it has been a great season and a lot of fun to watch.

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HJK v KuPS

Finland hoped that this would be the showpiece match of the season, a title decider igniting the interest in the way 2021 ended. Instead, HJK confirmed their 32nd title last week with a solid win away to Haka and this will serve as a coronation instead.

The strongest and deepest squad, HJK overcame a lot of obstacles to reach this peak. Big names injured, a coach whose old school methods caused rifts and eyes more on Europe than at home. But they put together strong winning runs when KuPS stumbled and were able to share goals more than their rivals. Anthony Olusanya has been the key in recent weeks, scoring plenty and always looking dangerous, ably assisted by Lucas Lingman and Santeri Hostikka. They thoroughly deserve their crown and will be even more dangerous next year.

KuPS started 2022 so promisingly, their record unbeaten run extended and freely scoring. By the time their Conference League campaign came to an end in Switzerland, coach Simo Valakari was looking again at the Motherwell job and their attacking freedom was stunted as Tim Vayrynen’s goals dried up. Janis Ikaunieks has done well on occasion but is set to leave along with Diogo Tomas and they will need to be shrewd in the market over the winter.

HJK had to travel back from Bulgaria after losing in the Europa League but will lift themselves for this, lifting the trophy in front of their fans. There won’t be many goals but HJK should come out on top.

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