The price on Kristiansund to win this match looks very generous when you consider the recent form of both teams. Kristiansund are only 3rd in the table but they are one of the big favourites for promotion and their underlying metrics have been excellent. KBK have only won 2 of their last 6 games but the most recent fixture did result in a comfortable 4-1 victory vs Moss. This Kristiansund side packs a decent punch and they have the clear best xG per 90 mins of any team in this division (1.74). The problem for KBK is at the back where they’ve kept just one clean sheet all season. That is an area of concern but they possess enough firepower to overcome this deficiency. Benjamin Stokke leads the way with 7 league goals and players such as Alvheim and Kartum have also enjoyed strong campaigns.

Asane finally won for the first time this season when they beat fellow strugglers Bryne 2-1 away from home. They are still at rock bottom of the table though on just 8 points and this has been a disappointing year so far. Their underlying xG and xGA metrics are not as bad and they sit mid to lower table in most statistical categories. Asane have been very similar to Kristiansund in that they’ve only kept one clean sheet all season, the difference is that they don’t have the attacking quality to bail them out of trouble as often. This is a team which has underachieved in the final third of the field and only netted 1.08 goals per game as opposed to their xG of 1.37.

The home team are not terrible by any means, but their overall ability and individual class are not at the same level as Kristiansund’s. Let’s not forget that the visitors were relegated from the Eliteserien and teams dropping down to this level usually have a good record. I think it’s a surprise to see KBK as big as 2.0 to win this game. They are a promotion-chasing unit and should have enough to get the 3 points facing a side who are at rock bottom.

After a fairly poor start to the season, KFUM Oslo has now roared into life and won their last four consecutive games. It was always going to be a difficult transition after losing long-standing manager Jorgen Isnes to Eliteserien side Stromsgodset. Assistant coach Johannes Moesgaard took over and initially tried to do things his own way by switching to a 4-3-3 formation. He soon reverted to the familiar 3-4-3 system though and it has paid dividends. KFUM have been a perennial playoff team in recent years and now that they are up to 6th place it looks like they will challenge in those sorts of spots again. They look on fire and won their last 3 games to nil. KFUM have one of the best xGA averages per match (1.28) and is hitting form at the right time.

Sandnes are another team with promotion and playoff aspirations. Their form has been inconsistent though and they’ve only won 2 of their last 10 games. Consecutive defeats just before the international break have hindered their progress. One of their big problems has been keeping clean sheets with just 1 in their last 8 games. In that period Sandnes conceded 14 goals and certainly had a leaky defence.

Some key KFUM players, especially in midfield Simon Hestnes and Robin Rasch have gradually come into form and their performances in the engine room in the middle of the park have been crucial. Both have been scoring and creating goals which have aided their cause. Backing the home team to win at 1.70 looks like the best bet here. They are in fantastic form and the big difference between these two teams is at the back where KFUM are much more reliable. Over 2.5 goals is also a possibility here but the 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline could be in play. Backing KFUM straight on the nose appears to be the best angle.

It has been a surprisingly poor season for Molde so far. They have lost 5 out of 11 matches which is far too many for a team of their aspirations. They have been involved in some strange matches though where the statistics and metrics have been distorted. Their most recent defeat was a 0-1 loss away to Odd, but they amassed an xG of over 2.25 in that fixture. Some poor finishing and excellent goalkeeping cost them dearly, which rather sums up their season. Molde still has the third-best xG average of any team in the Eliteserien though and should be performing better. At the other end of the field, they have the best xGA in the league so statistically they are ticking all of the right boxes.

Haugesund has won their last two consecutive league games but haven’t been very convincing. Victories facing Godset and Sandefjord are hardly anything to write home about. They have to be given credit for digging out some results but based on performances and metrics, Haugesund will do well to avoid a relegation battle. They have the worst xG and xGA of any team in the Eliteserien with their 1.83 xGA, especially a huge concern. They are massive underdogs here for a reason and there is a vast gulf in quality between the two teams.

You won’t get rich backing Molde at 1.15 but if you combine them to win and score over 2.5 goals then the odds rise to an improved 1.53. Molde are very capable of scoring three goals all on their own but this also covers for a potential 2-1 scoreline. There is little to suggest that this won’t result in a comfortable home win and Haugesund are unlikely to put up too much resistance.

One of the biggest names in Norwegian football has endured a miserable campaign. Rosenborg are down as low as 9th in the standings which is simply not good enough for a team of their stature. After weeks of speculation, they have finally sacked manager Kjetil Rekdal and replaced him with Svein Maalen until the end of the season. Maalen, who is very familiar with the city of Trondheim had a very successful spell with Ranheim – another club in the region. The new manager has already talked about some big changes which he hopes to implement quickly. Rosenborg will be switching back to their traditional 4-3-3 system and ditching the 3-5-2 which Rekdal preferred. Maalen has talked about the need to provide more entertainment for the fans. Everything that Rosenborg have done this season almost needs to be forgotten because this will be a different version.

This fixture against Sarpsborg could be a tricky game because their opponents are capable of anything on the day. Stefan Billborn’s men have lost consecutive league games and suddenly gone off form after what was a solid start to the campaign. Billborn is known for his attacking and high press style, but Sarpsborg has adapted slightly differently this season and been less frantic. Now that results have become poorer then I do wonder if he will revert to his tried and tested methods. Sarpsborg have won on both of their last two trips to this stadium which is sure to be a morale booster. They will not be scared travelling to Trondheim especially facing a team in poor form.

Over 2.5 goals immediately stand out as a good potential bet. Rosenborg will experience new manager syndrome for this matchup and there should be excitement from the fans about a change of style to a more entertaining system. Rosenborg cannot be relied on to win this game but they should score at least a couple of goals and Sarpsborg are more than capable of contributing. This is likely to be a frantic end-to-end type of match so taking over 2.5 makes a lot of sense.

High-flying Gremio play host to the league’s bottom side Coritiba at the weekend, where one side will be hoping to keep up their good form whilst the other will be desperate for their first victory of the league season.

Gremio are on a wonderful run of form at the moment, having won five of their last six matches in all competitions. After a 3-0 loss to Flamengo, Gremio replied in style with a comfortable 3-1 home victory over America Mineiro. After falling a goal behind, a red card for Eder, saw Gremio take full advantage, dominating the game which was backed up by the expected goals statistics with the Porto Alegre side having 1.98 compared to America’s 0.70. They will be eager to keep up their good form here and know a victory could lift them up to second place.

Prior to the match with America, all the talk was about Luis Suarez and his potential retirement due to knee pain, however, he responded by putting in a man-of-the-match performance, showing he’s still fit and prepared for the challenges of professional football.

Gremio will be without; Pepe, Diego Souza, Geromel, Everton and Fabio who miss out due to injury.

Whilst Gremio are flying high, the same can’t be said about Coritiba who sit at rock bottom of the Brasileirão without a victory in any of their eleven league matches. In their last league outing, despite having an XG of 1.75 compared to Internacional’s 0.85, it was Inter who ran out 1-0 winners thanks to a second-half spot-kick from Pedro Henrique. Coxa will be desperate for an improvement in results and need to do so, sooner, rather than later.

For this duel, Coritiba will be without the suspended Robson.

With Coritiba looking hopeless and Gremio on a great run, it should be a comfortable afternoon for Renato Gaúcho side.

Red Bull Bragantino are on a great run at the moment having lost only once in their last eleven battles. After earning a solid point on the road against Atletico Mineiro, Bragantino hosted South American Champions Flamengo on Thursday evening. The Red Bull side put in one of the performances of the season, as they played Flamengo off the park in a 4-0 rout. Bragantino had 30 shots with 12 being on target, whilst limiting Flamengo to six shots with none testing Lucao between the sticks. Their XG of 3.32 was far greater than Flamengo’s 0.65. The Red Bull club would love to emulate that performance in this duel.

One of their top performers on the day was Colombian Henry Mosquera who netted twice.

For this duel, Bragantino will be without; Bruninho, Leo Ortiz, Helinho, Raul, Natan, and Talisson. They will have the return of goalkeeper Cleiton who was suspended last time out.

Their opponents, Goias, have been in ok form in recent weeks with two draws and a win from their last three outings. Despite this, they’ll be hoping to improve their results as they currently sit in the bottom four.

After drawing 2-2 at home with Fluminense, Goiás travelled to Rio de Janeiro to take on Vasco da Gama, where they enjoyed a 1-0 victory on the road thanks to a second-half goal from Everton Morelli. Goias XG was way less than Vasco’s with 0.39 compared to 2.07, showing it was a smash-and-grab performance.

Willian Oliveira will miss out here due to a ban.

With Bragantino in great form at the moment and being at home, it’s hard to see Goias getting anything out of the game, in what should be a comfortable evening for the hosts.

With eight of their players being on international duty over the past week (as far afield as New Jersey) and their minds set on Thursday’s Libertadores game in Sao Paulo against Palmeiras where they know a draw will be enough to ensure they top the group, you would expect Bolivar to be on an energy saving mission come Sunday against Real Santa Cruz. However, one can’t argue with history or numbers, and the fact that Bolivar has notched up over 4.11 goals a game against Real Santa Cruz in league history makes for ominous reading.

Real Santa Cruz are punching above their weight this season, they are currently fourth and on the path to an international tournament next season. Efmamjjasond Gonzalez is proving to be an inspired signing with his eight goals this season. Bolivar for their part despite playing some of the most entertaining football seen in years and a wildly successful Libertadores campaign (four clean sheets and 100% home record, plus an impressive 4-0 win in Asuncion) have slipped off the pace somewhat locally and are nine points behind leaders and arch-rivals The Strongest. They know they cannot afford to drop any more points from here on in and this game will be the chance to start that chase.

Expect over 2.5 goals and a Bolivar win