All evidence points towards a Swansea win here and even at a short price I am comfortable including this in our bet builder.

Starting with the Swans, they are currently unbeaten at home under Matos. Whilst tbeir run of wins stopped at four, they have since dismissed Blackburn at home as well.

There is a huge xG differential when looking at Sheffield Wednesday's away league matches this season. They have won only once on the road, and that was back in September at Portsmouth, and they have lost their last five away matches too.

The xG data supports this lack of form, with Wednesday creating only 0.87 xG, but conceding 2.15 xG per match as well, for a differential of 1.28 xG per away match. To into a match expecting to concede more than a goal's worth of chances to your hosts makes it difficult to get anything out of the game.

I am expecting some possession and territorial dominance for the Swans here. Under Vitor Matos there hasn't yet been a home game for Swansea in which their opponents have seen more of the ball than the home side. Wednesday aren't dominated as much as casual observers might think, averaging 46% possession this season, but even so, they are conceding a lot of corners.

This season as a whole Wednesday are conceding seven corners on average in their away league matches. The last two away matches have seen them concede eight and nine corners, and they have conceded over this line on eight occasions away from home in the league.

When this data is then coupled with Swansea's home record of earning 6.57 corners per match on average since Matos took over, then I think this line looks highly achievable and therefore worthy of inclusion to the bet builder at the prices.

Tymon only averages 0.64 shots per 90 over the course of the season as a whole, but his recent form in terms of getting shots away has been much more consistent.

Tymon has had at least one shot in each of his last five Championship starts, and in 10 of his last 11. Taking Swansea's last 10 games as a sample, Tymon is actually averaging 1.24 shots per 90, which makes this bet far more enticing.

Tymon is also freer to attack and get shots away at home. Taking Swansea's last ten home games, Tymon's shot average goes up again to 1.38.

We also have to consider, of course, that the opponents in this case are Sheffield Wednesday. Wednesday are conceding almost 17 shots per away game this season, which is an incredibly high total compared to an average of around 11 for the league as a whole.

Like many of these young Wednesday players, Otegbayo is very much learning the professional game as he goes, but there is very little forgiveness in the Championship.

The way that this apprenticeship seems to be manifesting itself in Otegbayo's record is that he is conceding more fouls than one would expect, especially from that position in the centre of a back three.

Traditionally, that central position doesn't compete in many duels or commit many fouls, but Otegbayo has committed eight fouls in his last three matches. Swansea play a genuine centre forward in Zan Vipotnik, and though he is not as physical as many modern centre forwards, especially Championship ones.

He should at least occupy Otegbayo, and the Slovenian has been fouled at least twice in a game himself on multiple occasions this season as well.

This is without considering set-piece fouls or fouls on the likes of Liam Cullen, who averages over a foul against him per 90, getting into central areas.