KFUM Oslo v Åsane

Beating Grorud 3-1 away from home at the weekend moved KFUM Oslo back into the playoff mixer and they are up to 6th place in the OBOS Ligaen. Their form has been mixed recently and that victory ended a run of four games without a win, which should give them a boost. KFUM have actually lost their last two consecutive home games, but each was against strong opposition in Start and Ranheim. This a much easier looking fixture and their strike force, which has scored an impressive 31 goals this season should be able to fill their boots. KFUM have a legitimately dangerous attack and have the fourth best xG in the division (29.92). Their goals are spread throughout the whole team, and they do not rely on any individuals. This is a decent combined squad which has a strong core in the middle with Robin Rasch and Simen Hestnes the key players. KFUM actually have the second best xGA in the league (22.61) but have conceded 27 times in total and underachieved with this metric.

Åsane head into this match on the back of a 1-1 draw vs Sogndal. It was actually one of their best performances of the season and they probably should have won, outgunning Sogndal 1.84 vs 1.03 on xG. Åsane are a poor side though with some of the worst metrics in the division. Their xGA is the second worst in the league (31.45) and they have been even worse than that on the field by letting in 37 goals. Their offense is ranked third worst for xG (19.38) but in fairness has been improving recently. Åsane have scored at least one goal in 6 of their last 8 matches. They have recently been active in the transfer market by signing two left-sided players Knut Haga and Lars Kilen from the third tier of Norwegian football. Åsane have to be given some credit for playing so well vs Sogndal after they lost 0-6 to Sandnes in their most recent away match. They have struggled on the road this season though with just 1 win in 8 games.

KFUM Oslo should win this match, but a better bet looks like over 2.5 goals. A massive 14 out of 17 KFUM Oslo matches have ended over 2.5 this season and they have a habit of getting involved in shootouts. They could cover this line on their own and did in the reverse fixture last month which they won 3-0. Åsane have a knack of scoring goals though and it would not be a surprise to see them score here either. They drew 2-2 at Fredrikstad a few weeks ago and have actually only lost 2 of their last 7 games. Whichever end they come, at least three goals should be scored in this game.

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Sandnes vs Sogndal

Both teams were involved in 1-1 draws at the weekend and are currently situated inside the playoffs. For Sandnes, it was a rare match which finished under 2.5 goals for just the fourth time in 17 matches. Their games are usually littered with goals and the last time they played at home they smashed Åsane 6-0. Sandnes will probably feel as though they should have beaten Raufoss at the weekend. They outgunned them 1.70 to 0.44 on xG but could only draw. It ended a run of four consecutive wins in which they were on fire in attack, netting a huge 14 goals. In Martin Ramsland and Jostein Ekeland they have two reliable attackers who know how to hit the back of the net. Midfielder Ingvald Sandvik Halgunset has also weighed in with six individual goals this season. Sandnes do have an achilles heel defensively with an average xGA per 90 mins of 1.60. They have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 13 matches which is certainly a concern.

Sogndal are another team who have defensive issues and their 27 goals conceded is the joint most of any team in the current top ten. They drew 1-1 away to Åsane at the weekend but did not play well and were lucky to get a point after losing the xG stats 1.84 to 1.03. Sogndal are unbeaten in five straight games and have only lost 1 of their last 8. They have recently been involved in some wild matches such as the 3-3 draw with Ranheim and 4-3 win vs Stabaek. Tore Andre Flo’s 4-4-2 system is always going to produce plenty of chances and goals with two strikers upfront. Youngster Jonas Gronner has been in especially good form netting 7 goals in 9 appearances. He scored an impressive hat-trick vs Stabaek. Sogndal have already been active in this transfer window and signed Isaac Twum from Mjøndalen. He will strengthen their midfield and give them some extra muscle. 

It is a tough choice whether to bet over 2.5 goals or take both teams to score in this match. The 1-1 draw is a slight danger because I don’t think either team will want to lose, but each side is definitely capable of covering over 2.5 on their own considering their offensive strength. Sandnes beat Åsane 6-0 here in their most recent home game and there is a slight danger they could sweep Sogndal completely. I am expecting a home win. Sandnes are the better team and with home advantage should be able to make it count. Because over 2.5 is priced slightly bigger I will opt for this selection in what should realistically be a wide open and high scoring game between two very attack minded teams.

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