Djed Spence to commit at least one foul is a standout value of 1.73 with Paddy Power for Tottenham’s EFL Cup semi-final clash against Liverpool on Wednesday night. This value is notably higher than other bookmakers, with bet365 offering odds of 1.62 and William Hill significantly shorter at 1.30. Paddy Power’s odds imply a 57.8% chance, but deeper analysis of Spence’s recent performances and the context of this fixture suggest the likelihood is much closer to William Hill’s implied probability of 76.9%.

Due to Tottenham’s ongoing injury concerns, Djed Spence is likely to feature prominently, if not start, in this crucial cup tie. Spence has established himself as a regular in the lineup, playing a key defensive role in recent matches. His aggressive style of play has resulted in 6 fouls across his last 5 appearances at an average of 1.14 per 90 minutes, highlighting his tendency to engage physically in duels. Whether deployed at left-back or right-back, Spence will face formidable challenges from Liverpool’s dynamic attackers.

Liverpool’s wingers are among the most fouled players in the league, combining pace, skill, and directness to trouble full-backs. Spence will likely have to contend with one or more of the following threats:

• Mohamed Salah: Drawing an average of 1.23 fouls per 90, Salah’s dribbling and quick changes of direction make him a constant target for challenges.
• Cody Gakpo: Averaging 1.62 fouls drawn per 90, Gakpo’s ability to glide past defenders and operate in wide spaces poses a significant threat.
• Luis Díaz: Though primarily deployed as a central striker of late, Díaz occasionally drifts to the left flank to allow the inclusion of Darwin Nuñez, drawing 1.29 fouls per 90.
• Federico Chiesa: If the new signing features, his Serie A track record suggests he’ll continue to be a handful, with an average of 1.5 fouls drawn per 90 last season.

Given Liverpool’s relentless attack and the heavy workload placed on Tottenham’s full-backs, Spence is almost certain to be heavily involved defensively. Whether tasked with containing Salah, Gakpo, or another winger, his physical and proactive style makes at least one foul highly probable. In this context, the odds of 1.73 represent excellent value compared to William Hill’s implied probability.