Tottenham v Man Utd 54/1 Longshot Betting Tips [Europa League Final]

Tottenham v Man Utd 54/1 Longshot Betting Tips [Europa League Final]

Tuesday 20 May, 20251 min read
Avatar

Harry Nye

Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.

In this article...
54/1 Tottenham v Man United Longshot Bet Builder
  • Tottenham v Man United
  • Europa League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 55.39

Pedro Porro to Commit 2+ Fouls

While Porro is adept going forward, his defensive duties will be sternly tested by United’s left-sided threats. His season average sits at 0.77 fouls per 90, Porro has already committed three fouls across his three meetings with Manchester United this season, highlighting his struggles against the Red Devils’ left-sided threat.

It’s not just Patrick Dorgu (who draws 2.81 fouls per 90) that Porro must contend with. He’ll also be tasked with dealing with either Bruno Fernandes (1.22 fouls won per 90) or Alejandro Garnacho (1.81 per 90), both of whom frequently drive into wide areas and engage defenders, making Porro’s foul line an enticing inclusion in this longshot.

Patrick Dorgu to Commit 2+ Fouls

The young wing back has impressed this season with his dynamism and intensity, but his aggressive defensive style often leads him into trouble. He averages 1.74 fouls per 90 and has committed 2+ fouls in five of his last six starts, including both legs of the semi-final against Athletic Bilbao. The big occasion appears to increase his defensive output and indiscipline.

Dorgu is likely to line up opposite Pedro Porro once again, against whom he committed a foul and received a yellow card in their only previous meeting. Tottenham’s right-hand side, spearheaded by Porro, draws 3.24 fouls per 90, making this a crucial battle.

Pedro Porro to be Fouled 2+ Times

Porro’s driving runs and tendency to overlap make him a natural target for fouls. He averages 1.07 fouls won per 90, winning at least one in 11 of his last 12 appearances and 2+ in four of his last eight.

In previous games against United, he has won one and two fouls respectively, and the increased stakes here point towards another combative showing. Whether challenged by Dorgu (1.74 fouls per 90), Bruno Fernandes (0.9), Alejandro Garnacho (0.54) or Leny Yoro (0.91), Porro is well positioned to draw multiple fouls.

Patrick Dorgu to be Fouled 3+ Times

To round off this bet, we return to Dorgu, this time focusing on his ball-carrying ability. Averaging 2.81 fouls won per 90 minutes, Dorgu leads all United players by a whole foul, showcasing his elusive, attacking style that regularly forces defenders into rash challenges.

He’s won three or more fouls in four of his last seven appearances, and at least two in 11 of his 16 starts this season, making the case for a third in a high-stakes European final all the more plausible.

Operating down the left, Dorgu will likely be matched up against Yves Bissouma and Brennan Johnson, who average 1.46 and 1.03 fouls committed per 90, respectively. Their recent form strengthens the angle:

  • Bissouma has committed at least one foul in each of his last nine appearances (when playing more than 13 minutes).

  • Johnson has committed at least one foul in each of his last seven starts and in all five of his most recent European starts.

The nature of a final, tense, fast-paced, and full of one-on-one duels only increases the likelihood of fouls in wide areas. With Dorgu frequently involved in both attacking transitions and recovery phases, his role ensures he’ll draw plenty of contact throughout. If Pedro Porro, who will likely handle the majority of Dorgu’s pressure, contributes two fouls himself, then the third is well within reach for his team-mates.

At 54/1, this longshot offers smart value based on statistical trends, positional battles, and the tactical tension that a final guarantees.

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.

Tottenham v Man United 54/1 Longshot Betting Tips

European finals are regularly very tense, with tactical battles, fine margins and tempers being lost. As two English heavyweights, Tottenham and Manchester United, look to salvage underwhelming domestic campaigns with continental silverware, the opportunity for a fouls-based longshot emerges, particularly given the combative nature of this matchup.

The card markets are already suggesting a fiery encounter, and with 24.3 fouls per game across their three meetings this season, this final promises no shortage of flashpoints. That average climbs even higher when we look at recent European finals, which featured 33 and 31 fouls, respectively. With pressure, history, and reputations on the line, this 50/1+ longshot is built around a key duel on the flank: Patrick Dorgu against Pedro Porro.

We also have further in-depth coverage of this game in our Tottenham v Man United Betting Preview, as well as our Tottenham v Man United Bet Builder Tips.


To back this longshot bet builder, you’ll need a Paddy Power account, check out the latest Paddy Power New Customer Offer here. Our May Free Bets & Sign Up Offers article is worth a browse ahead of kick-off.

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips, with a wide variety of data-driven picks available daily to help you bet smarter. We also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research.

There's a variety of tips on the site ahead of the action this midweek, including our Europa League Final Player Shots Tips, and our Europa League Final Fouls Predictions. Free-to-play gamers can dive into our Paddy Power Beat The Drop Predictions and bet365 6 Scores Challenge Tips.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


Emoji
Written by an Andy verified content writer

18+ please gamble responsibly.