Neil Critchley has found himself under a lot of pressure only a couple of months after taking the QPR job. Rangers haven’t won a Championship game since 17th December, only one win since the World Cup break.

The pure results of these two clubs alone makes me question the prices for this match. Whilst QPR have struggled and dropped down the league table, Sunderland find themselves on the very edges of the playoff places. The Black Cats are missing any semblance of a traditional centre forward but they are trying to defeat this handicap by using a group of young, dynamic, technically gifted forwards to create chances.

Amad Diallo is growing in confidence and is leading this attack very effectively now. There is no doubt that having Ross Stewart in contention for this match would be a positive, but with the prices as they are we can play this with a degree of safety as draw no bet. The Sunderland form away from home this season has actually yielded more points than their home form, they have scored more away from home as well, 23 in 15 as opposed to 20 in 15 at the Stadium of Light.

Performance data also backs up the Sunderland angle. Since the World Cup break Sunderland’s data is far better than QPR’s, in expected points Sunderland sit in 9th (mirroring their actual Championship position) with 15xPts, whereas QPR are 16th with 7xPts. Sunderland have out-created Rs as well with 12.9xG over 8.3, and conceded fewer quality chances 7.8xGA over 11.6xGA.

Whichever angle one chooses to look at this match there are Sunderland positives and QPR negatives. Even QPR’s home form has been poor losing three of their last five at Loftus Road. To be able to get an odds against quote for Sunderland in the draw no bet market feels like a underestimation of Mowbray’s men, despite injury concerns.

Anyone who watched the Birmingham vs West Brom match that was televised this week couldn’t fail but to be impressed by Blues.

The pressing from John Eustace’s men was relentless in the first half and served to be as good a chance creator as any single player. The intelligence of the set-up and then the commitment to executing the game plan was as good as you can see and it could provide a real boost of confidence for a team that had faded quite badly until last week.

Cardiff haven’t seen an immediate boost from their change of management. Sabri Lamouchi certainly has a job on his hands and there are feelings around the game that the Frenchman is a bit disillusioned by the quality of his squad, not ideal when facing a relegation battle. The major problem that Lamouchi has, which also afflicted Steve Morison and Mark Hudson, is the lack of a consistent attacking threat. Callum Robinson remains the bright spark for the Bluebirds’ attack but he isn’t a consistent goalscorer at the moment.

Either way, Blues could attempt to throttle attacks in the build up, just as they did to West Brom. That was Birmingham’s first home win since mid-December but they had won the xG battle vs Preston the home match before West Brom, and had an away win inbetween that, so form heading into this match is a little bit more substantial than simply taking that excellent performance last time out.

Cardiff have been playing very low margin games on the road of late, but it hasn’t really done them any favours. Three consecutive 1-0 losses away and all were probably deserved as each opponent had a slightly higher xG value in those games. Keeping things tight at the back is pretty much Cardiff’s only option given their paucity of resources going forwards, but it does mean that getting enough chances to get a win is a tough ask as well. Birmingham are strong in the air, so using set pieces as a potential game-winning tactic is unlikely to be a tactic in Cardiff’s favour.

Birmingham are rightly favourites for the match, but there is enough juice in the price to make the draw no bet option available as an even safer wager.

Ten wins in a row in the Championship for Burnley was sealed on Saturday against Preston. In truth, the Clarets barely had to extend themselves in a routine 3-0 victory and Nathan Tella continued his excellent season on loan from Southampton when getting all three of the goals.

Vincent Kompany’s side are now in position to create club history against Watford with another win. The Hornets buzzed around a lot against Burnley’s rivals Blackburn on Saturday but, in truth, Rovers managed to keep them at arm’s length fairly effectively. There is a lot of talent in the Watford squad, so there is wariness in putting this selection up, but the individuals don’t appear to be gelling as a team at the moment under Slaven Bilic.

Indeed, results form is such that Watford have slipped outside of the playoff places again having forced their way back in only a matter of weeks ago. With the competitiveness of the chasing pack being as it is in the second tier, this means that Watford sit 10th, a position that they were sat in when Rob Edwards was relieved of his duties in September. This demonstrates the pressure that Slaven Bilic is now under.

In truth though, since the World Cup break, mid-table exactly describes Watford. They are 13th in the results form table over the last eight games and 11th in expected points since the World Cup break as well. There have definitely been injury problems, and many of their top players are either now back or almost back, so there may be a positive end of the season for them, but at the moment it is impossible to back them against such a slick and well-oiled machine as Burnley.

The Clarets have excellent options in attack with Lyle Foster beginning to get up-to-speed in the league but Ashley Barnes has been doing a really good job of providing a platform for the support forwards to score the goals. Tella obviously did that very well against Preston, but Zaroury, Brownhill, and Benson all have good goal figures for the season. Michael Obafemi is also dangerous from the bench of course.

However, it is the defence, or should I say, the lack of opportunities being given to opponents that has been so impressive in this campaign. I remember watching the reverse of this fixture in the early weeks of the season, one of Burnley’s very few defeats, and they didn’t deserve to lose that game either. A scrappy goal late on won that for Watford and the way that the campaigns have gone for both sides since, it is difficult to see anything over than another Burnley win here.

The January transfer window just about summed up the momentum of these two sides at the moment. Rotherham were able to use the market effectively to go out and strengthen all areas of their side with some shrewd acquisitions, whilst Reading, continuing to struggle under financial problems, could do little to improve their lot.

The Paul Ince coaching model is beginning to be put under strain as well now. In truth, most people expected Reading to struggle badly this season and if someone had said that there would be 17 Championship managerial casualties by February most people would’ve nailed Paul Ince’s name to the mast to be one of those who had lost their job. Reading’s good start has them in a mid-table position, but they are falling fairly rapidly now.

Rotherham are one of the few sides below the Royals in the overall xG/xPts table for the season. However, that doesn’t really tell the correct story heading into this encounter. Rotherham went to Watford recently and held them to a draw, as well as then holding Sheffield United at home and this new found level of confidence for the Millers is obviously built on that 4-0 thumping of Blackburn Rovers in the middle of January.

On paper, all of the above fixtures which they have gathered points from are more difficult than this test ahead of them. Reading have only managed to draw their last two home games, losing the xG battle in both. The Royals were pretty toothless at the weekend as well, losing to an admittedly tough Sunderland side but they have been much looser defensively in recent weeks than one would expect of Ince’s side. This new-look Rotherham do look to carry more threat with the likes of Tarique Fosu combining with Cheo Ogbene to provide genuine pace and width and that will trouble an experienced Reading defence.

Being able to get the draw in with a Rotherham win here makes this a bet worth taking.