Birmingham v Middlesbrough

Another midweek Championship round is upon us and we start at St Andrews where the Blues have practically done enough to be on the beach for the remainder of the season now. However, Lee Bowyer doesn’t strike me as the type of manager who will allow that to happen. Whilst the former Leeds United midfielder talks a good game about attacking football, he has rarely had the tools at his disposal this season to enact his ideal philosophy.

As a result of the myriad of injuries Blues have suffered this season Bowyer has had to be pragmatic. There is no doubt that the defence has tightened up though. The non-penalty xG against figures have reduced substantially, taking a sample size over the last 16 matches gives Blues an xGA per 90 of 1.29 in open play, whereas that drops to 0.84 when considering the last four matches.

Middlesbrough meanwhile are in a difficult spell, especially away from home. Performances and goalscoring at the Riverside have not been a problem, but on the road form is poor. In four of their last six away games they have failed to create 1xG worth of chances, and, indeed, haven’t scored in four of their last six away games either. All six of those matches have gone under 2.5 goals in the game as well.

The Birmingham attack was poor in their last two home matches, generating only 0.26 and 0.64 xG against Bournemouth and Stoke respectively.

Everything points towards a cagey, low-margin match. Middlesbrough desperately need the points but will be wary after conceding four on the road last time so siding with unders on the goals looks the right way to go.

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Blackburn v Derby County

The Blackburn Rovers woes in front of goal continued on Saturday. Tony Mowbray’s men again created enough chances to win the game against Bristol City, indeed they won a penalty, but still failed to hit the back of the net. Talisman Bradley Dack made his return and was responsible for the penalty miss and also another good chance went begging after he was introduced.

Remarkably Rovers have produced 13xG in the Championship since the turn of the year, but have scored only 3 times. To have won 13 points in this time also demonstrates how tight they have continued to be in defence. Both of those aspects of Rovers’ play are expected to continue against Derby County on Tuesday night.

Derby themselves have been relatively successful as a low margin team. They don’t score many but don’t concede many either and their risk-averse strategy has given them a chance of survival despite their points deductions. However, recent form dictates that they produce less than 1xG per 90 and concede less than 1xG per 90.

This match looks destined to be another nervous, low-scoring encounter. Ben Brereton Diaz is unlikely to be back for Blackburn and no matter who Derby seem to select, chances are difficult to come by. Backing the unders here is the strategy.

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Bournemouth v Reading

Bournemouth converted a win with late goals in each half at the weekend. Winning that match against Derby will have been a huge release valve for Scott Parker and the squad. Reverting to a more familiar front three from earlier in the season of Ryan Christie, Jaidon Anthony, and Dominic Solanke seemed to do the trick for the Cherries.

The fact that they have options to introduce such as Jamal Lowe, Siriki Dembele, and Emiliano Marcondes means that Bournemouth should be a threat throughout the match. Bournemouth’s home games have averaged 3 goals per game, 76% of the matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Their last four matches have seen them average xG of just over 2.5 per 90 as well.

Reading under Paul Ince have hit a very sticky patch, especially defensively. The Royals have now conceded 10 in 3 matches and have very little time to plan and recover for arguably an even tougher task. Under Ince’s management Reading are now conceding the 2nd highest xG against in the division.

A Bournemouth win here feels highly likely, but too short to back outright. Pairing the win with over 2.5 goals makes it a much more palatable price to follow.

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Millwall v Huddersfield

Millwall followed up their remarkable 0 shot match against Blackburn with a similarly tepid attacking display at home to Middlesbrough on Saturday. 10 attempts on this occasion, but 0 big chances created within a total of 0.42 xG.

However, even though they aren’t scoring goals, they aren’t conceding any either. Another clean sheet made it 4 in a row and 5 out of the last 6 matches for the Lions. This is the kind of organisation and resilience we have come to expect from Gary Rowett’s side and the game plan is likely to be similar when they entertain high-flying Huddersfield.

Despite the lofty nature of their existence the Terriers aren’t one of the division’s more enterprising teams. Their xG creation rates have been mid-table most of the season, they have come out ahead on a lot of fine margins, have finished their chances well and, like Millwall, have been very well organised in their structure.

Open play chances in this match will be at an absolute premium. With both sides likely to utilise a 3 at the back system there will be more defenders than attackers on the field and a limited amount of space anywhere near the penalty box for either side to use to get high quality efforts on goal. This is demonstrated by the 0.25xG against per 90 that Millwall have given up recently, 2nd in the Championship. Huddersfield have been more generous at 0.62xGA per 90 but still less than a goal per game.

Set pieces may well be the most likely way to goal and it is unlikely that there will be enough of those chances to creep over 2.5 goals in the match. Once more, we will trust to defence and back the unders goal line.

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