Lincoln City v Morecambe
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Tuesday 8th February – 7:45PM KO
Lincoln took an early lead at third placed Milton Keynes Dons at the weekend, but centre backs Harry Darling and Warren O’Hora turned it around for the hosts to see them suffer back-to-back 2-1 defeats.
Morecambe conceded a heartbreaking late Amadou Bakayoko goal against ten man Bolton Wanderers to prevent them climbing out of the relegation zone with a 1-1 draw. Possibly, a result they would have taken before the game but not in the circumstances.
The Imps have now kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 outings in all competitions and have allowed over 1.0 expected goals (xG) against in all of their last nine. The offensive contingent has come on considerably after their January business but the same cannot be said for their rearguard action.
The Shrimps created chances equating to 2.7 xGF, as per Wyscout, against the Trotters, in a match that Stephen Robinson will be desperate to put behind them, in terms of the gut-crushing late equaliser, not the performance which was a very strong and encouraging one.
Morecambe have scored in seven of their last nine, they have the joint worst defensive record in League One, but will be confident of breaching the Imps backline to propel them on to a positive result at Sincil Bank.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.85 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
AFC Wimbledon v Rotherham United
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Tuesday 8th February – 7:45PM KO
Rotherham United have the best defensive record in League One by a seven goal margin and will be confident of taking maximum points from their trip to Plough Lane on Tuesday evening. Mark Robinson’s men have been struggling considerably of late without a win in 11 and they did not score from open play in their 3-2 defeat at Charlton Athletic on Saturday.
The Addicks scored from two corners and exposed some of the frailties Wimbledon are experiencing. The Millers have scored the most set piece goals of any third tier team, as per Opta’s The Analyst, and therefore they are in a great position to expose the Dons’ deficiencies.
Given how comfortably the Millers are the strongest side in League One according to expected goals, to see the market have them at a backable price against relegation battling opposition is quite a rare opportunity.
It is always enjoyable getting a quality team onside and in League One the Millers are as good as it gets. Paul Warne’s men were minutes away from survival in the Championship on the final day of last term, and given their performances this campaign, they would have been fine in this year’s edition of the Championship.
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Prediction: Rotherham to Win, 1.6 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Gillingham v Cambridge United
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Tuesday 8th February – 7:45PM KO
Neil Harris certainly appears to have shored up Gillingham defensively since arriving at Priestfield Stadium. The Gills have conceded just once in two outings since his appointment and will fancy their chances in preparing to host newly promoted Cambridge United in midweek.
Mark Bonner’s men have been one of the stories of this League One season so far but with a mid table position secured and any external competition ending at the weekend, there is a chance the campaign could fizzle out a touch.
Gills have seen under 2.5 goals in three of four, and Cambridge have in seven of eight with the visitors also significantly overperforming their expected goals (xG) this season. A likely regression in their finishing, combined with the Gills’ new found solidity points towards a low scoring game.
Both sides rank in the bottom five teams in the division for season-long xG generated, and though their backlines are nothing to rave about either, Gillingham’s improvement in that area could see this one play out as a low scoring evenly matched affair.
Gills have scored more than once in just two of their last 15 League One outings.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.73 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Accrington Stanley v Oxford United
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Tuesday 8th February – 7:45PM KO
Accrington Stanley are winless in their last six but curiously have generated over 3 xG in their last two games. Most recently against Rotherham United who boast by far the best defensive record in the division, in a 1-0 defeat, therefore Stanley could be due a goal or two at the Crown Ground on Tuesday evening.
Oxford United will arrive in fine goalscoring form having notched three or more goals in three of their last four games. The reverse fixture saw a resounding 5-1 win for Yellows and they have the second best attacking contingent in the third tier according to season-long xG generated.
Stanley have underperformed in attack by over 7 xG and therefore we could see that metric regress to the mean in the coming weeks. John Coleman’s men will be desperate to make amends for the chances they passed up against the Millers by putting in a strong display, on home soil, against the promotion pushing visitors.
Karl Robinson’s men have also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last seven games. Allowing over 1 xGA on all of those occasions, as per Wyscout.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.73 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Fleetwood Town v Milton Keynes Dons
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Tuesday 8th February – 7:45PM KO
Milton Keynes Dons are shaping up as one of the stronger teams in League One as we approach the business end of the season. Liam Manning’s men have a clear identity and a way of playing that they will stick to no matter who the opposition are, making their exciting underlying process arguably more repeatable than some of the other sides around them.
Victory over Lincoln City at the weekend saw them climb above Sunderland into third place and they will be hoping to build on that at Highbury Stadium in midweek.
Fleetwood Town are winless in four with Stephen Crainey’s ‘new manager bounce’ slowing down somewhat. The Dons have the third best defence in League One according to season-long xGA, with the Cod Army currently regressing to the mean having overperformed their xG by over 12 goals so far this season.
The Dons have also lost just one of nine and with Theo Corbeanu arriving on loan from Wolverhampton Wanderers in January, they have been able to avoid a dip in performance levels, despite the high profile departure of Matt O’Riley to Celtic.
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Prediction: MK Dons Draw No Bet, 1.57 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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