This is an incredibly chaotic fight between two hard hitting Light Heavyweight contenders. Hill has natural knockout power in his hands and I believe that there will be moments in which due to Rountree Jr’s explosive linear attacks and blitzes that we will likely see a few counter or check right hooks coming from the ex-champion. Hill doesn’t really require a huge load up or a massive motion to generate power, he is the taller and longer fighter so he can just let his hands go and let his power do all the talking during this incredible fight. Now, the somewhat iffy thing about Hill is that he is coming off a leg injury that has originally led to a cancellation of this fight back in April, so there are some concerns about just how ready he is coming into a 5 round bout against a talented striker like Rountree Jr, and I suppose we won’t really know how he looks until after the weight cut and until he enters the cage. 

Now, Rountree Jr is coming off one of the most competitive fights in his career that had all of us at the edge of our seat, and that fight is of course against Alex “Poatan” Pereira, the boogeyman of that division (or, ex boogeyman as he did lose his belt!). During that fight, we saw a measured yet explosive approach from Rountree Jr in which he looked fast with his bursts and his hands looked really sharp, often being able to sneak through the high shell of Pereira and land cleanly. I expect a similar showcase this weekend by Rountree Jr as Hill isn’t exactly someone who utilises a lot of head movement or footwork, he kind of just stands there waiting for a strike to come so he can counter it. 

Now, I had trouble deciding between the fight ending between rounds 1-3 or Rountree Moneyline (as I do think Rountree wins). I ultimately landed on rounds 1-3 due to the absolute chaos these two heavy hitters may create in just three rounds of high octave action. I would be surprised if this fight hit the fourth round.

Fiziev versus Bahamondes is perhaps one of the biggest highlights on this card, and I think rightfully we all believe we are in for a classic barnburner. However, despite the fact that both fighters have a high finish rate and an extensive kickboxing background, I do not believe there will be a finish, and I’ll tell you why.

Fiziev is a fantastic fighter who has fought through fire and fury during his two bouts against Justin Gaethje, a car crash of a fighter. Defensively, Fiziev is educated with his guard and distance management, although I would assume that due to the severe reach difference that Fiziev will spend quite a lot of time at distance, trying to figure out a proper entry to the pocket in which he can then effectively land his strikes. If Fiziev does get caught by a strike, I only expect him to look a little stunned but otherwise fully within himself to defend or retaliate accordingly. The only danger to this bet is a submission by Bahamondes which may stem from a standing clinch position, and typically choke submissions happen early on within the first two rounds, hence that being the only primary danger to this leg. 

Bahamondes on the other hand is highly dynamic with his strikes and whilst he is coming off numerous first round finishes, I am a firm believer in that both fighters will give each other enough respect not to engage recklessly. If Bahamondes does turn up the aggression there is a slight chance of a few jumping knees landing cleanly, but I think Fiziev, who is also a coach and trainer at Tiger Muay Thai, is knowledgeable enough to expect that and knows how to react to that kind of attack. Either way, I do expect a high pace fight but safe enough from both fighters in that it’ll end up going to the judges scorecards.

There are very few Heavyweight fighters on the UFC Roster that have made enough of a mark in the division to stand out, and Curtis “Razor” Blaydes is certainly one of them. Typically when it comes to Heavyweight fights, you want to see two big boys swing it out, right? You want to see violence within 5 minutes leading to a finish, and whilst you are certainly not going to get that from Blaydes, you’ll get something fairly special and that’s his high wrestling output and masterful control and ground and pound that follows suit. See, Kuniev looked a tiny bit sloppy and slow when he fought on Dana Whites’ Contender Series, he looked like a typical Heavyweight debutant, only in the weight class because he is quite rotund in shape, and whilst he did knockout his opponent, I did not at all like how quickly he fatigued and I expect that fatigue to quickly show if Blaydes shows off his wrestling skillset early and perhaps often as Blaydes is notorious for his high takedown attempt statistic.

I just am a firm believer that Curtis Blaydes is a contender level fighter, he has consistently been in the top 10 of this division and he has always executed his gameplan to relative ease, he has gained some confidence on the feet with his boxing but ultimately it’s his wrestling and ground and pound that will remain a certainty when he fights. Also, this fight feels weird because Kuniev is making his debut but against Blaydes? It really feels like the UFC is setting Blaydes up for success here, and the odds somewhat reflect that.

Naimov is such a clean fighter when it comes to technique and style, and whilst he doesn’t throw a whole lot of volume, I do think that accuracy matters most, especially when dealing with someone like Grad who is going to have to risk some aggression to achieve a modicum amount of success, but in order for him to even do that it would require him to enter the countering range of Naimov, and if you’ve seen Naimov’s striking, you know as much as I do that that’s a dangerous place to be! 

Outside of the countering range, Naimov is a savant at switching his stance at the right time to confuse his opponent only for him to blast a head or a body kick from both stances and from both the lead and rear leg, he is highly dynamic at range and he is likely to use his kicks early as both range finders for his boxing attacks, or just to soften up the target and make the following rounds a nightmare for his opponent as he is so quick to target the body and head, and targeting the body early is often key for a kicker to achieve success in the later rounds. 

Now, I am aware that Naimov has shown the ability to take a fight to the ground and hunt for submissions, but I think that he is more likely to find a TKO via ground and pound rather than a submission as Bogdan Grad can be tough to scramble with on the ground, so I do think that if any wrestling happens from Naimov it would be primarily a position over submission situation. To conclude, I do believe a Double Chance bet here makes a whole lot of sense to me, and the odds aren’t too ugly either!