Valencia v Real Madrid

La Liga’s New Year opener features a battle of opposites: second-from-bottom Valencia host second-placed Real Madrid. Both teams are desperate for points, albeit for starkly different reasons. Dive into our comprehensive preview as we set the stage for what promises to be an electrifying start to the calendar year.

⭐ Valencia v Real Madrid Madrid Best Bets

Both teams scoring seems highly probable given recent trends and defensive vulnerabilities. Valencia have failed to score in just two home games this season, while keeping clean sheets only against Girona and Osasuna—teams with some of the weakest away attacks in La Liga (averaging 0.89 and 0.63 goals per away game, respectively). Against stronger attacks, they’ve consistently struggled to hold firm.  

Real Madrid, boasting the league’s second-best away attack (1.89 goals per game), are expected to find the net, but their defence has been far from impenetrable. They’ve conceded in 6 of their 9 La Liga away games and in all their European fixtures, with key injuries to Eder Militão and Dani Carvajal exacerbating their vulnerabilities.  

The fixture’s history also supports this—10 of the last 11 La Liga meetings at Mestalla have seen both teams score. With both sides chasing vital points for contrasting reasons, goals at both ends feel inevitable.

👕 Valencia v Real Madrid Predicted XI

🔍 Valencia v Real Madrid Players to Watch

⚪ Hugo Duro

Despite Valencia’s struggles in attack—they rank among the league’s worst with an average of 0.94 goals per game—Hugo Duro offers a glimmer of hope. The team’s top scorer this season, Duro has netted 4 goals and provided 1 assist, cementing his role as Valencia’s primary offensive threat. Notably, he has scored 2 of their last 3 goals in head-to-head meetings with Real Madrid, including a 27th-minute opener in last season’s fixture.

🟠 Vinícius Júnior

Real Madrid will lean on Vinícius Júnior, whose ability to deliver in decisive moments has been crucial. The Brazilian salvaged a draw for Madrid in this fixture last season with a brace and continues to lead the team with 13 goal involvements (8 goals, 5 assists) this campaign. He has found the net in his last 2 starts and boasts 6 goals and 3 assists in his previous 5 matches. Vinícius also has a remarkable record against Valencia too, scoring 8 times in their last 6 league encounters.

📂 Valencia v Real Madrid Cheat Sheet

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💻 Valencia v Real Madrid Form and Tactics

Valencia’s 2-2 comeback against Alavés before the winter break wasn’t enough to save Rubén Baraja’s job. New head coach, Carlos Corberán, steps in with the daunting task of avoiding relegation—a prospect that hasn’t threatened the club since the mid-1980s. Corberán’s commitment to the cause was clear in his vow to approach the role “with great responsibility.”

His tenure begins with a baptism of fire against Real Madrid, a side that has defeated Valencia more than any other La Liga opponent (93 times). However, the Mestalla could serve as a fortress, with Valencia earning points in 8 of their last 10 home matches against Los Blancos (W5, D3). To compete, they’ll need to capitalise on their strength in set pieces, averaging 5.88 corners per game, as their limited possession (49%) and low opposition-box entries (ranking 17th) may curtail open-play opportunities.

Real Madrid enters 2025 riding high after a 4-2 victory over Sevilla, part of an unbeaten five-game run across all competitions (W4, D1). That streak also included a FIFA Intercontinental Cup triumph, which solidified Carlo Ancelotti’s status as the club’s most decorated manager with 15 trophies. Victory at the Mestalla would propel Madrid, temporarily at least, to the top of the La Liga standings.

However, their away form leaves room for improvement, with just 1 win from their last 3 league road games (W1, D1, L1) and 5 goals conceded in that span. Real has struggled to keep a clean sheet at the Mestalla, last achieving that feat in January 2013. 

Nonetheless, their attacking firepower, complemented by dominant possession (60.6%) and the league’s second-highest shots on target per game (6.3), makes them formidable contenders to dictate play and break down Valencia’s defence as they intensify their title pursuit.

🏁 Valencia v Real Madrid Ref Watch

• Referee: César Soto Grado
• Dishes out 4.44 Yellow Cards Per Game and 0.33 Red Cards
• Awards an average of 22.22 Fouls Per Game
• He has not awarded a penalty this season. 

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.