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Wales v Kazakhstan
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Kick Off: Saturday 22nd March at 19:45
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Competition: World Cup 2026 Qualifiers
Craig Bellamy has made an instant impact as Wales manager, guiding his side to promotion in the UEFA Nations League within his first six games in charge. With that milestone achieved, his focus now shifts to securing a spot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, following in the footsteps of his predecessor, Rob Page. Belgium is expected to be Wales’ toughest competition for the automatic qualification spot, making victories against lower-ranked opposition imperative. Their next fixture against Kazakhstan – 81 places below them in the FIFA rankings – presents an opportunity for a statement win.
⭐ Wales v Kazakhstan Best Bet
Wales enter this encounter in formidable form under Bellamy’s leadership, going unbeaten in their UEFA Nations League campaign (W3, D3). A broader look at their recent performances highlights remarkable consistency, with just one defeat in their last 16 internationals (W7, D8).
In stark contrast, Kazakhstan have endured a torrid run, winning just one of their last 11 matches — a 2-0 victory over Curaçao. Their UEFA Nations League campaign was dismal, suffering relegation to League C after losing five of their six matches and failing to score a single goal. Their World Cup qualification record is even more damning, with their last victory in this competition dating back to 2013 (D7, L14).
The bookmakers reflect this disparity, giving Kazakhstan a mere 5.6% chance of victory, at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Wales have shown their ability to dispatch weaker opposition convincingly, including a dominant 4-1 win over Iceland, a team ranked 40 places above Kazakhstan.
With two of their last four home fixtures ending in victories by at least a two-goal margin, a comfortable Welsh win looks the most probable outcome. Kazakhstan’s defensive frailties further reinforce this pick. They conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game in their recent Nations League campaign while failing to score themselves. Their away record is even more concerning, suffering heavy defeats of 5-0, 4-0, and 3-0.
🟢 Wales v Kazakhstan #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Wales to Score in Each Half:
With Wales expected to dominate this fixture, backing them to score in both halves is a logical pick. While their scoring trends don’t necessarily align—having only achieved this once in their recent fixtures—the gulf in quality between the sides makes it highly likely.
Kazakhstan endured a dismal UEFA Nations League (UNL) campaign, failing to score while conceding 15 goals. Their defensive frailties are particularly evident on the road, where they conceded in both halves in all three away group-stage matches, as well as in their last five away fixtures overall.
Wales to Have Most Corners in Each Half:
Wales’ attacking intent, especially at home, makes this selection a natural follow-up. They have dominated the corner count in five of the six halves played on home soil during their recent UNL campaign.
On the other hand, Kazakhstan struggled massively in this area, losing the corner count in 10 of the 12 halves they played in the group stage—winning just one and drawing the other. Given the expected pattern of play, Wales should comfortably control the corner count in both halves.
Kazakhstan to Have Most Cards:
With Wales likely dictating play, Kazakhstan’s defensive struggles should see them resort to cynical fouls, making this selection another strong pick.
All three of Wales’ home UNL matches saw their opponents pick up more bookings, highlighting a consistent trend. Additionally, Kazakhstan’s lack of discipline is well-documented—they received more cards than their opponents in five of their six group-stage matches. Given the difference in quality, another card-heavy performance from Kazakhstan seems inevitable.
👕 Wales v Kazakhstan Predicted XI
🔍 Wales v Kazakhstan Players to Watch
🔴 Neco Williams
A key figure for Nottingham Forest, Neco Williams has emerged as a vital cog in Bellamy’s high-intensity system. While his defensive contributions are reliable, it is his attacking threat that stands out in this contest. Williams averages 1.32 shots per 90 across his last 26 international appearances, maintaining a steady rate of one per game during the Nations League campaign. His club form further strengthens this selection, with Williams averaging 1.38 shots per 90 minutes for Forest this season. He has attempted at least one shot in seven of his last nine starts, hitting two or more in four of them. Given Wales’ anticipated dominance and their high-possession approach, Williams should find himself in advanced positions frequently, increasing his chances of registering multiple attempts.
📂 Wales v Kazakhstan Cheat Sheet
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💻 Wales v Kazakhstan Form and Tactics
Despite the absence of key players such as Ethan Ampadu, Harry Wilson, and captain Aaron Ramsey due to injury, Wales remain a formidable force under Bellamy’s leadership. His tactical approach has transformed the side, shifting from a more reactive style under Page to a pro-active, possession-heavy system. Wales now conduct some high pressing, which is a key visible difference from the Page era.
Since Bellamy’s appointment, Wales have averaged 56% possession, with their home games exceeding 60%. This marks a significant departure from the Page era, where Wales averaged just 43% possession in his final six competitive fixtures.
The emphasis on ball control has translated into improved passing metrics. Wales completed 2,410 successful passes during their Nations League campaign with an 85% accuracy rate – 556 more than in their previous six competitive games, where pass completion dipped below 80%. Crucially, this possession is purposeful. Wales now make significantly more passes in advanced areas and rely less on long balls, increasing their expected goals per 90 minutes.
Kazakhstan arrive in Cardiff off the back of a wretched Nations League campaign (D1, L5), failing to score a single goal while conceding 15. Their form in World Cup qualification is equally grim, with their last victory dating back to September 2013 (D7, L14) — a 2-1 win over the Faroe Islands.
Their record on the road is even more concerning, with Andorra being the only team they have beaten away from home in World Cup qualifiers (D4, L20). Their most recent victory as an away side came in October 2023, but since then, they have suffered eight consecutive defeats. They are now winless in 11 matches at any venue since beating Turkmenistan in March 2024 (D1, L10). Kazakhstan’s defensive shortcomings make them particularly vulnerable against a Wales side that thrives on sustained attacking play. Having suffered heavy away defeats of 5-0, 4-0, and 3-0 during the group stage, another heavy defeat appears likely, with Kazakhstan’s primary objective likely to be damage limitation rather than any realistic hope of securing a result.
🏁 Wales v Kazakhstan Ref Watch
- Referee: Donatas Rumšas
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 3.29 / 0.57 |
| Fouls Given | 27.00 |
| Penalties | 0.29 |
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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