Mainz v Borussia Dortmund
Although languishing in 12th, Mainz are somewhat of a surprise package and are just eight points behind Wednesday’s opponents, Borussia Dortmund. Edin Terzic’s side conceding three against Augsburg on Sunday will also give Bo Svensson and his Mainz side confidence they can get a result.
With a front three of Aymen Barkok, Marcus Ingvartsen and Karim Onisiwo, this has the potential to cause Mats Hummels and Nico Schlotterbeck problems. Dortmund’s defence conceded 6 chances against Augsburg, three of which found the back of Gregor Kobel’s net. Salih Ozcan was poor in defensive-midfield and they don’t have that protection that they need. Great going forward, BVB’s defensive incapabilities, which has seen them concede 24 goals in 16 games, will see them struggle.
Borussia Dortmund’s attack however, is a different story. Even without Marco Reus, who missed training on Monday and is expected to miss Wednesday’s game, BVB are one of the most fun teams to watch in the Bundesliga. The return of Sebastien Haller at the weekend was also met with a standing ovation given his recent battle against testicular cancer, and the addition of the French-Ivorian to this BVB squad provides their attack with a new outlook.
Borussia Dortmund have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 9 Bundesliga games, the same number that Mainz have. Both teams like to attack and so expect to see chances at both ends. Both are rather wasteful in front of goal with BVB and Mainz under-performing in their xG metric but with the high percentage of chances created, I fancy both teams to score.
Leverkusen v Bochum
Bayer Leverkusen welcome Bochum to the BayArena on Wednesday night as they look to build on their impressive Rhine derby win against Borussia Mönchengladbach. 2023 promises to be an exciting year for B04 with the appointment of Xabi Alonso, free-flowing attacking football with Moussa Diaby and Jeremie Frimpong, and the return of Florian Wirtz after almost a year out.
The impact Alonso has had on this Bayer Leverkusen squad in a short time is evident. The Spaniard has won 5 out of his 6 Bundesliga games, after switching from a 4-2-3-1 under Gerardo Seoane, to a much more fluid 3-4-3. Against Borussia Mönchengladbach, Bayer created just 5 chances, and converted 3 but were also effective in creating chances – Moussa Diaby, Amine Adli, Robert Andrich and Exequiel Palacios created 7 key passes between themselves.
With Piero Hincapie, Odlion Kossounou and Edmond Tapsoba operating as the defensive block, the trio is the epitome of what a modern-day defender is: athletic, confident in possession and an ability to read the game. Against the likes of Philipp Hofmann, they shouldn’t have too much of a problem.
But credit where it’s due, Bochum have themselves done rather well following the appointment of a new head coach, Thomas Letsch. On a shoestring budget in comparison to that of Bayer Leverkusen, Bochum responded well after Hertha Berlin took the lead on Saturday – which was ruled out – to go into a 3-0 lead against the capital club. With that, they moved out of the relegation zone.
Just one game into 2023, and Bayer Leverkusen already look impressive. We can expect a similar XI on Wednesday with Adli and Diaby operating behind Adam Hlozek, with Frimpong and Mitchel Bakker providing width on the end. This should cause an overload against Bochum’s preferred 4-2-3-1 and expect Bayer to capitalise and pick up the win at home.
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