💎 Gem Bet: Nathaniel Phillips - Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.44 (bet365)

✅ bet365 - 1.44
Paddy Power - 1.05
SkyBet - 1.07

An easy first-half winner from Bernardeschi on Thursday night made it 5 Gems from 5, and the next pick looks perfectly placed to extend the streak to 6.

Nathaniel Phillips to have 1 shot on Friday night against Leicester is priced at 1.6 with bet365. For a centre-back, this may not seem outrageous, but when you consider the data behind his output, and the fact that other bookies have this same line as short as 1.05 (a 95% implied likelihood), the value becomes glaring.

According to FotMob, Phillips ranks in the top 3% of centre-backs for shot output. He has taken a shot in all six games this season, averaging 1.83 per 90, with match returns of 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, and 1. That consistency alone should already put this line shorter.

But it’s the scenarios in which he generates those shots that make this bet so appealing:

Inside the box threat: 10 of his 11 attempts this season have come inside the area. Leicester concedes 9.5 shots per game inside the box in the Championship, rising to 11 away from home.

Aerial presence on corners: 6 of those 11 efforts have been headers from corners. Leicester is conceding 7.67 corners on the road this season, a number that plays directly into Phillips’ aerial strengths and physical presence.

Set-piece danger: 3 further attempts have come from free-kick situations. Leicester concedes 10.33 free kicks per game away from home, while West Brom draw 13.67 at The Hawthorns, providing plenty of further opportunities for deliveries into the box.

There are multiple routes for this to land, with numerous scenarios stacking heavily in our favour. To emphasise just how mispriced this is, Phillips is priced at 3.5 for 2+ shots, a line that those same bookies price as low as 1.44. That sharp drop alone signals how generous Bet365’s 1.6 really is for just a single effort.

Simply put, for a player this consistent, in a game state that promises set-piece opportunities, this is an outstanding Gem and a strong candidate to keep the streak alive at 6 from 6.