Burnley have conceded more shots, more shots on target, and a higher expected goals total than any side in the Premier League this season, which shows how frequently opponents carve out chances against them. That vulnerability at the back has been especially clear at home, where five of Burnley’s last six league games have seen both teams score and over 3.5 goals.

Early fragility is also an issue, with Burnley conceding a joint-league high five home goals inside the opening 15 minutes. However, Burnley are rarely shut out. Despite their 15-game winless run, they have managed to score in the majority of recent home fixtures, often capitalising on moments rather than sustained pressure.

The return of Zian Flemming adds another attacking outlet, even if his goals have not always translated into results.

West Ham’s recent games also strongly support BTTS. Five of their last six Premier League matches have seen both teams score, and the Hammers have struggled to manage leads, dropping more points from winning positions than any other side this season. That tendency to leave space late on could give Burnley a route back into games, even if they fall behind.

Burnley’s situation remains dire. The Clarets are winless in 15 Premier League matches (D5 L10) and are edging closer to a club-record winless run in a single top-flight campaign. While they’ve managed to grind out a few draws at Turf Moor recently, victories have been extremely hard to come by, especially against teams from the capital. Burnley have also won just one home Premier League game against London opposition since February 2022.

West Ham, despite their own struggles, have shown enough to trust them not to lose here. They have lost just two of their last 19 Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone (W13 D4), a clear indication that they generally matches against struggling opponents well.

Even away from home, the Hammers have picked up the majority of their points against teams outside the league’s top nine.

Head-to-head history further supports the bet as Burnley are winless in their last seven Premier League meetings with West Ham, while the Hammers have won more than half of their league games against the Clarets in the competition overall.

Even with West Ham’s tendency to drop points from winning positions, their ability to score early and control spells should be enough to avoid defeat.

Valentín Taty Castellanos has settled quickly into life at West Ham and is already showing the confidence and sharpness expected from a central striker.

He has registered at least two shots on target in each of his last two Premier League appearances, including an eye-catching display against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Producing that level of accuracy away from home against elite opposition suggests he is getting into the right areas consistently, rather than relying on speculative efforts. For this market, that reliability in hitting the target is key.

The matchup itself strongly favours the Argentine forward with Burnley’s woeful defence. Opponents regularly find space in and around the penalty area, forcing goalkeeper Dubravka into constant action.

Even teams struggling for form have managed to test Burnley’s goal with ease, making it an inviting fixture for an in-form striker.

Game state also plays into Castellanos’ hands. With West Ham usually starting games early, that pressure should help the Argentine generate chances quickly, increasing the likelihood of him testing the keeper.

Even if West Ham lose control later, their tendency to continue shooting means opportunities should persist making 1+ shot on target for Castellanos a well-backed selection.

Martin Dubravka has been one of the busiest goalkeepers in the Premier League, a by-product of Burnley allowing an extraordinary number of chances.

The Clarets have faced more shots (407), more shots on target (145) and a higher expected goals against (48.4) than any other side this campaign, an environment that consistently forces their goalkeeper into action.

Unsurprisingly, Dubravka leads the league for saves made (97), even while conceding heavily just due to how frequently he is tested.

Recent form strengthens the case further as Dubravka has recorded at least two saves in each of his last four league matches.

These games include standout performances where he made nine saves against Tottenham and eight in another high-pressure fixture against Liverpool. Even in games Burnley lose comfortably, he is rarely left with nothing to do.

West Ham’s attacking tendencies also suit this market. The Hammers have scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes than any other side this season and generate a high volume of early attempts, particularly through direct play and runners from midfield.

With players like Crysencio Summerville in form and Callum Wilson historically prolific against Burnley scoring his last four against the Clarets, shots on target are likely to follow.

Even if Burnley keep the scoreline tight, West Ham’s willingness to shoot combined with Burnley’s inability to limit shots makes 2+ saves a conservative and realistic target for Dubravka.