Wimbledon 2022 Men’s Final
Novak Djokovic v Nick Kyrgios
Over 38.5 Games
Make no mistake, Kyrgios has a chance in this match but it’s hard to go against a proven champion like Djokovic.
He’s not lost a completed match at Wimbledon since his 2016 defeat to Sam Querrey and he goes into Sunday’s 2022 final having won his last 27 matches at the All England Club. It’s fair to say he’s not been at his very best over the past two weeks. Five sets have been dropped and he was very sloppy against Cameron Norrie in the early stages of Friday’s semi-final, a match which followed his five-set quarter-final battle with Jannik Sinner.
Yet he’s also produced some excellent tennis, notably in the latter stages of those contests, and crucially he’s been here and done it all before – this will be the Serb’s 32nd Grand Slam final, a new record.
Kyrgios, on the other hand, will be playing his first such final and who knows how a player renowned for his erratic behaviour will cope with the occasion? His huge serve will be key – more on that below – but his all-round game has looked pretty good so far and he brings a 2-0 winning record against Djokovic into this battle.
The Australian looks capable of claiming at least a set but ultimately you have to fancy Djokovic to get the job done. An alternative to this which brings in the possibility – and it should not be ruled out – of a Kyrgios victory is to head to the total games markets.
Both previous matches have featured a tie-break and another seems likely here so over 38.5 is at 5/6 should land if this goes four sets or longer.
Novak Djokovic to Win & Both Players to Win a Set
There is serious potential for Djokovic to struggle on return, although the more he sees of the Kyrgios serve, the better he should get in terms of getting it back in play.
That was certainly the case in last year’s final against another big server, Matteo Berrettini, when Djokovic came from a set down to win. Kyrgios will likely need a fast start if he’s to triumph here and he’ll know it – Djokovic has lost just five Grand Slam matches in his career from a set down.
Djokovic hasn’t started well in the last two rounds – and has subsequently landed this bet. A repeat here looks worth a try.
Kyrgios 25+ Aces, Djokovic 10+ Aces and Over 1.5 Tie-Breaks
That head-to-head record in Kyrgios’ favour is definitely worth paying attention to.
His wins came within weeks of each other in 2017, the Aussie winning on the hardcourts of first Acapulco and then Indian Wells. Each was a straight-sets victory. But dig deeper into the data and you see that Kyrgios held serve throughout both matches, slamming down 39 aces in the process – 25 in Acapulco and 14 in Indian Wells.
In Acapulco, he won 81% of points behind his first serve and in Indian Wells, 86%. The equivalent second-serve figures were an excellent 75% and a still-good 52%. It would be wrong not to point out the date again – 2017 was Djokovic’s weakest year of the past decade, the only one in which he failed to win a Grand Slam title.
Yet those figures clearly suggest he has a problem returning the Australian’s serve and, having not had another shot at it since those matches, I’d expect it to be an issue again here, particularly in the early stages.
There should be plenty of aces so we’ve had a special bet priced up via Paddy Power’s #WhatOddsPaddy feature. Kyrgios 25+ aces, Djokovic 10+ aces and over 1.5 tie-breaks in the match pays out at 5/1.
Kyrgios managed 25 aces in two sets in the duo’s first meeting and has sent down a tournament-leading 120 in his five matches so far – an average fractionally under what’s required.
Djokovic has produced 50 in six matches thus far but looks capable of hitting 10 if this does indeed go four sets.
Finally, two or more tie-breaks looks more than possible with both men looking likely to hold serve regularly – there have been just two breaks in the four sets they’ve previously played.
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How to watch the Wimbledon Men’s Final?
📅 When is the Wimbledon Men’s Final? / Sunday, 10th July 2022 from 11:00am
🏟 Where is the Wimbledon Men’s Final? / All England Tennis Club (London)
📺 What TV channel is the Wimbledon Men’s Final on? / BBC One