Heading into the final Group E game, there’s plenty of permutations. Germany need a win against Costa Rica to have any chance of advancing to the knockout stages. In the event of a draw between Spain and Japan, Die Mannschaft would need to beat Costa Rica by at least two goals. If Japan beat Spain, it would be the nation with the better goal difference. Hansi Flick’s side must beat Costa Rica and hope that Luis Enrique’s Spain can do them a favour.

Costa Rica’s win was something of a fluke, the Central Americans snatching three points with their only shot on target of the tournament so far. They had the defensive quality to keep Japan at bay and are clearly much better than the 7-0 defeat at the hands of Spain showed, but this should still be a comfortable win for the Germans.

So far in the tournament, Germany have looked average. Despite 25 shots against Japan, they scored just one and that was from the spot. Flick chose Kai Havertz as Germany No. 9 but he was poor and hasn’t registered a shot on target. Defensively, Nico Schlotterbeck, the only left-footed central-defender in the squad, lacked confidence and physicality against Japan, losing his duel which resulted in Takuma Asano’s winner.

Against Spain, Flick dropped Schlotterbeck and opted for a defensive partnership of Niklas Süle and Antonio Ruediger, which appeared a significant upgrade. Thilo Kehrer came in at right-back but struggled against Dani Olmo and was substituted after 72 minutes, replaced by Lukas Klostermann who could be an option for Flick against Costa Rica. Havertz dropped to the bench, Thomas Müller played as the No. 9 and Flick opted for a midfield three, which remains an option going forward.

Flick will favour his 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 and won’t deviate at this stage in the competition. An improved defensive display with the central duo offering more stability, Flick and Manuel Neuer commended the defensive effort against Spain, allowing just three chances despite Enrique’s side, as expected, dominating the possession.

It’s in attack where Germany have problems. Havertz dropped to the bench and Müller played as the No. 9 against Spain. But as someone who plays his best football off a striker, he was isolated against Spain and didn’t have a single chance. He doesn’t have the pace to run in behind or physicality to hold the ball up and bring others into play.

An option for Germany is Niclas Füllkrug. He scored the equaliser against Spain that secured a vital point. As the highest-scoring German in Europe this season, Füllkrug has provided more of a threat in the 46 minutes he’s played at the World Cup than Havertz or Müller has. Füllkrug (3) has had more shots than Müller and Havertz (0) combined. Upon Leroy Sané’s introduction against Spain after missing the opening game, Germany have looked far more direct which also puts Müller’s place under threat.

Thursday’s game will certainly be a feisty one. Costa Rica go into the game knowing that a win would put them into the knockout stages. As shown against Japan, they won’t make it easy for Flick’s side, who will have their work cut out. Expect Germany to control the possession but they must improve in the final third. Germany were much improved against Spain but that will be for nothing if they don’t manage to beat Costa Rica.