If one factor can explain Argentina’s improvement in the 2022 World Cup over recent editions, it is the emergence of Manchester City star Julian Alvarez.

In his first tournament (and with barely 10 caps to his name prior to November) the 22-year-old has raced to four goals, putting him just behind Messi and Mbappe as the top scorers in Qatar. Perhaps most interesting, though, has been the timing of his strikes.

Three of those four have come as Argentina’s last goal of the game, extending the lead and putting them in an even stronger position. That is no coincidence: the rapid 22-year-old loves taking advantage of tired legs and powering past his marker in the final minutes, and a similar strike to finish off France would place his name in Albiceleste World Cup folklore.

Kylian Mbappe is in the midst of a very unusual run. In neither of his last two matches against Morocco or England has he mustered a single shot on target. Underlining how unusual this is for him, prior to these games, he had registered at least one in every game he had played this season, even if it was as a brief replacement.

In 10 of his 12 outings before the England match, he had managed multiple shots on target, including three against Maccabi Haifa for PSG, plus four and three against Denmark and Poland respectively for France in Qatar. It seems inconceivable that he will be caged up successfully once more, particularly with his track record of coming to the fore in big matches. He is 4.0 to have at least one shot on target in each half.

Argentina will not have things all their own way of course. Mbappe caused uproar in the nation’s backline four years ago and, while they have improved since then, so has the young striker, making the job of stopping him one of the utmost importance.

That is where Molina comes in. He has been primarily noted for his attacking ability at this World Cup, but also shined against both Netherlands and Croatia, while boasting the cleanest disciplinary record of any of Argentina’s starting defenders.

Mbappe, however, will be a different prospect, and lining up against him the Atletico right-back may well be forced to employ some of the dark arts more than once to stop PSG’s ace from getting the upper hand.

The full-back areas are positions that Argentina could look to target. France are not the most robust down either flank, with Theo Hernandez better going forward than defending on the left and Jules Kounde more comfortable playing in a central role. Indeed, it has been notable across Argentina’s games in this competition that the opposing left-back area is the one where they have consistently won a high number of free kicks.

This is likely to see Theo put under pressure. He showed against England, when he gave away two fouls, that when he is tested defensively, he can be vulnerable to giving free kicks away. Indeed, he has committed at least one foul in four of his last six matches in all competitions. With his fiery personality and high field positioning, which can leave him exposed to being the target of breaks, this game is set up for him to make a couple of misjudgements in tackles.