Croatia and Japan meet for the third time in World Cups but for the first time beyond the group stage as Japan look to break new ground and Croatia look to meet expectations by reaching the last sixteen.

After defying all the odds to beat Spain and top the group Japan have shown their best and their worst in this tournament already. When little is expected from them and the pressure is off, they tend to relax and do better than expected – hence wins against the 2010 and 2014 World Cup winners already in Qatar 2022.

But, as we also saw, when expectations are high, and an opponent is perhaps under-estimated, Japan fail to impress. A 1-0 loss to Costa Rica, all be it when going for a 0-0 draw and losing to the only goal attempt of the game after a defensive error showed us that Japan are fallible, especially when they sit back and are unadventurous.

Japan’s strength is in their quality of passing and movement going forward, and this is what they should concentrate on against Croatia. Surely, they now have nothing to lose, nothing to prove against a team that will be expected by most World Cup watchers to be able to get a result against them. Or is Japan now expected to be able to kill off a team way above them in the FIFA rankings? They’ve beaten 7th and 11th, so the squad must now be thinking they have a great chance against 12th-ranking Croatia.

While Croatia’s progress in their final game against Belgium might have stressful, due to the chances Belgium created, it also felt in little doubt as Croatia move from facing the Red Devils to the Samurai Blue.

Japan represents an opponent who, while they have taken some huge scalps in the group, Croatia will expect to defeat and feel that they have the inside track on with the numerous members of the coaching staff and contacts who have worked in Asian football and in Japan itself.

Zlatko Dalic, ahead of the game, has already spoken about the need to press Japan high and to outwork them to avoid the sort of shock result that Germany and Spain have already fallen foul to. Unlike most sides in the knock-out stages, it also feels as if Croatia enter with a settled starting eleven, with the only real question being about whether Marko Livaja or Bruno Petkovic starts up front.