My betting strategy for player shots & shots on target
Shots and shots on target are one of the most popular Bet Builder markets, but you may wonder how to pick out the best players whilst still getting value.
I’ll break down exactly how I pick players for shots / shots on target in my Bet Builders, along with how to spot additional value you may not have thought about.
Access these player stats for free, by using my Cheat Sheet tool.
What is a shot, and what classes as a shot on target?
An attempt at scoring will be classed as a shot. It still counts regardless of if it was from a set-piece, or a header. One of the only times it won’t is if play had already stopped.
For a shot to be classed as on target, it either needs to result in a goal, get saved by the goalkeeper, or stopped by the last man. Hitting the woodwork doesn’t count as on target.
It’s also likely to be ruled out as a shot on target if there’s an obvious deflection, or no real attempt to score. E.g: a cross that ends up being tipped over by the goalkeeper.
What to look at when choosing a player selection
I have three guidelines in my betting strategy when picking a player selection:
- Will they play the full 90 minutes? This removes any issue if they are subbed off early. To decide this, I look into their average minutes per game, the significance of the upcoming match and whether or not injuries may play a role. For example: I’d avoid a player recently back from injury.
- Do the opposition concede many shots? I’d probably avoid a player for a shot on target if they were likely to be dominated by the opposition. For example: If Man City fielded their strongest XI against a lower league side in the FA Cup, I probably wouldn’t pick an opposition player.
- Does the player rank high for shots/shots on target? It’s pretty important that the player you’re deciding on has a high average for shots, or shots on target. An average of 0.75+ is suitable, this means it’s landing in 75% of their games.
When to back a shot, and when to back a shot on target
For a shot, I’d focus more on defenders and midfielders. The odds will be shorter, but there’s still value to be found. It’s likely midfielders and forwards will be preferred for shots on target, as they’ll rank higher and get more attacking opportunities.
For example in terms of odds:
- Man City striker Erling Haaland: 1.01 for a shot, 1.2 for a shot on target
- Man City defender Ruben Dias: 1.83 for a shot, 3.5 for a shot on target
If you looked at shot averages you’d see why those prices are decided. Haaland averages 4.0 shots, with 2.5 on target. Dias averages 0.33 shots, with 0.17 on target.
Using those averages, this means that Dias has a shot in 33% of his games and may be worth the risk if they are playing a weaker side in which he’ll get forward for set pieces.
Example Bet Builder: Haaland to have 2+ shots on target and Dias to have a shot.
