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The goalkeeper saves market is one of the newer options available on bet builder markets, but it has proved to be a welcome addition that often offers plenty of value.
If you know where to look, it can be an excellent option to consider when crafting a bet builder, and this guide will give you all the tools to find value in this market.
🧤 What are goalkeeper saves?
As with almost any bet builder market, the key here is understanding what Opta consider to be a save, as the vast majority of UK bookmakers rely on their stat-keeping to settle their markets.
Opta defines a save as follows:
A goalkeeper preventing the ball from entering the Goal with any part of their body when facing an intentional attempt from an opposition player
Opta
However, they also go on to state that this can include:
Unintentional or misplaced efforts on target from a Goalkeeper’s own teammates, but only if the intervention is not perceived to be a routine collection of the ball
Opta
If a defender heads the ball towards his own goal and the keeper dives to prevent the ball going into the net, that would still count as a save. One other thing to bear in mind is that they do evaluate how important the touch from the keeper was in stopping the ball from going into the net.
For example, if a keeper got a hand to the ball, but a defender was behind them on the line and cleared it, this would not count as a save, but would instead go down as a block for the defender.
Essentially then, saves are fairly easy to follow as you watch the game. If the goalkeeper has prevented the ball from going into the net, it will count as a save the vast majority of the time.
🧐 How to research goalkeeper saves
Betting on the goalkeeper saves markets is fortunately one of the less research-intensive markets to delve into. Most of the time, it is fairly straightforward to predict which of the two goalkeepers involved in a game will be busier than the other.
Whilst a team may upset the favourites and secure an unexpected 1-0 win, it is much rarer that a side expected to win a game will not have more attempts on goal, and a higher number of goalkeeper saves will generally follow.
For example, when Wolves beat Man City 2-1 at Molineux last season, goalkeeper Jose Sa made a huge seven saves, with City having 23 shots to Wolves’ three. Despite the surprise outcome, the saves market still followed the pattern you would expect.
The same also held when Crystal Palace beat Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield, with the Reds outshooting Palace 21-4 and Eagles goalkeeper Dean Henderson being forced into five saves.
Therefore, the key stats to look for when betting on this market are all depicted in the pictures above. Total shots and shots on target, along with xG and to a lesser extent, possession, are all crucial to understanding where goalkeeper saves are likely to come.
Looking at previous goalkeeper saves are useful, but less important than understanding which team is likely to be on the front foot and having more of the shots. The quality of the opponent is the key to understanding how many saves are likely to be made in a given game.
📈 How to find value in the market
Value is found when you have at least one team involved in a game that is likely to have plenty of shots on goal. This does not necessarily have to mean a one-sided game either, two attacking-minded teams going head-to-head can also produce high numbers in this metric.
For example, Liverpool and Man City both ranked either first or second in the Premier League for xG, total shots and total shots on target last season. As a result, their 1-1 draw at Anfield in March saw both keepers make five saves each, whilst in their other clash at the Etihad, Alisson made four saves and Ederson made two.
One-sided games are also good opportunities in these markets, although they will naturally offer less value. Most bookmakers that offer this market cap the number of saves that you can back a goalkeeper to make at four, but that is still more than enough to find strong value in games with a heavy favourite.
Referring back to Man City and Liverpool, Pep Guardiola’s side had nine games in which they scored four or more goals, whilst the Reds did so in seven. Of these games, City saw the opposing goalkeeper make four or more saves in six of these games, whilst Liverpool forced four or more saves in six of their seven.
It can work the other way too, with last season’s three relegated sides providing a strong example. Burnley’s keeper made 4+ saves in 20 of their 38 league games, Sheffield United’s stopper made four or more saves in 23 of their games, and Luton’s keeper made 4+ saves in 18 of their fixtures.
Sides who struggle to hold the ball and get shots away will find themselves under near-constant pressure, which will lead to more shots coming in, and more saves for the keeper to make.
Value tends to be found at the higher end of this betting market, but there are situations in which backing a keeper to make one or two saves can make sense. Teams that are heavily favoured to win games but still concede relatively large numbers of shots in a game will offer good odds for their goalkeeper to make two or more saves in a game.
For example, backing Liverpool’s goalkeeper to make two or more saves in a league game last season would have landed in 28 of their 38 games. Of their 10 games against the bottom five teams in the league, seven saw at least two saves made by Liverpool’s goalkeeper, despite them going unbeaten across these fixtures, winning nine and drawing one.
Summary
Goalkeeper Saves betting is a fantastic market to look into, especially when crafting bet builders. It is one of the easier markets to understand, with clear indicators that make it obvious which games offer good value.
As with any bet, there is no better golden ticket than simply doing your research, and these tips above should help you minimise the amount of time it takes to do it effectively.
I hope you found my guide on betting on goalkeeper saves helpful. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or Instagram to let me know your thoughts, and share your winning bets if you’ve had some luck using my Bet Builder Stats tool.
To wrap up, here’s a list of the top 10 goalkeepers who made the most saves in the Premier League last season:
- Andre Onana of Manchester United (149)
- Thomas Kaminski of Luton Town (145)
- Alphonse Areola of West Ham (138)
- Bernd Leno of Fulham (134)
- Jose Sa of Wolves (134)
- Wes Foderingham of Sheffield United (133)
- Jordan Pickford of Everton (121)
- Mark Flekken of Brentford (115)
- Neto of AFC Bournemouth (115)
- Guglielmo Vicario of Tottenham (110)
*Stats taken from the 2023/2024 Premier League season
Good luck.
Andy Robson
Written by Andy Robson
18+ Please gamble responsibly.
