Hearts currently sit at the top of the Scottish Premiership after the first 13 games of the season, but it's important to examine how they have achieved this. This piece will look at Hearts’ strong start to the Scottish Premiership season, including charts, data and expert insights.

Various examples of analysis will be used to look at different aspects of their performances and approaches this season.

Expected Goals (xG)

Expected goals have been talked about a lot in recent years, and this is a metric regularly used to help analyse a team’s performance. It essentially measures the quality of chances you are creating and conceding.

Hearts' xG stats have been highlighted on the plot, and the numbers show how strong Hearts have been at both ends of the pitch. Not only have Hearts created an average xG of 1.83 per game, which is very strong, but they have outperformed this by scoring an average of 2.41 goals per game. Although outperforming your xG can indicate the team's finishing quality, you don’t want your team consistently overperforming against their xG, as you would be heavily reliant on excellent finishing to get results, which can be unsustainable.

Hearts have only conceded an xG of 0.88 per 90 minutes this season, with only Celtic bettering it. One of the reasons for these strong defensive performances has been their continuity in team selection, as well as the strength of their spine in the team. Derek McInnes has regularly lined his side up in a 4-4-2 this year. He has predominantly selected the same players in those positions, which has helped create momentum and build understanding between the players on the pitch. A solid centre back pairing of Stuart Findlay and Craig Halkett have almost been ever-present so far in front of experienced goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow. In midfield, Cammy Devlin and Beni Baningime have provided both energy and quality, with a front two of Lawrence Shankland and Claudio Braga providing a combined 15 goals and assists.

Many have started to compare Hearts’ strong start to Aberdeen’s start to the 24/25 campaign, where they started to drop down the table after a really strong start. However, when looking at the xG statistics from last year, Aberdeen were only creating an xG of 1.37 per 90 minutes and were also conceding an xG of 1.35 per 90 minutes, resulting in an xG differential of +0.16. This indicated that they were massively overperforming in both boxes, which makes it hard to sustain results over a season when performing at those levels. Whereas Hearts’ xG differential after a similar number of games is +11.6, indicating that they are consistently getting into goal-scoring positions and keeping things tight at the back.

Hearts Creativity

One of the standout statistics from the season so far has been the number of smart passes played by each of the teams. A smart pass is categorised by a creative and penetrative pass that attempts to break the opposition’s defensive lines to gain a significant advantage in attack.

The table above shows the number of smart passes each team has played per 90 minutes this season. When looking at the number of smart passes Hearts play per game (2.22), it is no surprise that they are creating so many goal-scoring chances and are the league’s top goal scorers. When looking at where these smart passes are coming from, we need to look at the individual statistics.

Looking at the chart above, we can see that Hearts have got three of the top six players in the league when it comes to smart passes. Two of whom are Lawrence Shankland and Alexander Kyziridis, who have received a lot of credit for Hearts’ forward play this season. However, leading the way on nine smart passes so far this season is midfielder Cammy Devlin. This may come as a surprise, as Devlin is usually known for his work off the ball and for his build-up play in the middle and defensive thirds, but he is certainly having a big influence on the way Hearts are creating chances this season.

An important factor in this could be the change of formation and the role Devlin plays in this system. Last season, Hearts played a variety of formations, including a 4-2-3-1 and a 4-3-3, which meant Devlin was playing alongside two other players in the centre of midfield. However, in the 4-4-2, which has been predominantly played this season, there will have been more of an emphasis on Devlin supporting attacks and play passes in behind the opposition's back line.

Dominance in the Duels

So much is made of formations and tactics in football now, and as much as this does play a big part, the players still need to win their individual duels when they step on the pitch.

From the statistics above, we can see that Hearts are the strongest in the league when it comes to winning their duels. They have the highest percentage of defensive duels won (67.5%) and also have one of the highest percentages of offensive duels won (39.8%). Hearts are also very strong when it comes to their aerial duels, with the second-highest percentage of aerial duels won in the league (52.1%).

Although Hearts were strong in their defensive duels last season, it is no surprise that they have continued to be dominant in their duels after the appointment of Derek McInnes this season. McInnes’ Kilmarnock side last year were the third best team in the league when it came to defensive duels won, and they were also the fourth best team when it came to aerial duels.

A More Direct Style of Play

Last season, the passing statistics indicated that Hearts were at the lower end of the table when it came to the number of long passes, and they also had the second-lowest long pass accuracy in the league. However, their passing tendencies have changed this season.

Looking at the plot, we can see that Hearts have become a lot more direct in their play with 48.3 long passes per game, which is one of the highest in the league. The accuracy of their long passing has also dramatically improved as they now have the highest long passing accuracy of any team in the league, with an accuracy of 57.2%. One of the explanations for this change to a direct approach could be the influence of new manager Derek McInnes. Last season, Kilmarnock were one of the most direct teams in the league under McInnes, with the most long passes per game (53.33), and they were also the third most accurate team in the league when it came to long passes (53.1%).

Although this change may be due to tactical instructions, it may also be caused by the way other teams play against Hearts and how they press them. PPDA (Passes per defensive action) is a metric used to assess the intensity of a team's press. The lower the PPDA value, the better and more effective the team's press is. The statistics this season show that the teams that are pressed the least and most ineffectively were Celtic (PPDA against of 23.1), Rangers (15.9), and Motherwell (13.6). In comparison, Hearts have the 7th lowest PPDA against which shows that opposition teams are pressing them higher up the pitch compared to a lot of the other sides in the league. This may have influenced Hearts into playing more long passes instead of trying to play riskier passes through the opposition's press.

Intensity of The High Press

We have looked at PPDA (Passes per Defensive Action) for teams coming up against Hearts, but it is also important that we look at the numbers behind Hearts’ approach when it comes to pressing.

From the stats, we can see that Hearts’ PPDA score this season is 9.51, which places them 3rd in the league when it comes to pressing intensity. It is also better than the European average of 11 PPDA and is an improvement of 10.6% from last season. This indicates that they are trying to play more on the front foot in games by pressing the opposition higher up the pitch. Looking at the number of high recoveries each side is completing each game, it is evident that the higher press from Hearts this season is paying off. Hearts are averaging 15.96 high recoveries each game, which is the second-highest in the league.

One reason why they are so effective at this is due to the work that their strikers have been doing off the ball. Lawrence Shankland has won possession in the final third an average of 0.9 times per game this year, as well as averaging 3.2 recoveries per game in the midfield area. His partner up front, Claudio Braga, is putting in similar numbers with an average of 0.9 recoveries in the final third and an average of 2.2 recoveries in the midfield area. Without this work by the two strikers, Hearts would not be able to put this kind of pressure on their opponents high up the pitch and would, in turn, concede more territory and possession.

Attacking Threat from Wide Areas

Although a lot of the goals Hearts have scored so far this season have been created from different areas of the pitch, they have created a lot of chances from wide areas and, in particular, crosses to inside the 6-yard box.

From the graph above, we can see that there are a few teams that get that ball into the opposition's 6-yard box a lot more than the rest of the teams in the league. One of which is Hearts, who cross the ball into the opposition's 6-yard box 3.4 times per game on average. Getting the ball into the opposition's 6-yard box doesn’t automatically translate into more goals; however, the more you get the ball into this area, the more pressure you will be putting on the opposition's defence. In addition to this, if you are accurate with these balls into the 6-yard box, the chances you are creating are more likely to result in goals due to the proximity to the goal.

In order to create chances from wide areas, you need wingers or full-backs that can deliver quality into the box, and Hearts certainly have this. Both Alexandros Kyziridis and Harry Milne, who have started as Hearts wingers for most of the season, have created a lot of chances and goals for their side. Kyziridis has created the most chances in the league so far this season (24) and is also second on the assists table with four assists. Whilst Milne has created 22 chances this season and sits 4th on the assists table with three assists.

Despite several crosses coming from both sides of the pitch, 57% of these come from their left-hand side. One factor behind this may be due to the personnel in the wide positions. On the right-hand side, Harry Milne has played as the winger, with Oisin McEntee at right-back.

Although these two players have performed well in these positions, these are not their natural positions, as Harry Milne has played most of his career at left-back and McEntee is used to playing in the centre of midfield. This may cause them to drift inside a lot and recycle the ball or play a ball centrally into the front players.

Whereas on the left-hand side, it has been Stephen Kingsley at left full back and Alexandros Kyziridis playing ahead of him at left wing. Both of these players are playing in their natural positions, which has allowed them to be more comfortable going both on the inside and outside. This will then allow them to get to the byline more and create more chances from wide areas.

Conclusion

Despite there being quite a few standout performers for Hearts this season, it has certainly been a team effort that has driven their side to the top of the table. Both defensively and offensively, they have been statistically strong, and if they keep playing at the level they are at the moment, there is no reason why they cannot sustain this strong start and challenge at the top of the table this season.

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