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🤔 What are Expected Points (xP)?
Expected Points (xP) is a football metric that estimates how many points a team deserves to earn from a match based on their performance. It is an extension of the Expected Goals (xG) metric, which evaluates the quality of scoring chances a team creates.
While xG focuses on the likelihood of scoring goals from shot opportunities, xP calculates the probability of a team winning, drawing, or losing based on both the chances they created and the ones they conceded. The maximum xP a team can earn is three, just like the real points awarded for a win.
🔬 How are xP Calculated?
To calculate xP, match simulations are conducted using xG data. These simulations are run numerous times —often thousands — to model the outcomes of a match based on the xG data. For each simulation, the xG values for both teams predict how likely each team is to score. As the simulations are repeated, the probability of each result — win, draw, or loss, is determined.
For instance, if a team wins in 60% of simulations, draws in 20%, and loses in 20%, the probabilities for those outcomes are 60%, 20%, and 20%. The formula for xP is calculated as follows:
- xP = (Win Probability x 3) + (Draw Probabiity x 1) + (Loss Probability x 0)
If the win probability is 60%, draw probability 20%, and loss probability 20%, the xP would be:
- xP = (0.60 × 3) + (0.20 × 1) + (0.20 × 0) = 1.80 + 0.20 = 2.00 expected points.
This means the team should expect to earn 2 points based on their performance.
🕵️ How Can Expected Points (xP) Help a Betting Strategy?
xP offers bettors a way to evaluate teams based on their performance, rather than their actual results, which can be influenced by luck or randomness. Here is how it can enhance betting decisions:
- Spotting Overperforming and Underperforming Teams: Teams that consistently perform better or worse than their xP suggest may experience regression. For example, a team that overperforms (i.e., has actual points higher than their xP) may not be as strong as their results indicate and could start losing matches. Conversely, underperforming teams could start earning more points as their performances eventually align with their xP.
- Recent form xP for Short-Term Betting: Bettors can analyse individual match data to determine which teams have been performing better than their recent results suggest. A team that has dominated games in terms of xP but failed to win could be worth backing in upcoming matches, especially if their odds are favourable.
- Long-Term Betting Markets: xP data can help in predicting league positions, relegation, or top-four finishes. Teams that consistently outperform their xP might regress over time, while underperformers could improve.
- In-Play Betting: During a match, if a team is generating high-quality chances but has not scored, bettors might consider backing them to score later in the game. Similarly, a team winning with low xG and xP might be at risk of losing their lead.
📋 Understanding xP and Its Relation to xG
xP is intricately linked to Expected Goals (xG). xG measures the likelihood of a goal being scored based on shot quality, considering factors such as shot angle, distance, and body part used. xP builds on this by using xG data to simulate the entire match and predict the outcome in terms of points (win, draw, or loss).
While xG helps to understand whether a team was likely to score, xP takes it further by predicting how the match should have ended based on the chances created and conceded. This makes xP a valuable tool for understanding not just the quality of scoring opportunities, but how they influence the result of the match.
🧠 Pros and Cons of Using xP
Pros:
- More Accurate Performance Evaluation: xP accounts for the quality of chances, removing the element of luck from a team’s results, and providing a clearer picture of their actual performance.
- Predictive Power: Teams that underperform in xP may eventually see their actual points align with their xP. This provides bettors with valuable insights into which teams may improve or decline.
- Long-Term Strategy: Over a season, xP can indicate teams likely to improve or regress, helping bettors make more informed long-term bets, such as league positions or relegation outcomes.
Cons:
- Randomness in Individual Matches: Football is unpredictable, and even teams with a high xP can lose due to factors like defensive errors or exceptional performances by the opposition.
- Game-State Ignorance: xP does not fully account for tactical changes based on the scoreline, like teams playing defensively after taking the lead, which may impact betting outcomes.
- Overemphasis on Under/Overperformance: Bettors may assume that all teams will regress to the mean, but teams can defy expectations for extended periods.
Summary
In conclusion, xP is a powerful tool for football analysis and betting strategies, offering insights that go beyond traditional results. However, like any statistical model, it should be used alongside other factors such as team form, injuries, and game context for the best outcomes.
Now you should have a better understanding of expected points and it’s power, which should boost your betting skills.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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