Wolves v Blackburn Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.09
Mateus Mane could be a real standout player for Wolves in the Championship this season having impressed in the second half of last campaign in what was a pretty poor season for the Wanderers overall.
Wolves have managed to keep the 18 year old despite heavy interest from Premier League clubs, highlighting the talent and ceiling of Mane who scored three goals across 19 starts in the top flight last term from 42 shots (2.11 per 90).
We saw this shot volume again in Wolves’ 3-0 win over Port Vale in the cup with Mane taking four shots. He could be a bit more accurate with these efforts as only 17 found the target last season (0.85 per 90), but the volume is promising enough to back him for an effort on target here - especially seeing as he’s as short as 1.1 for 2+ shots.
I’m quite surprised that Wolves have been able to keep Andre for this campaign. He was one of their more consistent players last term alongside Joao Gomes in midfield, who has departed to join Aston Villa.
Andre’s quality on the ball is paired with a tenacity that sees him get through quite a lot of work in the middle of the park. He committed 47 fouls across 30 starts in the Premier League last season, working out to an average of 1.53 fouls committed per 90.
His main opponent here is likely to be Todd Cantwell, who won 52 fouls across his 22 starts in the Championship last season (2.26 per 90). Cantwell is likely to be Blackburn’s main attacking threat in this game so Andre will have to keep a close eye on him.
We’ve had a chance to see both of these sides in competitive matches already this season in the first round of the EFL Cup.
Both sides saw 3+ goals in those games, with both covering the line we need here on their own in victories over Burton and Port Vale.
Those were obviously lower league opponents and games that these sides were expected to win, but I can see Wolves covering this line on their own - as they have done in their last three matches.
Both sides also saw very high xG tallies in those cup ties, both allowing their opponents to register an xG of 1.75 or higher which may suggest a bit of defensive vulnerability at both ends.
Only Derby (109) and Hull (115) picked up more yellow cards in the Championship last season than Blackburn (100 - 2.17 per game).
Any side that travels to take on Wolves in the Championship this season will expect to spend a lot of time without the ball, given the quality that the Wanderers have in the squad and style of play that Cesar Peixoto wants to employ.
Wolves can be pretty feisty as well having committed more fouls than any other side in the Premier League last season, ranking second for that metric in the season prior.
Blackburn committed 14 fouls in their cup win over Burton last time out, and were very fortunate to avoid a second caution after Todd Cantwell was cautioned early on.
I expect Wolves to get off to a strong start here in what should play out to be a successful season following relegation from the Premier League.
Wolves have kept key players like Mateus Mane and Andre, as well as adding crucial experience through Kieran Trippier and Raul Jimenez which should help them be a competitive side at the top end of the Championship.
Blackburn only avoided the drop by five points in the Championship last term and haven’t really addressed many of the issues that left them in that situation.
Tony Mowbray is a capable manager at this level, but I do have concerns about if he’s got the right tools to be as effective as he has been across previous stints at other Championship clubs.
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Andy's 26/27 Premier League Goalscorer Outright ⚽ @ 26.00
Don’t need to say much here, the guy is a freak.
He’s scored 25+ goals in three of his four seasons in the Premier League.
Only Haaland (24) scored more non-penalty goals in the Premier League than Semenyo (16) last season.
He’ll be one of City’s biggest goal threats away from Erling Haaland with there being a 10 goal gap between Semenyo and City’s next biggest scorer in Foden last season.
Semenyo has been in very good form during pre-season, registering an assist in all three of his appearances. He’s also spoken about enjoying his role under Maresca and he should continue to be a threat in front of goal.
Morgan Gibbs-White finished last season with his best ever goal tally in the Premier League, netting 15 goals across his 35 starts with only one of these goals coming from the penalty spot.
This tally was nine more goals than Forest’s next top scorer in Igor Jesus - so we can expect Gibbs-White to be an influential player in front of goal for Forest again this campaign with Chris Wood likely to be absent for the start of the season.
Gibbs-White should have extra motivation this season too after being left out of the England squad over the summer, and has plenty of creative teammates to fashion him chances.
Bryan Mbeumo ended last season as Manchester United’s joint top scorer in the Premier League with 11 goals to his name.
He’s a proven goalscorer in the division having reached double digits in each of the last two campaigns - including a 20 goal haul in his final season at Brentford.
Manchester United also play in a way that really suits Mbeumo with Carrick wanting his side to play in transition, making the most of the speed Mbeumo has when running in behind.
Morgan Rogers has made the move from Villa to Chelsea over the summer in a big money transfer which carries a lot of expectation.
Rogers has scored 14+ goals across all competitions in each of his last two seasons with Aston Villa and his output should improve further now that he has the likes of Palmer and Joao Pedro around him.
Rogers’ shot volume has steadily increased over the last two campaigns and he should get plenty of chances as part of an exciting Chelsea attack guided by Xabi Alonso.
Saturday's Goals Accumulator ⚽️ (Using Goals Sheet) @ 3.80
This game is rated at 9.48 for Over 1.5 Goals on my Goals Sheet.
Newly-promoted Rochdale will be looking to make an impression on their return to the EFL, and they could cover this line on their own as they travel to relegation-favourites Newport.
Both sides saw the bet land in their EFL Cup first round outing, and Dale scored 88 goals (1.91 per game) on their way to posting 106 points in the National League last season.
Barnsley have been a great side for overs goals betting in recent years. My Goals Sheet has their opening day clash with Bromley rated at 9.18 for Over 1.5 Goals.
Barnsley were actually worse defensively at home than they were away last season and have a new, but old, manager at the helm, with Daniel Stendel returning for a second spell.
Bromley know where the goal is, having won League Two last season, and are especially dangerous from set pieces, scoring 31 goals from them in the league last season - which was the most in the fourth tier by four clear goals.
KFUM v Lillestrom is rated 8.85 by my Goals Sheet for Over 1.5 Goals.
Over 2.5 has landed in three of KFUM’s last four, and the same can be said for Lillestrom, so this lower line is well within reach.
Their last seven competitive head-to-head games have covered the over 1.5 line, and the hosts need the points as they currently only have a three-point cushion on the Eliteserien relegation spots.
My Goals Sheet rates this game at 8.93 for Over 1.5 Goals.
An evenly matched game is expected, with both sides finishing on the exact same points (37) last season.
Their most recent meeting saw this bet land just after the hour mark. Gaziantep saw over 1.5 goals in their last 11 games of last season and are narrow favourites for the game.
My Goals Sheet rates this game at 9.33 for Over 2.5 Goals.
Which is the highest rating of the day for Over 2.5 Goals, so it’s a great one to have in an accumulator.
Both sides’ most recent games saw over 3.5 goals, with Fortuna Sittard impressively drawing 2-2 away at PSV.
Covering this line on their own is a possibility if they can carry on that positive attacking form, with Cambuur losing 4-0 at home to Excelsior last time out.
Saturday Early KO Accumulator ⏰ @ 10.32
Bolton were a really entertaining team to watch in League One last season and should still see plenty of goals in their games now that they have made the step up to the Championship.
I expect Bolton to battle in the bottom half of the Championship this term as a newly promoted side, but they can definitely cause surprises and be an awkward side to play in front of their own supporters.
Bolton scored 46 goals at home in League One last season (2.0 per game), only the two automatically promoted sides in Cardiff (50) and Lincoln (53) scored more goals at home than Steven Schumacher’s side.
Preston saw 2+ goals in their first round game of the EFL Cup as they progressed on penalties after a 1-1 draw in normal time. Their away fixtures saw an average of 2.56 goals per game in the Championship last term.
I think we’re going to see Leicester caught out at the back quite often in the early parts of their League One campaign as the Foxes attempt to implement the style of Russell Martin.
Martin is very stubborn when it comes to his style of play, he wants his team to build out from the back and focus on long passing sequences which suffocate the opposition.
This means that Leicester will have a lot of the ball, but a lot of this possession will be in their own half - or even around their own penalty area, making them vulnerable to mistakes.
Notts County held Burnley to a 1-1 draw in their EFL Cup first round game last time out, eventually bowing out on penalties.
They earned promotion from League Two last season, notably scoring 45 goals across their 23 home matches (1.95 per game). No side scored more goals at home in League Two last season than Notts County.
MK Dons are heavily fancied to be competitive at the top end of League One this season having earned promotion from League Two with an 86 point haul.
MK Dons boasted the best away record of any side in the division in last season, losing just four of their 23 matches and netting 45 goals in the process - more than any other side in the division on their travels.
Oxford have dropped down from the Championship after losing out on the relegation tussle which formed across the final few weeks at the bottom of the table. They only won seven of their 23 home games, but did manage to score 24 goals across these matches - giving both sides enough of a base to get on the scoresheet.
I really like how Luton are progressing under Jack Wilshere and the momentum they had towards the end of last season looks to have carried over with the away side running out 3-0 winners in the first round of the EFL Cup against Gillingham.
Luton went on an unreal run towards the end of last campaign, avoiding defeat in all 12 of their matches since the 10th March. They won nine of these games as well, so Wilshere is clearly building a very capable side for this level which has been bolstered by some smart business.
Reading finished 11 points below Luton in League One last season and only managed to win 10 of their 23 home matches. Luton have plenty of firepower on the road too, having scored 31 goals across their 23 away matches in League One last season - avoiding defeat in 13 of these games.
Rochdale’s promotion from the National League was one of the stories of the year last season after a gruelling battle with York that saw both sides finish on 100+ points.
Rochdale missed out on automatic promotion despite this impressive tally, but navigated the playoffs to earn promotion to the EFL after beating Boreham Wood in the final on penalties.
Rochdale scored 40 goals across their 23 away matches in the National League last season (1.73 per game) and face off against a Newport side that only avoided the drop by four points in the end after a poor campaign.
Newport conceded 37 goals at home in League Two last season (1.60 per game), only Harrogate Town - the side with the worst home record in the division - conceded more goals than Newport in front of their own supporters (38).
Both of these sides suffered bruising defeats in the first round of the EFL Cup last time out with Oldham falling to Stoke in a 2-0 defeat while Port Vale lost 3-0 to Wolves on the road.
Oldham had a decent season last term, finishing 10 points adrift of the playoff spots in the end - but they were in the race at points during the campaign. Their 23 home games produced 48 goals (2.08 per game) and they face a Port Vale side who have dropped down from League One.
Port Vale conceded 36 goals on the road in League One last season (1.56 per game) and may find this an awkward test as they attempt to bounce back into League One at the first time of asking.