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UEFA Europa Conference League Final: Fiorentina v West Ham United
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Competition: UEFA Europa Conference League Final
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch live: BT Sport 1
It is only the second year of UEFA’s third-tier competition but for fans of Fiorentina and West Ham United, it is a huge occasion.
Jose Mourinho’s Roma were the inaugural Conference League winners in 2022, and only just failed to level up after a penalty shoot-out defeat to Sevilla in the Europa League final last week. Surely the dream for La Viola and The Hammers is for a similar run to come their way.
The two clubs that have made it into the final on Wednesday night have certain similarities. Both can boast a fierce local following and a strong reputation as domestic clubs with good histories. Both clubs also won the old UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup in the 1960s and have a smattering of domestic cup triumphs to their name. However, in the modern era, this will be by far the biggest night in either club’s recent history, and the fans will feel that in the stands.
How does this affect the play on the pitch? And, importantly for us, how does this then affect what is value in the betting markets?
After a winning bet builder covering the Europa League Final, we are offering readers TWO bet builders ranging in odds to make this historical clash even more enticing for those wanting to take part.
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Europa Conference League Final Cheat Sheet
The above Cheat Sheet breaks down easily all of the stats ahead of Wednesday’s clash in Prague. However, readers can find an even more comprehensive breakdown over in our Cheat Sheet & Stats Breakdown article here.
Form of past Europa Competition Finals
Information has been gathered from the last 11 Europa League finals, including last week’s Sevilla vs Roma final, and last year’s Roma vs Feyenoord UEFA Conference League final. Also, the overall seasons and recent form of Fiorentina and West Ham have been taken into account to give us a rich data source to scour for evidence-based leans in the markets.
The minor European finals have been very tight of late. Three of the last four have ended 1-1, with Roma’s 1-0 defeat of Feyenoord last year the exception. Before that though the Europa League finals were something of a goal fest. Five of the next six going back to Dnipro 2-3 Sevilla in 2015 went over 2.5 goals.
Overall, the mean number of goals in a Europa/Conference League final in the last twelve editions is 2.83 goals. Exactly half of the finals went over 2.5 goals, with a recent tendency for the unders, and 8/12 (75%) of the finals saw both teams notch a goal in the 90 minutes.
Of the four finals that went to extra time, none of them saw any goals in the extra 30 minutes of regular football and, obviously, all of them went to penalties.
Cards are always an interesting angle in a final. There is the tendency to think that the nerves could inhibit both players and referee, but also, there is the opinion that players will give it that little bit extra to try and win a one-off game.
The history of the minor European finals probably sees a little bit of both of these theories. The last two have been card-heavy, but, both of them have involved Jose Mourinho’s Roma side. There had been a trend developing of fewer cards being given up until those finals, three of the previous four had seen under 3.5 yellow cards total in the matches.
In the twelve final data sets the mean number of yellow cards distributed in 90 minutes is 4.67, quite a high total. Only two teams in all of that data set have avoided a booking altogether, Frankfurt in the 2021 Europa League final and Arsenal in 2019. Half of the finals saw both teams get two or more cards in half of the finals.
The final point to make on the card trends is that the same number of finals had over 4.5 cards totals as over 3.5 cards. Therefore, if you fancy cards, it may be worth pushing the boat out a little further if the odds warrant it.
Just a little note on the shots lines as well. The average number of shots that teams have taken in the finals are 12.2, with 4.58 on target. If you fancy one side to dominate then it is worth bearing in mind that only 5 teams out of 24 went over 15 shots in the 90 minutes, with Benfica in 2014 and Sevilla in 2015 tying for the highest number with 18.
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⚽ Either team to win on penalties
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Odds: 5.0
With the trend of 1-1 draws in recent UEFA finals and also the recent scenes of penalty shoot-outs dominating the play-off finals in England, there seems to be a lot of instances of teams trusting their penalty preparation. As mentioned in the research above, there have been no examples of goals in extra time when the match gets there, so the price for either team to win on penalties provides a nice bit of extra value to the draw.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Cristiano Biraghi to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 2.88
Biraghi is likely to be the starting left-back for Fiorentina in the final. Whilst Biraghi only averages 1 foul per 90 this season, his direct opponent, Jarrod Bowen is by far the most fouled player in the West Ham line-up. Bowen has been fouled 26 times in the last 10 matches, the chances of Biraghi having to stop him seem very likely and is a juicy price for two or more fouls here.
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🟨 Fiorentina to receive the most cards
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Odds: 2.30
Whilst cards may be overpriced as a line, the difference between the two sides hasn’t been accentuated in the prices as much as one might expect. Fiorentina average well over a yellow card per match more than the Hammers, and whilst some of this difference will be explained by the Serie A and Premier League difference, there is still the fact that Fiorentina compiled the fourth worst disciplinary record in Italy whilst West Ham have the cleanest in England.
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🚀 Arthur Cabral to have 3+ shots
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Odds: 1.36
Arthur is Fiorentina’s main marksman. West Ham have been a bit too loose defensively all season, and they didn’t really tighten up in the latter stages. There will be times in the final when Fiorentina are on top and they will likely want to work the ball to their main forward.
Arthur averages 2.79 shots per 90 this season, he took 4 shots at the weekend against Sassuolo and has hit 3,3,5 and 4 as well in four of his last twelve starts.
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⚽ Both teams to score
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Odds: 1.85
As evidenced above, 75% of the finals in the last decade have seen both teams scoring. The odds here underplay that trend substantially. Also, both teams are in good scoring goalscoring form of late, both averaging well over their season averages in the last eight matches.
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🛑 Tomas Soucek to commit 1+ foul
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Odds: 1.20
Soucek is one of David Moyes’ trusted lieutenants and there is no way that Moyes will want to go out into battle without him. He is likely to play the full 90 minutes and when he has done that you have to go 15 matches back to Aston Villa at home on the 12th of March since Soucek last didn’t concede a single foul.
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🟨 Under 2.5 West Ham United cards
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Odds: 1.83
The line for cards is very high, perhaps influenced by last week’s Europa League match and the average over time. However, though Fiorentina have the fourth worst disciplinary record in Serie A, they average 2.45 cards per match domestically, and West Ham are the cleanest team in the Premier League. West Ham average only 1.13 cards per match, fewer even than Manchester City.
The officials in charge are Spanish, and this is perhaps another reason why the card line is so high. However, Carlos del Cerro Grande has taken charge of 32 UEFA club matches in the last four seasons and his personal average is 3.78 yellows per match. This is a relatively high number than we are used to in the Premier League, but with over 4.5 cards total being heavily odds on, there should be some value in the unders.
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