With two of the league’s most dynamic attacks clashing, this match is primed for goals. Dortmund have seen over 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 15 games, with seven of their nine home matches hitting the mark. Bayern Munich’s games follow a similar trend, with 70% of their last 10 matches exceeding 2.5 goals, rising to 80% on the road.

Historically, this fixture has been a goal-rich affair, with 32 of their 52 meetings producing over 2.5 goals. Recent encounters have followed suit, with eight of the last 10 also surpassing the three-goal threshold. With both sides’ attacking strengths, another high-scoring game is expected.

Bayern Munich boast the league’s most resolute defence, currently on a seven-game streak without conceding. However, their vulnerability on the road is evident, having let in six of their seven league goals away from home. In their last six away games across all competitions, they’ve conceded against strong attacking sides like Barcelona, Aston Villa, and Frankfurt. Despite this, Munich’s offensive power is undeniable, averaging 3.83 goals per game on the road, making goals at both ends likely.

Dortmund, meanwhile, are a different force at Signal Iduna Park. With a perfect record at home this season, they’ve scored 18 of their 22 league goals on their own turf. While they’re defensively vulnerable, averaging a goal conceded per game, they’ll face a stern test in keeping Bayern’s attack at bay. History also favours goals, with 29 of their 52 meetings seeing both teams score, including eight of the last 10.

Upamecano’s proactive style of defending often leads to fouls, with him averaging one per game this season. While he has been more disciplined recently, going three games without committing a foul, he tends to revert to his more aggressive approach in high-pressure matches. In Europe, for example, he averages 1.2 fouls per game. In his last 10 encounters with Dortmund, he committed 12 fouls and received three yellow cards. Given the intensity of this fixture and his history in similar games, it’s likely Upamecano will add to his foul tally against his side’s biggest rivals.

Felix Nmecha is a constant threat in midfield, contributing both defensively and offensively. His involvement in play makes him a prime target for fouls, averaging 1.47 fouls drawn per game this season. He has been fouled in all of his last 8 appearances, with multiple fouls drawn in 5 of those matches. Facing a midfield duo of Leon Goretzka and Konrad Laimer, who have committed 17 fouls in their last 7 games, Nmecha is highly likely to draw multiple fouls and given Goretzka and Laimer’s aggressive nature, the odds of Nmecha being fouled on numerous occasions again are high.

Felix Nmecha is a constant threat in midfield, both defensively and offensively, and as highlighted in Bet Builder Level 1, he’s consistently involved in the action. His dynamic playstyle often draws attention from opponents, but he also gets stuck in himself. Averaging 2.47 foul involvements per game, including at least one foul in 6 of his last 8 appearances, Nmecha’s ill-discipline is evident, with five of those appearances seeing multiple fouls. Given the competitive midfield he’s likely to face, it’s highly probable that he will continue to find himself on the wrong side of the referee.

Alphonso Davies is a constant threat on Bayern Munich’s left flank, where his pace and dribbling skills often force defenders into fouling him. Averaging 1.53 fouls drawn per game, he has been fouled 2 or more times in 8 of the 12 matches in which he has played the full 90 minutes. Given Dortmund’s struggles with Bayern’s attacking width, it’s highly likely that Davies will draw multiple fouls again in this encounter. With him drawing at least one foul in 12 of his 14 recent fixtures, betting on him to do so seems like a strong option.

Ramy Bensebaini is one of Dortmund’s most ill-disciplined players, with an average of 1.31 fouls per game this season. In five of his last six appearances, he has committed two or more fouls and has accumulated four yellow cards during this period. As one of the most carded players in the league, Bensebaini is likely to face an even tougher challenge against Bayern Munich’s potent attacking force. Given his aggressive and cynical defensive play, it’s highly probable that he will pick up another yellow card in this high-stakes derby.

Bayern’s talisman Harry Kane has seamlessly settled into Bundesliga life, recently breaking the record for the shortest number of games to score 50 Bundesliga goals–beating the prolific Erling Haaland. He remains relentless regardless of competition scoring 20 goals across this season. His hat-trick last week demonstrated his clinical finishing, and with an average of 3.94 shots per game, including 1.94 on target. With his ability to outperform his xG (scoring 14 goals from an expected 10.09), Kane is a constant threat to any defence. Given his prolific form and ability to score in any situation, backing Kane to score at any time seems like a solid option.