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Andy's Sunday Accumulator @ 4.60

Telstar are a very confusing side, they sit in the relegation zone in the Eredivisie and have the worst home record of any side in the division - but still find a way to consistently score goals. Telstar have won just one of their 10 home matches in the Eredivisie this season, but have scored 17 goals across those matches.

The issue for Telstar has been keeping sides out, with Anthony Correira’s side conceding 22 goals across those games, only Heracles (23) have conceded more goals at home than Telstar in the Dutch top-flight this term. 

Telstar have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, including a five-goal thriller against Ajax, which highlights their ability to be involved in high-scoring matches despite being one of the weaker sides in the division. The most recent head-to-head meeting between these sides saw BTTS as Alkmaar ran out 2-1 winners over Telstar, in a game that saw a combined xG of 4.96.

Brentford and manager Keith Andrews have been a genuine surprise this campaign. Many, myself included, expected them to struggle after losing their club captain, manager, and two biggest attacking threats in the same window. However, the club has adapted brilliantly - a testament to the effective and resilient structure in place.

The Bees’ formidable home form is central to their success, remaining unbeaten in 10 of their 11 matches at the Gtech Community Stadium this season. Their only defeat came against Manchester City, a victory Pep Guardiola’s side did not earn easily. This underscores just how difficult a trip to West London is for any Premier League side at the moment. Brentford have won seven of these games with only Villa, City and Arsenal winning more games at home this term in the Premier League.

Nottingham Forest, in contrast, appear nervy and uncertain. There seems to be a disconnect between the players and what manager Sean Dyche is asking of them. Their latest frustration was a 1-0 Europa League defeat away to Braga in midweek. Forest have managed just one win in their last five matches - against a West Ham side who have been equally poor.

With only three away wins in eleven Premier League attempts this season, it is difficult to see Forest becoming just the second side to triumph at Brentford’s fortress. Factor in their fatigue from the trip to Portugal, while Brentford have enjoyed a full week to prepare, and all signs point toward a home victory.

Atletico Madrid have been near faultless at home in LaLiga this season with nine wins from their 10 games at the Metropolitano. Diego Simeone’s side have picked up more points than any other side at home in the Spanish top flight this term (28) and have only conceded seven goals across these games.

That defensive record is particularly notable as they take on a Mallorca side that have only won one of their 10 away matches in LaLiga this term, only scoring 10 goals across these games. Only three sides in the division have picked up fewer points on the road than Mallorca this term, which is pretty reflective of how their campaign has unfolded.

Mallorca sit 15th in LaLiga and are only two points above the drop zone. They’ve only managed to win one of their last five matches, with this victory coming at home against Athletic club last time out  - a win that was aided by their opponents being reduced to 10 men in the second half.

I can’t see Mallorca finding a way to breakdown this stubborn Atletico Madrid defence which has kept eight clean sheets this season. It’s also worth noting that Mallorca are overachieving their xG by a few goals, so their already weak record in front of goal is actually even worse than it appears on paper.

I really like Danny Rohl and thought he would end up in a big job after the job he did at Sheffield Wednesday with all the background noise at his former club.

He’s made Rangers an organised and effective side, particularly when they are without the ball which has resulted in Rohl avoiding defeat in 16 of his 21 matches in charge so far - maintaining a solid win percentage of 62%.

Rangers come into this clash with real momentum having won each of their last seven matches across all competitions, including a victory over Celtic in the Old Firm Derby. This recent run has moved Rangers to within six points of the league leaders, Hearts, and Rohl will feel as though that gap isn’t insurmountable.

Rangers have lost just one of their 11 home games in the Scottish Premiership this season, though Rohl will want to turn a few of those draws (4) into victories to ensure that Rangers keep the pressure on Hearts and Celtic in the race for the title.

Dundee have managed to put together a decent run of form themselves over the last five matches, but it’s impossible to ignore their dire away record in the Scottish top flight this term. Only Livingston (4) have picked up fewer points on the road than Dundee (6) in the Scottish Premiership this term - with Dundee losing seven of their 11 away games.

Rangers ran out 3-0 winners in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, and should be able to deal with the current iteration of Dundee who are poor travellers as further shown by the fact that they’re the lowest scorers away from home in the Scottish Premiership this season (5).

Football

Villarreal v Real Madrid Bet Builder @ 3.40

I love the double chance market here and want to back Los Blancos to either win this game or take a point back to Madrid. They come into this in good form, with the team winning both of new manager Arbeloa’s games so far. Even looking back across the whole season, this is a team who have impressed on the road.

They’ve only lost one of their games away from the Bernabeu, and that came across the city against Atletico, back in September. They’ve conceded 1.1 goals per game away from home in La Liga, but fortunately, they’re the league’s second-highest road scorer, and with the attacking talents at their disposal, they’re always ripe to outscore their rivals.

Villarreal have been phenomenal at home this season, with just one loss, but look across all competitions, and that’s now two defeats at home in their past three games. Expand that to all games, and they’ve won just two of their past six. With the feel-good vibe returning to Real’s squad, they should take something from this game.

I’m confident that we’ll see plenty of goals on Saturday. Historically, this matchup has always been one that is high scoring, with eight of the last games between these clubs, at Estadio de la Ceramica finishing with over 2.5 goals.

Looking in more detail at their games this season, there have been over 2.5 goals in six of Villarreal’s ten games at home. There’s only been one game in which they’ve been shut out from scoring, and that was the game against Barcelona, in which they finished with just 10 men. They’ve only failed to score in three games all season in the league, and will fancy their chances against a Real Madrid backline that have only given up two fewer goals than them.

As for Real themselves, this is a team who have averaged over two goals per game on their own, let alone including the opposition. We’ve also seen both of Arbeloa’s games so far end with Real scoring at least two. Real have only been stopped from scoring twice all season, and have scored in all but one on the road. Across 10 away games, there have been over 2.5 goals in seven.

Real’s French star Kylian Mbappe was a lot of the blame for the departure of Xabi Alonso, but he’s been exceptional this season. He scored a brace midweek against Monaco to make it 11 goals in six Champions League games, as he ended up scoring both of his two shots on target against his former club. He also scored against Levante in Arbeloa’s first game as manager and finished with three shots on target too.

With 19 goals in 19 league games, he’s been unstoppable and unsurprisingly, he leads the league in shots on target with 85 across his La Liga season to date. That’s miles clear of the 48 of his nearest rival, Robert Lewandowski, and even further ahead of his next teammate, Vinicius Junior, who has 28. He’s averaged a mind-blowing 2.62 shots on target per 90 minutes played, and with Villarreal allowing 13.1 shots per game, the sixth most in La Liga, we’ll see Mbappe get plenty of chances to have two shots on target.

Vinicius has had a good season this year, and although he and Mbappe still play in the same left channel sometimes, they’re beginning to work each other out. There’s one area that the Brazilian still hasn’t worked out yet, and that’s with his discipline.

He’s undoubtedly a gifted player, but with roughly the same number of yellow cards as goals, there are questions to be asked about the way in which he lets the occasion get the better of him. He gives up a lot of fouls, which is unusual for attacking players, and can often be petulant if he gets involved in physical battles with the opponents.

He’s averaged 1.2 fouls per 90 minutes played in La Liga this season and has also committed a foul in both of Arbeloa’s two games in charge of the team so far. Villarreal will know what they need to do to wind him up here.

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Andy’s Bet Club is a valuable sports betting tool, designed to help you make smarter and safer betting decisions ahead of the 25/26 sporting calendar.

Founded in 2019 by Andy Robson, the UK’s most popular football tipster, the website started as a way for his social media followers to access his goals betting algorithm automatically, as well as his expert football betting tips

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It covers over 750 football leagues worldwide, with filter options by date, market, competition, and minimum odds or probability.

Hit Rates Horse Racing Each-Way Tips

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There are various filters for ground conditions and distance too.

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