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Chelsea v Bournemouth Bet Builder @ 3.12

Neither of these sides are in the best period of their season with both losing their games at the weekend to set up what could be a real nervy affair at times. Chelsea looked really open every time that Villa went forward at the weekend, with the Blues allowing Unai Emery’s side to have five big chances and eight shots on target from just 11 shots.

That 2-1 defeat marked the fourth occasion across the last five matches where Chelsea have seen BTTS. The exception in this recent run was a 2-0 win over Everton at Stamford Bridge - David Moyes’ side have only scored seven goals across their nine away matches this term so it’s not totally surprising that they failed to trouble Chelsea on that occasion.

Bournemouth have seen BTTS in each of their last three Premier League matches, and conceded four at the weekend as they lost 4-1 to Brentford on the road. The Cherries have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions, and are struggling with fatigue at the moment which is affecting their pressing structure which is key to the way they play.

Bournemouth have only managed to win one of their nine away matches in the Premier League this season, with these games producing 43 goals (4.77 per game). They’ve conceded more goals on the road than any other side in the Premier League (27) and have conceded 4+ goals in each of their last two away games.

Palmer looked a little frustrated at being taken off just after the 70th minute in Chelsea’s defeat to Villa last time out, but did manage to find the target from three shots when he was on the pitch.

He has found the target in three of his four matches since returning to fitness, only failing to do so in Chelsea’s 2-2 draw with Newcastle. He should get plenty of opportunities to find the target here against a Bournemouth side that have conceded 27 goals across their nine away games in the Premier League this season.

Bournemouth have conceded 82 shots on target across their 18 Premier League matches this season (4.55 per game) which should encourage Chelsea to take the game to the Cherries - who are also without a win across their last nine matches, so confidence couldn’t be much lower for Iraola’s side.

Chelsea had four shots on target when the sides clashed at the Vitality Stadium earlier in the campaign, with Palmer having one of these efforts on target. He should continue to grow in confidence as his fitness returns, making him a good player to watch for a shot on target here.

Semenyo is the only Bournemouth player that has managed to maintain a decent level of performance across what has been a rotten period of the season for the Cherries. Semenyo had three shots on target when these sides met at the Vitality Stadium earlier on in the campaign, and can be Bournemouth’s main threat again in this clash.

Semenyo is Bournemouth’s top scorer and assister in the Premier League this season with 12 goal contributions across his 17 Premier League appearances. These numbers make it obvious as to why some of the league's biggest clubs are linked with Semenyo, with the winger widely expected to make a move to one of the elite sides in the division in the January transfer window.

Semenyo’s shot volume is really promising when looking to back Semenyo for a shot on target in this clash. He’s had 43 shots across his 17 Premier League appearances this season (2.53 per 90) with 25 of these efforts finding the target (1.47 per 90). Semenyo has found form again after a barren spell with a goal in each of his last three matches ahead of this clash.

Bournemouth are a very ambitious side, and this has been something which has let them down in their away matches this season with Iraola failing to find the right balance between attack and defence. 

Their performances in forward areas have been pretty admirable with Bournemouth averaging 5.10 shots on target per game in the Premier League this term - only the two Manchester clubs have been finding the target more frequently than the Cherries which tells us that there isn’t a lot wrong with their approach in the final third.

Bournemouth have had 3+ shots on target in 14 of their 18 Premier League matches this season, only failing to cover this line against Newcastle, Aston Villa, Burnley and Everton - with three of these being home games. 

Chelsea are definitely vulnerable to Bournemouth’s bold approach, there isn’t a lot of confidence in the Chelsea backline at the moment as we saw against Aston Villa last time out - the Blues allowed Villa to register five big chances and eight shots on target despite the away side only having 33% of the ball.

Football

Arsenal v Aston Villa Bet Builder @ 3.38

Saka has been more willing to take aim at goal this season with his performance against Brighton at the weekend being a good example of this. Saka had seven shots in that game, with two of these efforts finding the target.

He’s had 41 shots across his 16 appearances in the Premier League this season (2.97 per 90) and is already within two goals of his tally from last campaign (6). Saka has a personal xG of 4.84 in the Premier League this season, which tells us that his current goal tally is about right for the quality of chances that have fallen his way.

Saka did have a high shot volume last season (3.48 per 90) but is seeing a few more of his attempts find the target this term, highlighting an improvement in his game which can play to our advantage here. 

Only Viktor Gyokeres (5) has scored more goals for Arsenal in the Premier League this season than Bukayo Saka - with the winger having four shots against Aston Villa when the sides clashed at Villa Park, seeing one of these attempts find the target.

Tielemans has had 14 shots across his 10 starts in the Premier League this season (1.44 per 90) , and is pretty generously priced to have an effort here. Tielemans has three shots in this fixture last season, with one of these attempts ending up in the back of the net as Villa earned a 2-2 draw at the Emirates.

Tielemans also had two shots in the most recent meeting between the sides which Villa won in the last minute through Emi Buendia. It’s worth keeping an eye on Tielemans to have a shot from outside of the box here, one of his efforts in the most recent head to head meeting came from distance and these efforts account for 64% of his shots this season.

If Tielemans does have a shot here, it is likely to come from outside of the box as Arsenal have the best defensive structure in Europe and regularly limit sides to the edge of their box. Arsenal can be good at keeping the opposition shot count down, but Villa are playing with ridiculous confidence right now having won their last 11 matches across all competitions and had 15 shots in the most recent head to head meeting. 

David Raya was forced into making 2+ saves in Arsenal’s 2-1 win over Brighton at the weekend, with one of these stops being a fabulous save to deny Yankuba Minteh. Raya isn’t a keeper that is called into action often, but is so reliable when Arsenal need him.

There are small signs that Arsenal are dragging themselves through this part of the season, their last three wins against Everton, Wolves and Brighton have all been by one goal margins and had tense finishes. 

This was the period of the season where everything unravelled for Arsenal last term, so I can see a similar scenario playing out here with Villa being a much better prepared side to test Raya when compared to the other teams that Arsenal have faced recently.

Villa have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in each of their last six Premier League matches, drawing six from Rob Sanchez against Chelsea at the weekend. They’ve drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in 13 of their 18 matches overall, including drawing four saves from David Raya in the clash at Villa Park. 

Aston Villa have won their last 11 matches across all competitions, but have seen BTTS in eight of these games. This tells me that Villa are riding their luck a little in this recent run of form, and aren’t always in control of the games they end up winning.

Aston Villa’s 2-1 win over Chelsea was a good example of this with Unai Emery’s side coming from behind to win the game - a scenario which is becoming increasingly common for Villa. Unai Emery’s side have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have seen 26 goals across their nine away matches this term (2.88 per game).

Arsenal are more than capable of covering this line on their own having scored 22 goals across their nine games at the Emirates this season (2.44 per game). The Gunners have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and in each of their last four head to head meetings against Aston Villa. 


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Founded in 2019 by Andy Robson, the UK’s most popular football tipster, the website started as a way for his social media followers to access his goals betting algorithm automatically, as well as his expert football betting tips

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