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Andy Robson

Everton v Liverpool Foul Bet Builder 🧱 @ 12.46

Mac Allister has had an underwhelming season so far, which is a criticism that can be extended to most of the Liverpool squad, and his frustration was particularly evident in both legs of Liverpool’s Champions League quarter final tie against PSG - he has booked in both legs and committed four fouls across the two matches.

Mac Allister’s foul average has been pretty modest this term (0.94 per 90), but this environment can force a rise in those numbers. Mac Allister committed 62 fouls across his 30 starts in the Premier League last season (2.14 per 90), and I think he can match the tenacity he set for most of last campaign here.

Mac Allister committed three fouls in Liverpool’s most recent trip to face their Merseyside rivals, showing how the intensity of this derby fixture can lead to an increase in his foul numbers across the season as a whole.

Idrissa Gueye committed two fouls when Everton last welcomed Liverpool, in what was the final game between the rivals at Goodison Park. He’s been performing really well alongside Garner, it’s easy to forget that he’s 36 - he plays with plenty of energy and tenacity, which should give him a good chance of committing a few fouls.

Gueye has committed 19 fouls across his 23 starts in the Premier League this season (0.89 per 90). A bit like Mac Allister, this is quite a modest foul count but Gueye gets through far more work in the middle of the park than this foul average suggests, he’s averaging 9.63 defensive contributions per 90 and 2.01 tackles per 90 in the Premier League this season, showing his true tenacity.

Gravenberch is very good in tight spaces, he was operating at a slighter higher level last season but his level hasn’t dropped as much as some of the other players in the Liverpool squad. Everton will be sitting in a compact 4-4-2 shape, so it’s important that Liverpool get players like Gravenberch on the ball as often as possible so he can break those narrow lines.

Gravenberch has drawn 36 fouls across his 29 Premier League starts this season (1.26 per 90), so we’re looking for a slight rise in his seasonal average - though he has won 2+ fouls in three of his last five Premier League matches. He’ll be up against a combative trio of Garner, Gueye and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall:

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall - 1.11 fouls committed p/90
Garner - 0.91 fouls committed p/90
Gueye - 0.89 fouls committed p/90

Ndiaye was hauled down three times when these sides met earlier in the season, and two times in just 25 minutes when Liverpool last travelled to take on Everton. He’s Everton’s best outlet at the moment with Jack Grealish out injured, and his ability to carry the ball past players should be useful for Everton here.

Ndiaye tortured Kerkez at Anfield earlier in the season, drawing three fouls from the Hungarian which is a significant increase on the 0.84 fouls per 90 that Kerkez is averaging in the Premier League. In fairness to Kerkez he has improved quite considerably since then, but his insistence to push high up the pitch will cause him problems with Ndiaye ready to exploit that space he often leaves. 

Ndiaye is averaging 1.28 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, and has also completed 55 dribbles (2.20 per 90). Ndiaye was fouled twice in Everton’s last home game as they beat Chelsea 3-0, operating in a similar role as an outlet for Everton with David Moyes’ side winning that game with only 36% of the ball. 

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Football
Andy Robson

Everton v Liverpool Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.16

Did you know Liverpool have failed to win any of their last 10 away matches against Everton? It surprised me when I saw that stat, but it’s a good omen for this leg of our Bet Builder. 

Everton have plenty to play for in this derby as they welcome their local rivals, who are probably as weak as they have been in the last five years. Everton have scored in four of their last five matches across all competitions, only failing to score against Arsenal in this sequence on the road. 

David Moyes’ side welcome a Liverpool side that have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions, notably conceding 2+ goals in all four of these defeats. Everton managed to get on the scoresheet when these sides clashed at Anfield earlier in the season - managing nine shots and an xG of 0.70 as they fell to a 2-1 defeat.

Everton have scored 21 goals across their 16 home games in the Premier League this season (1.31 per game), which lines up well with Liverpool’s record on the road - Arne Slot’s side have conceded 25 goals across their 16 away games in the Premier League this term, which is already as many as they conceded on the road last season, despite three away games reminding of the campaign.

Everton have plenty to play for here. They’re in a race to finish in a European spot for the first time in over five years, a win here would move them to within two points of Liverpool - and blow the race for a Champions League spot wide open.

Mamardashvili is filling in for Alisson at the moment for Liverpool, which is a massive blow for Arne Slot ahead of a crucial derby. Mamardashvili is not a bad keeper, but he’s definitely a drop off from the quality of Alisson - who has, at times, single handedly kept Liverpool in games of this nature.

Mamardashvili was forced into making three saves as Liverpool lost 2-0 to PSG during the week. Obviously David Moyes’ side don’t quite have the potency in attack of Dembele, Doue and Kvaratskhelia - but they do have players that can test the keeper, including Ndiaye and Dewsbury-Hall, who I’ve been really impressed with this season.

A more accurate comparison would be Mamardashvili's performance against Fulham last time out. He was forced into making four saves, with the Cottagers racking up 19 shots in total.

James Tarkowski is such an underrated centre back. He rarely puts a foot wrong, and is perfectly suited to the temperature of the Premier League - which has been tuned towards physicality and aerial duels, his bread and butter.

Tarkowski has won 31 fouls across his 31 starts in the Premier League this season (1.00 per 90). This is a really strong record for a centre back, and only really matched by Ezri Konsa in the Premier League - who is another player we regularly back to win fouls.

Tarkowski was fouled once when these sides met earlier in the season, and will be faced up by Cody Gakpo with Ekitike and Isak expected to be sidelined for this clash. Gakpo can be clumsy with his challenges, especially when playing out of position, and is averaging 1.40 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League - also committing a foul when these sides last met.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced nine match corners, just one below the line we require here. Corners have been an integral part of the Premier League this season, the 25/26 season has seen more goals from non-penalty set pieces than we have in each of the last 10 seasons.

Both of these sides have utilised corners pretty often this season. It’s a natural association you make when watching David Moyes’ sides, but Arne Slot has leant more towards these set piece situations as the season has gone on - no side has won more corners on the road than Liverpool in the Premier League this term (6.00 per game).

This is particularly interesting, as Slot came out a few weeks ago and complained about sides wanting to play in this way, focusing on marginal gains and set piece situations, but his side have become part of the trend. Everton are also pretty good for corners at home, averaging 5.31 corners per game across their 16 games at the Hill Dickinson Stadium this term.

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