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PSG v Bayern Munich Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.07

These sides have already faced off in the Champions League this season, with BTTS landing on that occasion as Bayern came away 2-1 winners over PSG at the Parc Des Princes. That victory made Bayern one of less than a handful of sides that have managed to come to the Parc Des Princes and win over the last few seasons in the Champions League, and sets up Vincent Kompany’s side to get on the scoresheet again here.

That game earlier in the season saw a combined 14 shots on target and both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.95-1.53). Bayern Munich have seen BTTS in three of their last four matches, most recently going 3-0 down to Mainz at the weekend before rallying to win 4-3 - a perfect example of how Kompany’s side can be comfortable in high scoring matches with the elite scoring power they have through Kane, Olise and Diaz.

Bayern come into this game having avoided defeat across their last 19 matches, averaging over 3.0 goals per game in this run of fixtures. I can’t see how this clash stays low scoring, there is the factor of it being a first leg so there may be cagey moments at times - but the attacking quality on display in both camps should lead to both sides being able to get on the scoresheet.

Michael Olise scored another brilliant goal at the weekend, there’s an angle available from the crowd if you haven’t seen it where you can see the curve and dip on the ball when he strikes it - it’s well worth the watch. He’s reached another level this season alongside the likes of Diaz and Kane with the trio forming one of the most well balanced frontlines i’ve seen in the modern game.

Olise has scored 22 goals across all competitions for Bayern Munich this season, already eclipsing his tally of 17 he managed in his debut year having played just one game more than he did last term. He’s registered 10 goal contributions across his 11 starts in the Champions League, four of these being goals, which has been achieved from a shot total of 39 (3.90 shots per 90).

Of these 39 efforts from Olise, 16 have found the target (1.60 per 90). These underlying numbers are very impressive, and when paired with the confidence that Olise is currently playing with - there should be opportunities for the former Palace winger to find the target, as he did on two occasions when these sides met in the league phase of the Champions League.

Konrad Laimer is a player that I’ve backed regularly for fouls during this Champions League campaign and he rarely disappoints. The former midfielder now almost exclusively operates as a fullback, and is expected to fill in at left back here where he’ll have a tough test against the likes of Desire Doue and Achraf Hakimi.

Laimer isn’t a bad player, but if you were PSG that’s where you’d be looking to target Bayern as their pressure point. There’s so much attacking quality in this Bayern side that it’s easy to overlook the shortcomings of their backline - which was almost torn apart solely by Vinicius Jr and Mbappe in the second leg of their quarter final clash against Real Madrid.

Laimer has committed 15 fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this term (1.88 per 90), picking up four yellow cards in the process. I think he’ll struggle to manage Doue in a similar way to how he struggled with Vinicius Jr in the quarter final, Doue has won 14 fouls across his six starts in the Champions League this term (2.08 per 90), and when supported by Hakimi (0.95 fouls won per 90) - the pair should be able to draw at least two fouls from Konrad Laimer.

Ousmane Dembele wins fewer fouls than you may think (0.62 per 90), but this selection mainly focuses on the aggressive and occasionally clumsy nature of the Bayern Munich backline. Vincent Kompany’s side committed 22 fouls across the two legs of their quarter final tie against Real Madrid, with 12 of these fouls being committed by a member of their back four.

Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano both committed 2+ fouls each in the first leg of Bayern’s clash against Real Madrid - struggling to handle the threat of Vinicius Jr and Mbappe. I can see the centre back duo struggling a little again here with the rotations that PSG can put together with how fluid their front three is. Dembele doesn’t just stay in central areas either, he swaps with Doue and Kvaratskhelia - so there will be times where Dembele will be facing up against Laimer (1.88 fouls committed per 90).

This selection landed via Super Sub when the sides met earlier in the campaign. Dembele didn’t really get a chance to test the backline of Bayern as he went off injured after the first 25 minutes of the encounter. He should be able to have a proper run at Tah and Upamecano here - who combine to commit 3.48 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.

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Super Boost

Epic Boost: Manchester United to Score in the First Half 🚀 @ 2.00

Manchester United have seen a first half goal in 76% of their Premier League games this season, a metric that rises to 81% when looking at their games at Old Trafford.

There were three first half goals when these sides met earlier in the season, with Sesko getting on the scoresheet for the away side after Igor Thiago had fired Brentford into a two goal lead after just 20 minutes.

The previous head to head meeting between the sides prior to that 3-1 win for Brentford produced seven goals with three of these coming in the first half - and United contributed to this tally with a strike from Mason Mount.

Brentford have drawn each of their last five Premier League matches, two of these have been 0-0 draws, but the other three games saw the Bees concede a first half goal.

I like the look of this boost, United have generally been an entertaining watch this season having netted 31 goals across their 16 Premier League matches at Old Trafford (1.93 per game), so taking Carrick’s side for a first half goal at 2.0 is a boost I can get behind.

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