This selection has been boosted from 38/1, and was already 25/1 with some bookmakers. We're getting great value at 50/1, here's my thinking 👇

Kane & Dembele

Both Kane and Dembele found the back of the net in the first leg meeting between the sides last week and both crucially also managed a shot on target either side of half time. I’m backing both to do the same again this week in a clash that should be just as frantic and fast paced as the meeting at the Parc Des Princes.

Neither side showed any defensive discipline in the first leg so we can expect the frontlines to come out on top again. There were 13 combined shots on target in the nine-goal thriller last week, and the bookmakers expect at least 14 here (14+ SOT @ 1.72) as well as 33 match shots (33+ shots @ 1.83).

Kane is as short as 1.11 for a shot on target here and his record is impossible to ignore, he’s scored in each of his last six matches in the Champions League and has found the target 24 times across his 11 starts in the competition (2.28 per 90).

Dembele is priced at 1.30 for an effort on target, and has found the target twice in three of his last five matches in the Champions League. He carried PSG to the trophy last term and looks just as likely this time around to fire them to the final - averaging 1.60 shots on target per 90 across his nine appearances overall.

Cards

I’d expect an increase in the foul and card numbers here compared to the first leg given what is on the line for both sides and with the tie being so close despite nine goals last week. The referee for this game is Joao Pinheiro who has struggled to keep his cards in his pocket in the Champions League, handing out 28 cautions across his seven appointments in the competition (4.00 per game).

PSG committed 14 fouls and picked up one yellow card in the first leg, their numbers should naturally increase as the side with the advantage and now being the away side. PSG have picked up 11 yellow cards in the Champions League this season, but that number covers matches in the league phase were PSG were so dominant that some games never really materialised into a proper contest.

The same can be said for Bayern who have actually picked up 11 more cards than PSG in the Champions League, despite playing two fewer games. They picked up four cards on their trip to the Parc Des Princes in the league phase and should improve on the four fouls they committed in the first leg last week.

Corners

Both sides have shown that they can register decent corner counts in the Champions League this season with Bayern winning five in the first leg last week, and PSG racking up nine when they lost to Bayern in the league phase of the competition. PSG also scored from a corner last week, so it could be an avenue that both sides look to as they attempt to progress to the Champions League final.

Bayern are averaging 5.77 corners per game in the Champions League this season, winning 75 across their 13 matches in the competition. PSG are a bit further down the corner table, but still have a decent record having registered 82 corners across their 15 matches in the Champions League (5.47 per game).

Palace came away 3-1 winners in the first leg meeting, scoring after just one minute.

Shakhtar have only kept one clean sheet in their last five matches across all competitions, and have failed to win each of their last two away matches in the competition.

Crystal Palace have only lost one Conference League game at home this season.

The first leg meeting between these sides produced three goals as Braga came away 2-1 winners.

Freiburg have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of these games.

Braga have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five Europa League matches.

Aston Villa have drawn more fouls and cards than any other side in the Premier League this season.

Forest committed 20 fouls and picked up two cards on their last trip to Villa Park. They also committed 15 fouls and picked up 2+ cards when the sides last met in the Premier League.

Forest have collected 23 yellow cards in the Europa League this season.

Strasbourg have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, seeing 3+ goals in three of these games.

Strasbourg overturned a first leg deficit in the quarter final of the Conference League, scoring four goals in the home game to win the tie.

Rayo Vallecano have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five Conference League matches.