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Senegal

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France v Senegal Bet Builder 🇫🇷🇸🇳 @ 7.05

There’s an argument to suggest that Olise is France’s main man ahead of this World Cup with the form he showed during the 25/26 season for Bayern Munich.

Olise registered an incredible 53 goal contributions across 57 appearances for Bayern Munich and comes into this World Cup priced as the favourite by many bookmakers to win the Golden Ball, with France also backed to go all the way. 

Olise averaged just shy of 2.0 shots on target per 90 for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga last season, and found the target five times for France during qualifying across five starts (1.05 per 90). He also scored a hat-trick in his final warm-up game for France against Northern Ireland from four shots on target.

I expect Ndiaye to be a real outlet for Senegal here, which should put him in some promising situations to win fouls.

He’s enjoyed a strong season for Everton, winning 37 fouls across his 32 starts (1.20 per 90), which is a rate that I think will increase given how this game should pan out with France dominating and Senegal looking to take their chances in transition.

Ndiaye will be up against Lucas Hernandez (0.89 fouls per 90) and Desire Doue (1.59 fouls per 90) down his side of the pitch. He should be able to give Senegal some relief at times from what is expected to be consistent France pressure - he’s an excellent ball carrier, averaging 2.05 successful dribbles per 90 during qualifying for the African nation.

France could cover this line on their own, which is something they have done in 12 of their last 13 matches across all competitions - only failing to score twice in a surprise defeat to Ivory Coast in which they had 15 attempts with six finding the target.

France have also notably failed to keep any clean sheets across their last five matches, including clashes against Azerbaijan and Northern Ireland. There’s definitely an argument to suggest that France’s squad is a bit top-heavy and they will give away chances from the holes that are in the midfield and backline.

Senegal are quite an organised side, but can’t rely on keeping things low scoring here. They will have to be brave enough to take some risks in the final third themselves, as keeping a front four of Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Desire Doue and Ousmane Dembele quiet for 90 minutes is a tough assignment.

I touched on the fact that France’s squad is a bit top-heavy, and I think that will lead to an important role for Mike Maignan in goal. He enjoyed another strong season for Milan, making 2.95 saves per 90 with a save percentage of 75.5%, and kept three clean sheets across five matches during qualifying.

Maignan wasn’t really tested in that qualifying run with France taking on the likes of Iceland, Ukraine and Azerbaijan, but Senegal certainly have options who can cause problems - particularly in moments where France have settled possession and move up the pitch, exposing them to runners in behind.

Senegal’s front three is expected to be:

Nicolas Jackson - 1.88 shots on target per 90

Sadio Mane - 1.27 shots on target per 90

Iliman Ndiaye - 0.71 shots on target per 90

You also have players like Ismaila Sarr, who can come on when the game is stretched, with the latter stages of games being ideal for his style of play and tendency to strike against better sides for the underdog.

I do think Senegal can cause France the odd issue, maybe even get on the scoresheet, but I expect the European side to come away with all three points and a few goals.

There aren’t many sides in international football blessed with the quality that France have in the final third. Deschamps has got much better at getting these players in a coherent system over the last few years, and you can’t ignore their runs to back-to-back finals, which shows that they don’t mind the pressure of this stage.

Senegal haven’t had the most ideal pre-tournament preparation either, failing to beat either the USA or Saudi Arabia in their warm-up games. France’s quality should shine through.

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Tips Feed

Michael Olise - to have 1+ Shots On Target

5h ago

Iliman Ndiaye - to be Fouled 2+ Times

5h ago

Over 1.5 - Goals

5h ago

France Goalkeeper - to Make 2+ Saves

5h ago

France - to Win

5h ago

Desire Doue - to Score or Assist

5h ago

Lamine Camara - to be Shown a Card

5h ago

Sadio Mane - to have 1+ Shots On Target

5h ago

Dayot Upamecano - to be Fouled 1+ Times

5h ago