Both these teams came in as firm favourites for the group but a loss for either team will leave them in a perilous position. Milan sit in 4th place in Serie A right now, but come into this match off a huge 2-0 win over Juventus which meant they have now won 5 of their 6 home matches this season, only losing to in-form Napoli 2-1. Milan will feel like they should still be able to get out of this group as they have the advantage of having 2 home games left whereas Chelsea and Salzburg have only one. AC Milan’s biggest issue is injuries, they have 8 players out injured including Kjaer, Ibrahimovic and Saelemaekers.
Chelsea have quickly improved under Graham Potter, he has won his first 3 matches as Chelsea manager and they have won both their last 2 matches 3-0. Chelsea will be very confident coming into this match after winning the reverse fixture so comfortably just 6 days ago. Chelsea could also see the return of N’Golo Kante as he gets back to fitness from his injury; however, they will have to do without Fofana after he was injured in the reverse fixture.
AC Milan v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
Chelsea Double Chance
Graham Potter has made his mark quickly with this Chelsea squad and winning 3-0 in the last match between the teams will have him feeling he has the tactical edge in this clash. Chelsea were very good in that 3-0 win but what was most impressive is how they limited AC Milan to so few opportunities. Graham Potter has managed in Europe before with Ostersunds, his Ostersunds even beat Arsenal at the Emirates back in 2018, so he knows how to get a result away in Europe. Potter is rotating his squad a lot still, but his changes are always working. After Aubameyang had scored against Palace and then Milan, eyebrows were raised when he was dropped for Kai Havertz in their last match. However, this decision was proved correct when Havertz opened the scoring in that match.
Chelsea have won every match under Potter so far, performance levels have been very high and he has already turned them into a tough team to beat. They have conceded 1 goal in his first 3 matches and now kept 2 clean sheets in a row. Because of how difficult they are to beat, I expect Chelsea to take at least a draw from this match, however they will fancy themselves to go and pick up a very important 3 points.
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Prediction: Chelsea Double Chance
Thiago Silva to have 1+ Shot
Potter knows changing Chelsea’s style to the way he wants them to play will take time. Short-term he seems to have focused on using set-pieces to create shots and this was a very effective tactic in their last match against Milan. Chelsea had 11 shots in the reverse fixture and 6 of them were from set-pieces and they were all shots from defenders. Chalobah had 1 shot, Fofana had 2 shots with 1 on target and Thiago Silva had 3 shots with 2 on target. Thiago Silva was the target of Chelsea corners, often setting up with routines that gave Silva space for a free header. With this being an away performance, set pieces will be vital and Thiago Silva will be important from these positions again. Thiago Silva started both of Potter’s first 2 matches before being left out the squad against Wolves due to illness, however it is expected he will have recovered from this for this match and will return to the starting line-up.
Thiago Silva did also have a shot in his first match under Potter and is quickly becoming their go-to man from corners. At odds of over evens just for him to have a shot, this represents superb value, especially considering how he has played under Potter so far.
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Prediction: Thiago Silva to have 1+ Shot
Mason Mount to have 2+ Shots
Mason Mount is one of a number of players tipped to star for Chelsea under Graham Potter. He has had at least 2 shots in all 3 of Potter’s matches and has only failed to have 2 shots in a match twice out of 10 games he has started this season. Last match against Milan he found himself in 2 really good positions where he had shots so is clearly playing in a role that can see him get real chances in this match. Last season he averaged 2.44 shots per match for Chelsea and is one of the players who often has shots from free kicks. Mount plays as an inside forward, providing an attacking threat through the centre of the pitch, where Chelsea created 56% of their xG in their last match against Milan.
Mount has started every match under Potter so should start again here. He has plenty of shots and I think he will get in good positions to have at least 2 shots in this match.
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Prediction: Mason Mount to have 2+ Shots
Over 3.5 Cards
The referee for this match is Daniel Siebert. Over the last 2 seasons he has refereed 6 Champions League matches, averaging exactly 4 cards per match. In all competitions this season he has averaged 4.15 cards per match over 13 different matches.
Chelsea are the 4th most carded team in the Premier League so far this season and Milan are the 4th most carded team in Serie A. Teams are also carded against Milan more than any other team in Serie A. The last match between the two had 5 yellow cards and as this match has even more pressure behind the result, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are even more cards this time out. Milan’s match at weekend saw 5 cards and only one of their last 9 matches has not had over 4.5 cards. Both teams know if they lose this match, their chances of progression are much lower so at a packed San Siro the atmosphere will contribute to a high card count.
Both teams receive plenty of yellows, Milan draw lots of yellows and the referee knows where his yellow cards are. This match will likely have plenty of cards so I am backing over 3.5 cards in this match.
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Prediction: Over 3.5 Cards
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Predicted Line-ups
AC Milan predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Tatarusanu; Dest, Kalulu, Tomori, Hernandez; Bennacer, Tonali; Krunic, Diaz, Leao; Giroud
Chelsea predicted XI (3-4-3): Kepa; Chalobah, T Silva, Koulibaly; James, Loftus-Cheek, Kovacic, Chilwell; Sterling, Aubameyang, Mount
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How to watch AC Milan v Chelsea in the Champions League?
📅 When is AC Milan v Chelsea? / Tuesday, 11th October 2022, 8:00PM
🏟 Where is AC Milan v Chelsea? / San Siro (Milan)
📺 What TV channel is AC Milan v Chelsea on? / BT Sport 2
🟨 …And who is the referee for AC Milan v Chelsea? / D. Siebert 🇩🇪
