💎 Gem Bet: Kenedy to have 2+ Shots v Al-Hilal @ 1.83 (bet365)

Kenedy to attempt 2 or more shots in Friday morning’s final Group H fixture of the Club World Cup offers outstanding value at 1.83 with Bet365, a line that sharply contrasts with odds as short as 1.25 elsewhere. The disparity in pricing represents a serious misjudgment in probability. Bet365’s implied likelihood of just 54.6% undersells the Brazilian’s recent output and longer-term profile, with fair value much closer to an 80% probability based on statistical trends and competitor pricing.

Now on loan at Pachuca from Real Valladolid, the Brazilian winger — not to be confused with teammate John Kennedy — has quickly made his presence felt in this tournament. Despite entering the competition with just 10 minutes of game time all season, Kenedy has started both matches against Real Madrid and RB Salzburg and registered 3 and 2 shots respectively.

That output aligns well with his broader data profile from his most recent full season at Valladolid, where he averaged 3.21 shots per 90 and cleared this line in 10 of his 15 starts. Across his professional career, he maintains a solid 2.47 shots per 90, making the 2+ line not just realistic, but well within his typical match output when given minutes.

While Pachuca are already eliminated, the absence of pressure could allow for more attacking freedom, a scenario that suits Kenedy's direct playing style perfectly. Their opponents, Al Hilal, still have everything to play for but have looked defensively vulnerable, conceding a total of 31 shots across their two group matches (albeit against stronger opposition in Salzburg and Real Madrid). 

Even domestically, despite Pachuca’s disappointing 12th-place finish, they maintained a solid attacking output, averaging 13.79 shots per game on the road.

Looking at Al Hilal’s domestic numbers reinforces the opportunity here. Despite finishing second in the Saudi Pro League and ranking highly in Opta’s club coefficients, they still conceded an average of 9.42 shots per game away from home. This suggests that Kenedy should have ample opportunity to reach this modest two-shot threshold, particularly in a fixture likely to open up given both sides’ respective motivations.

Given Kenedy’s established shot volume, current tournament form, and Al Hilal’s defensive metrics, this market should be far shorter than the 1.83 currently available.