As reigning European champions, Spain welcome the Netherlands to their shores for the first time in 25 years. After a stalemate in the first leg (2-2), the hosts returning to home soil makes them favourite to take this tie and progress into the semi-finals.

Spain’s recent form underscores their status as one of Europe’s most formidable sides. They have won 14 of their last 15 international matches (D1), with a 97th-minute Brazil equaliser preventing this run extending to 15 victories from their last 16. Across those victories, their attacking and defensive balance has been outstanding – scoring 38 goals while conceding just nine. Their home record is even more imposing, having remained unbeaten on Spanish soil since September 2022 (W10, D1).

In contrast, the Netherlands have struggled for consistency, particularly away from home. While they finished second in their Nations League group, they managed just two wins – both coming on home turf. When facing stronger opposition on the road, their frailties have been exposed, winning just two of their last six away internationals (D2, L2). Looking further back to their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, their three away wins came against Gibraltar, Greece, and Republic of Ireland – far from elite opposition. A sobering 4-0 defeat to France exposed their limitations at the highest level and Spain’s quality could prove too much once again.

Some bookmakers assign a probability as high as 88.5% to this fixture featuring at least two goals, making it a compelling selection.

Not only did the reverse fixture showcase a flurry of goals, but the tactical dynamic also favours another high-scoring affair. The hosts must chase the game to overturn a two-goal deficit (having lost the first leg 3-1) and avoid relegation to Group B, and their attacking intent – combined with broader international goal trends – strongly supports this selection.

Looking at Belgium’s last 50 international matches, their games average 2.68 goals per game, with over 1.5 goals occurring in 34 of them (68%). However, this rate increases dramatically in home fixtures, where 88.9% (16 of their last 18) have featured at least two goals.

Ukraine’s matches follow a similar pattern. Across their last 50 internationals, games have averaged 2.6 goals per game, with 40 of them (80%) producing at least two goals. This consistency is even more pronounced in away fixtures, where 15 of their last 16 games have seen two or more goals.

With the reverse fixture ending in a 3-1 Ukraine victory, the historical precedent further strengthens this selection. Given both teams’ scoring trends and the tactical necessity for goals, another high-scoring contest appears highly probable.