After landing five straight Sunday doubles, we’re eyeing a sixth. This time built around two Premier League fixtures where both teams are expected to find the net. First, we head to the South Coast as Brighton host Champions League-chasing Newcastle, before turning to the evening clash in the capital where Chelsea welcome newly crowned champions Liverpool.

With both sides chasing European qualification, Newcastle eyeing a top five finish and Brighton hoping for at least a Conference League berth, an open, attacking encounter is on the cards. 

Brighton ended a five-game winless run last weekend with a thrilling comeback win at home, showcasing not only their offensive spark but also their continued defensive frailties. Not only do they hold the lowest positive goal difference (+1) among those in the top half, they’ve managed just seven clean sheets in total (21%), and only three at home (18%). Offensively, they remain strong and, as a result, BTTS has landed in 71% of their home games, a stat that can’t be ignored.

Newcastle, for their part, remain firmly in the Champions League hunt, but their away record isn't entirely convincing. While dominant at St James’ Park, their goal difference drops from +19 at home to just +2 on the road. Though they’ve kept five clean sheets away, those coming against sides with inferior home scoring averages to Brighton’s 1.53 goals per game: Leicester (0.65), West Ham (1.24), Ipswich (0.76), Manchester United (1.24), and Everton (1.29). The Magpies themselves have been shutout just three times this season, and with five of the last six meetings between these two featuring goals at both ends, BTTS is the angle.

A match that features the league’s most prolific attack and strongest defence might not scream BTTS at first - but context changes everything. Liverpool have already wrapped up the title, and there’s every reason to expect a drop in defensive intensity and even squad rotation, offering Chelsea an opening.

Liverpool have been relentless going forward, scoring in every away game this season at an average of 2.41 goals per match. Chelsea’s defensive record at home doesn’t suggest they’ll be the first to stop them either. Five teams have failed to score at Stamford Bridge this season, Everton (average 0.71 goals per away game), Tottenham (1.65), Leicester (0.94), Southampton (0.76), and Villa (1.35) - all considerably lower than Liverpool’s output. 

On the flip side, Chelsea have scored in 24 of their 25 home games this season, the only blank coming on the opening day of the season. With Champions League qualification still up for grabs, the Blues have everything to play for. While Liverpool’s defence has been outstanding, with the pressure off, tactical balance will likely shift towards a more open game.