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Aston Villa v Bologna 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Aston Villa v Bologna 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Monday 21 October, 20243 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Two of the early favourites to win the Europa League go head-to-head on Matchday 1 of the league phase.

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Aston Villa v Bologna Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Aston Villa v Bologna
  • Europa League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 4.45

Riccardo Orsolini to have 1+ Shots on Target

Orsolini is quite clearly the biggest threat that Bologna will have to offer here. The 28 year old has maintained a high level in Serie A for a few seasons, culminating in his best ever season for Bologna last year, as he registered 21 goal contributions across his 40 appearances in all competitions.

He had 75 shots across his 30 appearances in Serie A last season (3.58 per 90), with 28 of these attempts finding the target (1.34 per 90). He’s started this season with similar numbers, registering 12 shots across his four appearances (3.14 per 90) - with half of these efforts finding the target (1.57 per 90). This record has produced two goals already for Orsolini, one of which came last time out against Genoa.

Orsolini was also a shot threat for Bologna in the Champions League last season. He took 13 shots across his six appearances in the competition (3.60 per 90), with four of these attempts finding the target (1.11 per 90). One of these efforts on target was against Aston Villa in Bologna’s 2-0 defeat at Villa Park.

Jhon Lucumi to Commit 1+ Fouls

Lucumi was the subject of intense transfer speculation over the summer, with both Sunderland and Bournemouth linked with the Colombian centre back. His move to the Premier League never quite materialised and he’s in the limelight to commit a foul here.

Lucumi has committed five fouls across his four appearances in Serie A this season, only two of these appearances have been starts, taking his average to 1.96 fouls committed per 90.

I always like backing centre backs to commit a foul when they are up against Ollie Watkins. I played this exact same angle when Watkins was up against Burn and Schar earlier in the season, Watkins is not a traditional striker and his mobility causes less agile centre backs real problems. Both Burn and Schar committed at least one foul in that game.

Lucumi contested 12 duels and committed one foul when Bologna played Aston Villa in the Champions League last season, too.

Over 4.5 Aston Villa Corners

This is a must win game for Aston Villa, they’ve started really slowly domestically but this competition can offer them some relief. Villa are favourites to win the Europa League and a large amount of that pricing is down to Unai Emery’s unique ability to dominate this competition.

Aston Villa registered five corners when these sides met in the Champions League at Villa Park last season. Corners were pretty common for Unai Emery’s side when they played at home in the Champions League last term, they had at least three corners in each of their league phase matches at Villa Park, aside from their 1-0 win over Bayern Munich.

Villa are struggling to create and convert chances from open play at the moment, which may tempt Emery to use set pieces to his advantage. Villa scored 16 goals in the Premier League from set pieces last season and their only league goal so far this season also came from a set play.

Aston Villa Double Chance

Aston Villa have been poor in the early stages of the season, but as we saw with Man United and Tottenham in this competition last season - the Premier League is head and shoulders above the other domestic leagues at the moment, which makes these European matches more manageable for Villa.

They ran out 2-0 winners over Bologna when the sides met in the league phase of the Champions League last season and were the better side overall, I would stop short of calling it domination as Bologna had chances, but the quality that Villa have shone through.

Even though Villa’s start has been poor, especially from an attacking point of view, they have managed to draw their last three matches which gives some confidence to my selection here. Emery is a master when it comes to navigating the Europa League and I think he’ll be able to help Villa recover from their slow start to the campaign.

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Aston Villa v Bologna Best Longshot Bets
  • Aston Villa v Bologna
  • Europa League
  • 20:00
3 Selections

Morgan Rogers to Score or Assist

Morgan Rogers hasn’t been at his best in the early weeks of the season, but that criticism can be applied to the majority of the Villa squad at the moment. He was Villa’s top scorer in the Champions League last term, showing that he can compete at the level.

Rogers was Villa's best player when they took on Bologna in the league phase of Champions League last season. He registered an assist in the game, as well as having four shots and completing seven dribbles.

Villa are the favourites for this competition, so you would expect them to be pretty dominant in the majority of their games. This match in particular is crucial in the context of how they’ve started the season, and I’d back Villa’s most effective player in Europe last season to be a real danger again during this campaign.

Remo Freuler to be Shown a Card

Only Jhon Lucumi and Santiago Castro (8) picked up more cautions for Bologna last season than Remo Freuler (6). The central midfielder will have his work cut out here, against the side that won the most fouls in the Premier League last season - with midfield being a particular hotspot.

His direct opponent will be Morgan Rogers, who attempted 11 dribbles in this fixture last season. This is bound to test Freuler, who has committed five fouls across his four appearances in Serie A this season (1.29 per 90), receiving one yellow card across these games.

He’ll also have to contend with John McGinn, who is one of the most skilled players in all of Europe when it comes to winning fouls. McGinn has won eight fouls across his five appearances in the Premier League this season (1.75 per 90) and averaged 2.78 fouls won per 90 across his 34 appearances in the Premier League last term.

Aston Villa to have 5+ Shots on Target

Villa had 16 shots in this fixture last season. Six of those attempts found the target and I’d back a similar number of efforts from Villa here, as they attempt to force the issue and kickstart their season.

Villa have admittedly been dry in the final third up until this point, but the additions they added late on in the window should help to make them a more dynamic and dangerous side when the new signings bed in. Harvey Elliott is the standout, he had an excellent campaign for England U21 over the summer, and could nail down a starting spot in this side.

Villa’s two home games this season have seen them have three and four shots on target, they are much more of a threat at home than they are on the road. This was also true last season, Villa averaged just over 5.0 shots on target per game at Villa Park last season, this dipped to around 3.0 per game when looking at their away matches.

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📂 Aston Villa v Bologna Cheat Sheet

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📈 Aston Villa v Bologna Form & Tactics

Aston Villa have been a bit of a mess so far this season. The obvious criticism is the lack of goals that Villa are scoring, but the overall performances have been subpar and have led to Villa making their worst start to a season under Unai Emery.

This competition could act as salvation for Villa; we saw how effective it was for both Man United and Tottenham last season, as the pair struggled domestically. Villa have the perfect manager for this competition as well, Emery has won it on four occasions - three times with Sevilla and once with Villarreal.

In truth, the Premier League is head and shoulders above the other domestic leagues in Europe, and this gap is only widening with every passing season, so Villa do have a real quality advantage on most of the sides in the tournament.

I really like the Bologna project and think they’ve got a chance of going deep in the tournament. I’m not sure if they’ll have enough to win it, but their Coppa Italia success last season and the experience of Vincenzo Italiano in previously leading Fiorentina to the Conference League final, gives them a great chance.

They’ve made a black and white start to the season with two wins and two defeats from their opening four Serie A games. Those two defeats did come on the road against Milan and Roma, which are tough assignments.

When it comes to individual players, Bologna have a strong collection of players with experience that make up a solid spine. Jhon Lucumi, Lewis Ferguson, Riccardo Orsolini and Ciro Immobile are all players who can compete and excel at this level.


🏁 Ref Watch

Jesús Gil Manzano

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

23.17

3.83

0.17

0.22

Per game stats from Manzano's 18 career Europa League games.


📊 Aston Villa v Bologna Stats

  • Aston Villa have only scored two goals across their six matches in all competitions this season.

  • Aston Villa have drawn their last three matches.

  • Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has won this competition on four previous occasions.

  • Bologna qualified for the Europa League via their success in the Coppa Italia. 

  • Bologna were active during the transfer window with key additions including Jonathan Rowe and Ciro Immobile.

  • Bologna have lost both of their away matches so far this season.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Europa League Predictions for this week, on Andy's Bet Club.

Our Thursday offering includes Rangers v Genk Predictions, as well as Lille v Brann Betting Tips and Real Oviedo v Barcelona Betting Predictions. If you're eyeing up some accumulator action, we also have a Europa League Accumulator and Both Teams to Score Tips.

If you're after free bets, you can take a look at some of the best New Bookmaker Offers. We recommend the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer for new customers, as well as the SBK Sign Up Offer.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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