• Aston Villa have the biggest xG over performance in the league, with 16 points between their expected points tally and their current position.

• Chelsea have picked up nine red cards in the Premier League this season, equalling the record for the most ever with 10 games of the season remaining.

• Aston Villa have won each of the last two meetings between the sides.

• No side has scored more goals on the road in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (26).

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📂 Aston Villa v Chelsea Cheat Sheet

📈 Aston Villa v Chelsea Form & Stats

Villa have been outperforming their underlying data for some time.

I wouldn’t quite call Villa lucky, but I think their recent form is Unai Emery’s side returning to their baseline of performance. That being said, Villa are still in a strong spot to qualify for the Champions League, especially if they can collect all three points here and effectively make it a three-horse race between Villa, Liverpool and Manchester United.

I think there was a lot to like about the way that Liam Rosenior set up his Chelsea side for their trip to the Emirates over the weekend. For the first 25 minutes of the game, Chelsea looked really comfortable and were finding Cole Palmer in pockets of space - with Enzo Fernandez operating on the left causing Arsenal real issues. However, Arsenal grew into the game when Arteta worked out what was going on and instructed William Saliba and Gabriel to be more aggressive when pushing into those midfield areas.

The second half was classic Chelsea under this current model. Pedro Neto taking out Gabriel Martinelli when he wasn’t near the goal, while on a yellow card, is the perfect example of the petulance and ill discipline which defines this side. Chelsea constantly collapse in those environments, and will have to be cautious of that collapse again here, as a loss would deal real damage to their aspirations of a top four finish.

📔 Aston Villa v Chelsea Formation & Team News

Aston Villa will line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape with Unai Emery expected to continue with his current system despite a poor run of form. I actually think that Villa’s recent struggles can be partly attributed to the absence of Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans at the moment. Amadou Onana and Douglas Luiz are capable deputies, but I think it’s clear that Emery prefers Kamara and Tielemans in there as they are more polished on the ball.

Most sides in the Premier League are now quite direct, but Villa still look to play through the thirds with their wide attacking players usually coming in quite narrow to allow the full backs to maintain the width. Chelsea have struggled with this system in each of the last two meetings between the sides, which have both been won by Aston Villa.

Chelsea’s injury list is pretty long at the moment. Neto has been added to the players that are unavailable following his sending off against Arsenal, with the likes of Jamie Gittens, Estevao, Marc Cucurella and Levi Colwill all expected to be out for this clash. Romeo Lavia was back on the bench for Arsenal, which is a massive boost for Chelsea. They don’t have another player like Lavia in the squad, so his return is notable.

Rosenior is still experimenting with the best shape and system for his side, but one thing which does look to be clear is a freer role for Cole Palmer. Rosenior has been playing Fernandez on the left when Chelsea have the ball, which is an interesting tactical play - but it does allow Palmer to have more of the ball in those central areas where he is at his most dangerous.

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