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Aston Villa v Fulham 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Aston Villa v Fulham 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Thursday 1 May, 20253 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

Aston Villa welcome Fulham to Villa Park on Sunday, with Unai Emery’s side still looking for their first Premier League win of the season. 

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Aston Villa v Fulham Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Aston Villa v Fulham
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
4 Selections @ 3.40

Joachim Andersen to Commit 1+ Fouls

Fulham are committing more fouls than any other Premier League side so far this season (15.0 per game) and are facing up against an Aston Villa side that won more fouls than any other team in the Premier League last term (13.7 per game).

Fulham were forced into making 17 fouls in this fixture last season, and while Villa may have made a slow start to the campaign, winning fouls is still a strong part of their game. Andersen has committed six fouls across his five Premier League games this term (1.20 per 90). He’s committed at least one foul in three of these appearances, and will have a 1v1 battle with either Malen or Watkins here.

Andersen frequently follows strikers when they drop into pockets in the midfield, which is a common trait of Villa’s build up under Emery, with the wingers also tucking in quite narrow which could leave Andersen and Bassey outnumbered at times.

Ezri Konsa to be Fouled 1+ Times

Ezri Konsa has won four fouls across his four Premier League appearances this season (1.07 per 90), and should be in a tussle with Rodrigo Muniz here. The Fulham striker has committed nine fouls across his five Premier League appearances this season (2.55 per 90) and is regularly overly physical with opposition centre backs.

Konsa regularly won fouls for Aston Villa last season, he won 47 fouls across his 34 Premier League appearances (1.44 per 90), which is a record that put him in the 97th percentile when compared to other centre backs in this metric.

Konsa contested seven duels in this fixture last season, with Fulham committing 17 fouls on their visit to Villa Park. Raul Jimenez led the line on that day and committed two fouls.

Over 0.5 Fulham Goals

Fulham made a habit of playing very well in games against sides in the top half of the table last season, but would then struggle against the lower ranking sides in the Premier League.

Remarkably, Marco Silva’s side only kept five clean sheets in the Premier League last term, which meant that they were forced to score plenty of goals in order to remain competitive in games.

Fulham have scored in four of their five Premier League matches this season, the exception came in their trip to Stamford Bridge, where they had a goal harshly disallowed. They should be able to take advantage of the somber mood that is currently around Villa Park, which was evident in their nervy 1-0 win over Bologna.

Villa have managed to keep two clean sheets in the Premier League so far this season against Everton and Newcastle, but I’d expect Fulham to breach the Villa backline at least once with how they’ve started the season.

Aston Villa GK to Make 2+ Saves

Marco Bizot was forced into making seven saves in Villa’s 1-0 win over Bologna during the week. No part of Villa’s system is really working at the moment, and a lot of it is down to issues they’re having in build up, sides have clocked on to the narrow nature of Villa’s system when they have the ball, and have adjusted the manner of their press to catch out Unai Emery’s side.

This, combined with a lack of speed and flair in the final third, has seen Emi Martinez tested six times across his three Premier League matches (2.00 per game). He’s been forced into making 2+ saves in each of his last two matches against Everton and Sunderland, with the 33 year old called into action 100 times across his 37 appearances for Villa last season (2.82 per 90). 

Fulham forced Martinez into making three saves in this fixture last season and the Cottagers have forced the opposition keeper into making 2+ saves in three of their five Premier League games this term.

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Aston Villa v Fulham Best Longshot Bets
  • Aston Villa v Fulham
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
3 Selections @ 20.26

Alex Iwobi to Score or Assist

Iwobi has steadily improved his end product over the last few seasons in the Premier League, he registered 15 goal contributions for Fulham last season (nine goals, six assists), which was the joint most for the Cottagers alongside Raul Jimenez.

Iwobi is pivotal to Fulham’s actions in the final third and he’s started this season in a similar manner, with three goal contributions across his opening five matches. He was bright in this fixture last season in creating three chances and having two shots, one of which found the target.

Two of Iwobi’s goal contributions this season came against Brentford last time out in a man of the match performance, so he enters this game with some real confidence. Fulham can take the game to Villa here, they’re extremely vulnerable at the moment and still looked pretty sheepish in their 1-0 win over Bologna during the week.

Antonee Robinson to be Shown a Card

Only Sasa Lukic (12) picked up more yellow cards for Fulham than Antonee Robinson last season (8) with the left back slowly building back to fitness following an injury at the start of the season.

Robinson is one of the most forward thinking fullbacks in the league, but this can sometimes be to the detriment of his side, as he can be caught in possession high up the pitch. Few players are blessed with the speed of Robinson, which he often relies on to get back when having bombed forward.

Emery likes his wingers to tuck inside and play quite narrow, so Robinson’s main duels will be up against Matty Cash who has won five fouls across his five Premier League appearances this season (1.04 per 90). Robinson contested 12 duels in this fixture last season, committing one foul with Fulham committing 17 in total.

Donyell Malen to have 3+ Shots

Malen was preferred to Watkins for Villa during the week against Bologna and offered a fraction more leading the line with that extra bit of speed he has. There’s still a real problem for Villa in that area of the pitch with Watkins low on confidence, and the team as a whole only managing to score three goals across their seven matches in all competitions.

Malen came off the bench to have three shots in this fixture last season, with one of these attempts finding the target. Malen is one of Villa’s few real shot threats at the moment and I’d anticipate Emery giving him another start ahead of Watkins here, with Villa’s top scorer from last season struggling for form and confidence at the moment - he missed a penalty off the bench against Bologna last time out.

Malen had 15 shots and nine shots on target across just 298 minutes of Premier League football last season, with this record returning three goals. He adds speed to the Villa frontline which is something they’ve really lacked across the opening few games of the season.

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📂 Aston Villa v Fulham Cheat Sheet

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📈 Aston Villa v Fulham Form & Tactics

I watched Aston Villa in their Europa League opener against Bologna during the week, and still feel like there are issues with the side, despite Emery finally getting his first win of the season.

The performances of Morgan Rogers are the main concern to highlight. He’s been well below the level he regularly produced last season, and Emery may be tempted to drop him here with his performance against Bologna being his worst so far - Rogers was dispossessed six times and only had a 42% pass accuracy, by the end of the game he was cheered for completing a pass by the home fans, which shows the toxicity creeping into Villa Park off the back of these early poor performances.

Villa’s issues are not all down to Rogers, Emery has been quite stubborn with team selection and has not yet allowed his summer recruits a real chance to try and integrate into the team. Harvey Elliott deserves to get a start here, he could be the player to kickstart Villa’s season, following his impressive performances for England U21s over the summer.

Fulham are such a difficult side to beat, they’ve only lost one Premier League game this season and don’t often get blown away. They’ll be optimistic of their chances of taking something from Villa Park with the state of affairs surrounding Villa at the moment. 

However, Fulham will be looking to break a trend on Sunday afternoon, they haven’t won at the stadium in the Premier League since 2014. They enter this game on a run of three wins, with those victories coming against Leeds, Brentford and Cambridge.

Fulham’s strength is easily down the left hand side of the pitch. Alex Iwobi put in a man of the match performance last time out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come into a more central role to allow Kevin to make his Premier League debut. The Brazilian winger has looked bright in his brief cameos for the club so far.


🏁 Ref Watch

Andrew Madley

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

21.00

2.00

0.00

0.00

Per game stats from Madley's 2 games this season.


📊 Aston Villa v Fulham Key Stats

  • Aston Villa are yet to win a game in the Premier League this season.

  • Aston Villa have only scored three goals across their opening seven matches in all competitions.

  • Aston Villa have not lost at Villa Park to Fulham in the Premier League since 2014.

  • Marco Silva’s side have lost just one of their five Premier League matches this season.

  • Fulham have won four of their last five matches across all competitions.

  • Fulham have failed to score in just one of their seven matches across all competitions (v Chelsea).


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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