Mohamed Salah has been relentless this season, scoring 23 goals while leading the league in shot volume, averaging 3.76 shots per game. His attacking influence is undeniable, and against a Villa side that concedes 11.5 shots per game, he should have plenty of opportunities to test the keeper. In the reverse fixture, Liverpool recorded 15 shots, with Salah registering both a goal and an assist. Given his role as the primary attacking outlet, combined with Liverpool’s high shot volume, he seems likely to meet this threshold.

Ryan Gravenberch is Liverpool’s most frequently fouled player, drawing 1.4 fouls per game. His ability to drive forward with the ball and operate in tight midfield spaces naturally invites challenges from opponents. Aston Villa’s midfielders Onana, Tielemans, and McGinn are their biggest foulers, often committing tactical fouls to disrupt play and will be directly against Gravenberch. As a team, Villa average a high 11.76 fouls per game, making it likely that Gravenberch will be on the receiving end of at least one illegal challenge.

Liverpool have been one of the most aggressive attacking teams in the league, averaging 6.44 corners per game this season. Much of their attacking play comes down the wings through Salah and Diaz and as they attempt to move the ball inside this tends to result in a large volume of corners. Aston Villa also concede an average of 4.28 corners per game, which seems highly likely to increase given they are up against one of the best attacks in world football.

Aston Villa have averaged 4.2 shots on target per game this season, and they tend to generate a lot of chances with the amount of pace in their attack. Liverpool, while defensively solid, do still allow 3.36 shots on target per game, and Villa’s direct approach under Unai Emery should create enough openings to trouble Alisson more than usual. Their average seems especially likely to go up given that they are playing at Villa Park where they have been much more of an attacking threat this season.

Jota’s season has been disrupted by injuries, but when fit, he remains one of the most clinical forwards in the league. Despite limited game time, he has already registered 5 goals and 2 assists, boasting an impressive 0.91 goal involvements per 90 minutes—one of the highest in the Premier League. He looked sharp against Wolves and with his movement in the box and ability to link up with Liverpool’s attackers Jota is always a threat.

Trent Alexander-Arnold averages 1.33 shots per game. As Liverpool’s primary set-piece taker, he could hit the 2 shots mark just from free-kicks, especially as Aston Villa tend to concede a fair number of fouls in dangerous areas. Beyond set pieces, Trent plays extremely high up the pitch for a fullback, frequently drifting into a winger or midfielder-like role to deliver crosses or take long-range shots. Against a Villa side that may sit deep and defend compactly, Liverpool could be forced into shooting from distance—something Trent is more than capable of doing.

Liverpool’s attacking numbers make this a strong pick. They lead the league in shots on target, averaging 6.64 per game. Aston Villa, meanwhile, generally allow 4.2 shots on target per match, and given Liverpool’s attacking personnel, this number is very likely to increase. Liverpool came under heavy criticism for their lack of opportunities generated against Wolves and Everton after they had taken the lead and so they may look to be more ruthless this week and accumulate a larger volume of attempts on goal even if they are winning.

Liverpool already average 11.96 fouls per game, meaning they are just under this line as it is. More importantly, Aston Villa draw 13.20 fouls per match, one of the highest rates in the league. Their quick, intricate play in midfield and attack often forces opponents into late challenges, particularly with players like John McGinn, and Tielemans drawing contact frequently. Villa’s most fouled players will also be directly up against Liverpool’s biggest offenders- Mac Allister and Gravenberch adding to the likelihood of a high number of Liverpool fouls. With Liverpool’s aggressive pressing style and the likelihood of a high-intensity battle in midfield, it’s likely they exceed 12 fouls in this matchup.