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Liverpool v Aston Villa Bet Builder Tips, 20/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Liverpool v Aston Villa Bet Builder Tips, 20/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Thursday 30 October, 20255 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Liverpool welcome Aston Villa with Arne Slot hoping to end his sides’ barren run in recent matches, which has seen them lose six of their last seven matches across all competitions.

Aston Villa have only lost one of their last 10 matches across all competitions and will be optimistic of recording a first victory at Anfield since 2014.

View more Football Match Stats, including Liverpool v Aston Villa, ahead of kick-off.

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Liverpool v Aston Villa Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Liverpool v Aston Villa
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 3.45

Hugo Ekitike to have 1+ Shots on Target

Ekitike feels like Liverpool’s only reliable forward at the moment which feels pretty crazy to say, seeing as they spent upwards of £300 million during the summer on forwards. Alexander Isak clearly still needs time to settle, and Mohamed Salah is facing the toughest period of his Liverpool career, so Ekitike and Cody Gakpo have been the standout performers so far.

Ekitike has had 16 shots across his eight Premier League appearances this season (2.86 per 90), with four of those attempts finding the target (0.71 per 90). This shot volume is promising when backing Ekitike for a shot on target here. He needs to work a little on his accuracy, but this shot volume always gives a player a decent chance of finding the target. Ekitike’s shot volume sat around 4.0 per game when he was at Frankfurt, so he is capable of producing an even higher shot volume at Liverpool.

Ekitike had four shots in Liverpool’s 3-2 defeat to Brentford in the Premier League last time out and also recently scored against his former club, Frankfurt, in the Champions League. He’ll be looking to build on the three Premier League goals he’s scored already this season as he looks to cement a starting spot in this Liverpool side.

Matty Cash to Commit 1+ Fouls

Cash scored a brilliant goal against Manchester City last time out to earn Aston Villa all three points at Villa Park and truly put to bed their disastrous early-season form. He contested eight duels in the game and committed a foul, I think he’ll be just as involved here, lining up against Gakpo.

Gakpo has won 15 fouls across his nine Premier League appearances this season (1.91 per 90). He won 31 fouls across his 23 starts in the Premier League last season (1.44 per 90) and will be a real threat to Cash here, as one of Liverpool’s more potent attackers in the early weeks of the season.

Cash has committed eight fouls across his nine Premier League appearances this season (0.91 per 90), which is a total we can expect to rise here, given Cash is lining up against Gakpo, who has a solid record when it comes to winning fouls this season. Cash may also have to contest a few duels against Milos Kerkez, who likes to push forward on that side. The Hungarian full back is averaging 0.95 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Over 2.5 Goals

Liverpool’s last five matches across all competitions have produced 3+ goals. Usually, you would associate Liverpool with high-scoring games only if they’d managed to batter the opposition, but the Reds have only won one of these matches, which was their 5-1 win over Frankfurt in the Champions League.

The matches don’t get any easier for Arne Slot with back-to-back games against Real Madrid and Manchester City to follow this encounter. Aston Villa have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions and come into this game having won four of their last five matches, including their most recent assignment which was a 1-0 win over Manchester City.

The most recent meeting between the sides produced four goals, a 2-2 draw. Liverpool racked up an xG of 2.51 on that occasion, and they’ll need to do similar here if they want to take something from the game, seeing as their backline has only managed to keep two clean sheets across 14 matches in all competitions.

Over 4.5 Liverpool Corners

Liverpool have won 49 corners across their nine Premier League matches so far this season (5.44 per game). This metric rises slightly to 5.75 corners per game when looking at their matches at Anfield this term. Liverpool are still able to cause opposition sides problems despite their poor form, through individual player quality.

Aston Villa have struggled on the road throughout Unai Emery’s tenure at the club, and this is visible through the number of corners they’ve conceded away from home this season. Aston Villa are conceding 6.00 corners per game on the road in the Premier League, with only four sides currently conceding more.

It’s getting to a level of desperation for Liverpool, which should see them really push for a positive result here. I’d expect that motivation to show itself through their corner numbers, with Villa previously struggling to find a foothold in their away games.

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Liverpool v Aston Villa Best Longshot Bets
  • Liverpool v Aston Villa
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 20.81

Cody Gakpo to Score or Assist

Gakpo doesn’t always get the praise he deserves with the vast array of talent that exists in this Liverpool side, but he has been incredibly effective this season with five goal contributions across his nine Premier League appearances so far (three goals, two assists).

He’s recorded a further two goal contributions in the Champions League, taking his tally to seven across 13 appearances in all competitions. No Liverpool player has registered more goals and assists than Cody Gakpo in the Premier League this term, highlighting his importance in the side at the moment, with other attackers struggling to find form or adapt to the demands of the side.

Gakpo has registered four goal contributions across his last five appearances for Liverpool in all competitions, including a goal and an assist against Frankfurt in the Champions League. Gakpo registered 24 goal contributions across his 49 appearances in all competitions for Liverpool last season.

John McGinn to be Shown a Card

John McGinn has picked up one yellow card so far this season in the Premier League, which he received against Fulham back in September. He’s also picked up a caution in the Europa League this term, which came against Bologna and could have a tough evening here as he attempts to deal with the threats of Liverpool’s midfield.

McGinn picked up seven yellow cards across his 34 Premier League appearances last season. Only Morgan Rogers (10) picked up more cautions than the Aston Villa captain, who can also find himself in the book for dissent as well as his occasional poorly timed challenges. McGinn has committed 11 fouls across his nine Premier League appearances this season (1.38 per 90), so his foul numbers line up with his potential to receive a card here.

McGinn didn’t feature in this fixture last season, but did start the 2-2 draw between the sides at Villa Park. He committed one foul on that occasion, and I’d back him to go a step further here and receive a caution as Aston Villa’s second-most aggressive player, ranked by cards, last season.

Aston Villa Double Chance

It’s really hard to back Liverpool at the moment. They fell to another defeat during the week against Crystal Palace, exiting the EFL Cup. Arne Slot did rotate quite heavily for that game, but it was still another big blow to the confidence of Liverpool, who are entering a very challenging period of the campaign with games against Real Madrid and Manchester City to follow this encounter.

Aston Villa have well and truly recovered from their early-season slump to lose just one of their last 10 matches across all competitions. Their only defeat in this spell was in the Europa League against Go Ahead Eagles, which was quite unfortunate as Villa managed to register an xG of 2.82 in the game from 18 shots while the Dutch side scored with two of the three attempts they had on goal.

The most recent head-to-head meeting ended in a 2-2 draw as Unai Emery’s side held the Reds at Villa Park. They will sense the nerves surrounding Anfield and look to take the game to Liverpool, there's no better time for Villa to register their first victory at Anfield in the Premier League since 2014.

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📂 Liverpool v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet

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📈 Liverpool v Aston Villa Form & Tactics

Liverpool are a bit all over the place at the moment, which was obvious in their 3-0 defeat against Crystal Palace during the week in the EFL Cup. Slot did rotate the side quite heavily for this encounter, but it hasn’t helped the low confidence which currently surrounds the Liverpool camp. Worryingly, Liverpool have only kept two clean sheets across their 14 matches in all competitions this term. This record is not sustainable and will continue to lead to poor results until Slot addresses the core issues.

The problem that the Dutch manager has is that he may not be able to fix the issue with the players at his disposal. The likes of Jeremie Frimpong, Kerkez and Florian Wirtz have all shown that they need time to adapt to their new surroundings, and Liverpool don’t have ready-made players to fill in for them at the moment. The Reds don’t have the same issues in front of goal with their blank against Palace during the week, the first time they’ve failed to score in a game this season.

Aston Villa look to be building in the right direction after a really tough start to the season, which saw them go multiple games without even scoring a goal. It took a few X-rated rants from Unai Emery to summon a response from his side, but it has come, and this change has seen Villa lose just one of their last 10 matches across all competitions. Their 1-0 win over Manchester City last time out was their best victory so far and showed that they can challenge for European spots this term.

Emery will have one eye on Aston Villa’s clash with Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League during the week, with Villa needing all three points following their defeat against Go Ahead Eagles in the last round of matches.


📔 Liverpool v Aston Villa Formation & Team News

Arne Slot has been experimenting with formations in recent weeks as he attempts to find a solution to stop the rot. The most success he’s had with these experiments was with a 4-4-2 against Frankfurt in the Champions League, though the Bundesliga side were far too open at the back, and this structure may not be transferrable to a side that is more organised defensively.

The usual shape for Liverpool is a 4-2-3-1, but this often ends up with just two players at the base of the formation, with Frimpong/Conor Bradley and Kerkez being very forward-thinking. This has left Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk exposed at times, and Liverpool have been punished as a result.

Liverpool will be without Alisson for this game, so Giorgi Mamardashvilli will continue in goal. He’s been okay between the sticks so far, but no keeper can really offer what Alisson can, so it is a natural downgrade for the Reds. Isak and Curtis Jones are also doubts for this game and are joined by Frimpong and Ryan Gravenberch, who face late fitness tests to be involved here.

Aston Villa usually line up in a 4-2-2-2 under Unai Emery, with the wingers tucking in to act as number 10s and allow the full backs to offer width. Villa were close to their best in their 1-0 win over Manchester City last time out, particularly off the ball, effectively limiting the time and space that Manchester City had, leading to Pep Guardiola’s side only generating an xG of 1.18.

Harvey Elliott is ineligible to feature against his parent club. Aston Villa are also expected to be without Youri Tielemans and Emi Buendia for this clash.


📊 Liverpool v Aston Villa Key Stats

  • Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets across their 14 matches in all competitions this season.

  • Aston Villa have lost just one of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

  • Liverpool have lost six of their last seven matches across all competitions.


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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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