Athletic Bilbao v Man United

Manchester United head to the Basque Country to face an Athletic Club side that not only boast a perfect home record in Europe (W6), but are also chasing the fairytale of lifting the trophy in their own San Mamés backyard. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

⭐ Athletic Bilbao v Man United Best Bet

➡️ Each Team to have 3+ Shots on Target with Paddy Power @ 1.50

This fixture feels set up for an open first leg encounter with attacking football likely from both sides, driven by contrasting strengths and statistical trends in Europe.

Athletic Bilbao have been ruthless at San Mamés. Across all competitions, they’ve managed three or more shots on target in 23 of their 25 home matches this season, averaging six shots on target per game in European home fixtures too.

Manchester United have attempted three or more shots on target in each of their last nine away games, and in 23 of their 26 matches away from Old Trafford this season. Their European average on the road is a staggering 6.33 shots on target per game, while also conceding 4.17.

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👕 Athletic Bilbao v Man United Predicted XI

📂 Athletic Bilbao v Man United Cheat Sheet

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💻 Athletic Bilbao v Man United Form and Tactics

With the final of this season’s UEFA Europa League set to be held at their own San Mamés Stadium, Athletic Club stand on the brink of something historic - and only Manchester United stand in their way. Ernesto Valverde’s side have made their fortress count, boasting a 100% home record (W6) in Europe this season, conceding just two goals while scoring 14.

Tactically, Athletic Club are a side built from the back. Their defensive discipline is among the elite in this competition, conceding just 0.8 goals per game and keeping six clean sheets (2nd-best in both in the UEL). Their low goalkeeper saves count (1.9 saves per game) and 4th-best xG against (9.6) speaks to a structured and efficient defensive unit that gives little away.

Where they lack in prolonged possession or passing dominance, they make up for in direct attacking play and speed in transition. Valverde’s system favours quick breakaways down the flanks, evidenced by ranking 5th for crosses, with wide players offering width and penetration rather than overlapping full backs or patient build-up. Their attacks are often vertical and rapid, looking to catch defences out before they can reorganise - a style particularly dangerous at home with their passionate crowd behind them.

Manchester United’s Premier League woes are in stark contrast to their European campaign, where they remain unbeaten in 12 games (W7, D5) and have staged some remarkable comebacks, most notably their three-goal burst in extra time to knock out Lyon.

Statistically, United are one of the most complete attacking teams in this season’s competition. They boast the 2nd-best scoring rate (2.3 goals per game), underpinned by the highest xG total, highlighting the consistent quality of their chances. Their possession game (56.7%) and 2nd-best pass accuracy shows their commitment to controlled build-up, often moving through midfield with tempo before accelerating into final third entries.

United lead the UEL in corners won, and are top for touches in the opposition box, reflecting how frequently they get into dangerous areas. Their third-place rankings in both shots on target and big chances created only further proves their offensive efficiency. The reliance on wide play and structured overlapping runs creates relentless pressure, especially against teams like Athletic, who may prefer a compact central shape.

Defensively, Amorim’s United press high, ranking strongly in possession won in the final third, but make few interceptions or clearances, signalling a side that trusts its shape and pressing rather than reactive defending. Discipline could play a pivotal role in a tight semi-final, and United maintain an edge in this area with fewer fouls and cards than their Basque hosts.

Athletic Bilbao v Man United Ref Watch

• Referee - Espen Eskas

• Stats are per 90 and are taken from 2024/25 games in all competitions (11 total)

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.