ABC logo
Australian Open 2023 Tennis Betting Preview & Tips

Australian Open 2023 Tennis Betting Preview & Tips

Saturday 14 January, 20232 min read
Avatar

Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Last year’s Australian Open had a truly great final, Rafael Nadal producing an epic fightback to beat Daniil Medvedev.

It was the first time the men’s singles final had been won from two sets down since 1965.

Yet for all the classic elements of that contest, the 2022 tournament is surely destined to be forever remembered for what happened before it with the bookies’ favourite Novak Djokovic being detained by immigration officials upon his arrival in Australia, forced to spend the best part of a week confined in a hotel and then, after several court hearings, finally booted out of the country.

It all stemmed from his decision not to have the COVID-19 vaccine. Twelve months on, Djokovic is back – and surely determined to win and make some kind of point to those who criticised him so heavily during that shambolic week in January last.

He’s the odds-on favourite to win a 10th title at Melbourne Park – he already holds the record for most wins at this tournament. The Serb is certainly the right favourite. Having also been forced to miss the US Open, Djokovic ended last season strongly, capturing three titles, including the season-ending ATP Finals at which only the sport’s best compete.

And he’s begun 2023 in similar fashion, lifting the silverware in Adelaide. Djokovic has now won 23 of his last 24 matches. Sound familiar?

But is there any value in backing Djokovic at 5/6?

He was clearly bothered by a hamstring problem in Adelaide, an issue which reared its head again in practice in Melbourne a few days later.

In addition, he needed to save match point against Sebastian Korda in the Adelaide final, while the match he did lose during his impressive run of results was a big shock, defeat coming at the hands of teenager Holger Rune in the Paris Masters final. Losses can come out of the blue.

So despite those fine win numbers, there are chinks in the armour – enough to make odds-on quotes unappealing.
So, who to back to Melbourne this year?

Australian Open 2023

Australian Open 2023 Predictions & Best Bets

We like to provide something for everyone in terms of price and so for a short-odds selection, we’ll look at the women’s singles draw. Iga Swiatek will have her backers to win the title at a similar price to this – she was clearly the best player in the world last season, winning both the French Open and the US Open. But the world number one suffered a miserable defeat to Jessica Pegula at the United Cup last week, leaving the court in tears and then withdrawing from her next tournament with a shoulder injury. That may well be a precaution – such withdrawals are common in the week prior to a major tournament like this one – but it’s a worry for punters. Instead, Garcia looks worth backing. She could go all the way but a safer bet for her to reach the semis. There’s an argument to suggest the French star was actually the best player in the final few months of last season. She won the big US Open warm-up tournament in Cincinnati before reaching the last four in New York and then completed the season with victory at the WTA Finals, a field which included Swiatek and all the other principals. Garcia looks in a very winnable section of the draw – Daria Kasatkina, Veronika Kudermetova and Anett Kontaveit are the other top-16 seeds in it – and gets the vote.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

🎾
Caroline Garcia to Win Quarter 3
Load bet @ 2.88 on Paddy Power
18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.
If you are a big believer in backing players riding the crest of a wave, then Fritz is certainly your man. He enjoyed an excellent 2022 season, finishing in the top 10 for the first time. It included a maiden Masters 1000 title at Indian Wells – like the Australian Open, played on a hardcourt – and also an appearance at the prestigious ATP Finals, for which only the world’s best players qualify. He made the last four at that event, losing only to Djokovic in a tight match. His serve is one of the best around and the conditions at Melbourne Park should help his key shot. The Greenset courts, used for the first time in 2020, saw the surface speed increase, while the light Dunlop balls should aid him too. Aussie John Millman certainly thinks so. Upon getting hold of some of the balls to practise with last month, the tour journeyman immediately picked out Fritz as a player who would enjoy using them (along with Nick Kyrgios and Hubert Hurkacz). That was certainly the case at the recent United Cup tournament, one in which Fritz held serve in 52 of his 54 service games as he won four of his five matches and helped USA win the trophy. The presence of Djokovic in his half of the draw is the thorny issue but if the Serb is indeed not 100% physically, Fritz looks very well placed to take advantage.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

🏆
Taylor Fritz to Win the Australian Open 2023
Load bet @ 19.0 on Paddy Power
18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.
For a bigger price, let’s turn to the other side of the draw – one featuring Medvedev and Nadal – and back Briton Norrie. If Fritz has made a strong start to 2023, then Norrie has been even better. He went 3-0 in that United Cup event with Nadal among those beaten. Norrie then hopped over to New Zealand and, at time of writing, is about to play in the Auckland final. Perhaps he’s overplayed given the task which lies ahead over the next two weeks but a wild card first up should help ease him into the tournament and he certainly has the form to challenge the best. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the main threat in his quarter but Norrie won their only previous hardcourt meeting. Last year, Norrie made the semis at Wimbledon and if he goes one step further here, he’ll reward his each-way backers. It looks like a value bet.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

🏆
Cameron Norrie to Win the Australian Open 2023 (E/W)
Load bet @ 67.0 on Paddy Power
18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.

👉🏼 Get your money back if either of these bets lose

Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place up to £30 on the 15/8 Australian Open Bet. Here are the possible outcomes:

✅
You win £86 in cash if it wins
🔄
Or you get your £30 stake back as cash

18+ please gamble responsibly. All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.