France have suffered only two defeats in their last 12 internationals and come into this encounter following consecutive victories.

Les Bleus have won their last four matches against Belgium, but importantly two of these matches have come in the last four months. France beat Belgium 1-0 in Euro 2024 during the summer and followed that up with a 2-0 success over Domenico Tedesco’s side last month in the Nations League. All of these have been competitive fixtures.

Belgium are likely to find the going tough offensively without two key players in the form of Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, and they only managed to come back from 2-0 down against Italy on Thursday when their opponents had two players sent off.

The home side’s form has been patchy in any case. Belgium have only won two of seven and four of 11. Those victories have come against Montenegro, Luxembourg, Romania and Israel, so not a team of France’s class.

The Barcelona defender has picked up 0.95 fouls per 90 in the Nations League in this edition, having played 193 minutes across three matches to date.

Kounde will come up against Jeremy Doku, who is a machine when it comes to winning fouls. The Belgium winger has picked up fouls at a rate of 3.7 per 90 in his Nations League outings in this edition so far. Only two players have been fouled more frequently in the whole of the Nations League than the Manchester City star.

Kounde has been the starting right back for France in each of their last two matches against Belgium, and has committed exactly two fouls in each of those games. Doku was his direct opponent in each of those two encounters.

Kounde has committed two fouls exactly in three of his last five starts for France.

Across their last five matches, Belgium are averaging 5.17 shots on target. Belgium have had at least four shots on target in each of their last three Nations League fixtures.

The home side have seen at least two shots saved in each of those games, with four stopped in their previous match against France. Les Bleus’ goalkeeper Mike Maignan is, therefore, likely to be asked to do some significant work.

Maignan has a save percentage of 63.6% in the Nations League. This means that if Belgium hit their average of five shots and he maintains his current rate – which is well below his career 75.1% in league football – he would easily hit the two-save mark.

France have given up an average of 3.67 shots on target per 90 in the Nations League, with this figure dragged down significantly by their win over Israel at the weekend, in which their opponents mustered only one shot.

Tielemans ranks fourth among Belgium’s players in terms of shots in the Nations League with five across his three appearances. This works out at exactly 2.0 per 90 minutes.

The Aston Villa player has had at least one shot in seven of his last nine competitive international starts that statistics are available for. He has had at least one shot in six of his last seven, although the one exception was the previous meeting Belgium had with France.

Also getting away a significant number of shots at club level, with at least one in three of his last five for the Villans. Tielemans will carry more offensive responsibilities with Belgium, particularly with their two key offensive aces missing out.

France have an excellent head-to-head record against Belgium, having won each of the last four encounters against their neighbours. Not only have these matches been in competition, they are also all relatively recent, with the most distant of these being the World Cup semi-final of 2018. Two of these games, meanwhile, have come in 2024.

Belgium’s form has fallen off significantly in recent months. They have lost three of their last seven matches with their only two wins coming against Romania and Israel in that period.

With Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku missing, Belgium are without players of significant international experience. While the likes of Jeremy Doku, Lois Openda and Johan Bakayoko have shown potential at club level, they are yet to replicate it on the international stage.

Since World Cup 2022, France have won four and drawn one of their competitive away matches. The exception was a 2-2 draw with Greece when Euro 2024 qualification was already assured.

Doku sits joint-third among all players in the Nations League when it comes to the volume of fouls he has picked up with 10. This equates to a massive 3.7 per 90 minutes.

The Manchester City star is a fearless ball carrier and is willing to dribble at opponents at great speed, which makes him a magnet to fouls as he can punish even the slightest defensive mistake.

He has been fouled at least three times in each of his last five international starts with Belgium, which include two fixtures against France. In these games, he has picked up a total of eight fouls, including three the last time he faced Les Bleus.

Doku will come up against the same head-to-head opponent as he did in those matches, Barcelona right back Jules Kounde.

Doku has a tendency to draw many more fouls with the national team than his club side. He has only drawn eight fouls with City this season in ten matches across all competitions but has 10 with Belgium in just three games.

Barcola came off the bench to score France’s fourth against Israel on Thursday, and virtually guaranteed himself a start in this game after adding some life to an otherwise lacklustre France display.

The PSG attacker has had a shot on target in each of France’s three Nations League matches, despite twice coming off the bench for Didier Deschamps’ side. On top of this, he has two goals to his name.

Barcola leads France in the Nations League in terms of shots per 90 (4.67) and shots on target per 90 (2.0). He is marginally ahead of the absent Kylian Mbappe in both of those categories.

He has had at least one shot on target in three of his last four matches for club and country.

France will expect to be proactive offensively during this game and should muster at least four shots on target.

Didier Deschamps’ side were criticised for their lack of attacking quality against Israel on Thursday, yet they still managed five shots on target in that game, aided by the strength of their bench, which allowed them to bring energy to the team in the closing stages.

Les Bleus have had 4.5 shots on target per 90 in their last five matches but over the course of 2024 they have posted a sizeable shot count, but have been let down by a lack of accuracy in their finishing.

At Euro 2024, for example, they had 95 shots in six games but only 24.2% hit the target. This was well below the 38.9% accuracy they managed in qualifying, and if they can rediscover that, Deschamps’ side should have no issues reaching four shots on target – as they did in all their Euro 2024 qualifying games.