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Birmingham v Wrexham
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Kick Off: Monday 16th September at 20:00
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Competition: League One
The “Hollywood derby” as Birmingham owned by Tom Wagner and NFL star Tom Brady take on Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, the joint owners of Wrexham.
It’s a massive game for League One and it’s a sell-out of just under 30,000 as two of the promotion favorites go head-to-head. The focus will be on this game on Monday night given that Wrexham have a growing worldwide fan base due to their owners, and the Blues have smashed the League One transfer record by signing Jay Stansfield for £15m plus add-ons.
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Birmingham v Wrexham Best Bets
The Blues have had a fortnight off due to international call-ups, but this may not be an advantage with players having to travel and play up to 180 minutes over a small period of time. Wrexham have played twice over the same period. Phil Parkinson made 11 changes from last weekend’s victory over Shrewsbury for Wrexham’s Bristol Street Motors Trophy clash on Tuesday evening.
All the Blues’ games have seen both teams finding the net and I would not be surprised to see this follow. Wrexham have averaged 4.80 shots on target this season with the Blues hitting 5.0. The Blues have tried to dominate games and keep the ball away from the opposition but that is not working, and they have had to rely on their players creating moments in the game to pick up points. Wrexham were obviously strong last season as they gained promotion from League Two, but their away record was inconsistent with W8-D5-L7 conceding an average of 1.25 goals with just three clean sheets against the top half on the road and five overall. Last term against the top five on the road, Wrexham had a record of W0-D2-L2.
Despite the Blues spending big this summer, they have not really got going this season and it might take a few weeks for them to hit their stride. With the number of new players and a new manager maybe we shouldn’t be surprised to see Birmingham take a little time to settle. Wrexham look a much more settled side, and they would be happy with a point here. It’s a little early in the season to talk about a six-pointer, but a victory here for either side could be huge.
I am going to take Wrexham not to lose the game at 1.91 with Paddy Power . They went to Bolton and restricted the hosts to just 0.60 xG and I think they can do a job on the Blues here. If we believe that Wrexham can get on the scoresheet, then with their tight defence they can restrict the hosts to a low number of goalscoring opportunities.
📂 Birmingham v Wrexham Cheat Sheet
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📊 Birmingham Form and Stats
The Blues continue to look strong in League One without looking exceptional. They currently sit 4th and three points behind leaders Wrexham, who have played a game more than the Blues. It was a disappointing start to the season as they only managed a home draw with Reading. The game was tight with the Blues narrowly winning the non-penalty xG count, 0.53-0.35.
They have now won three games on the spin at Wycombe and Leyton Orient and then a home win over Wigan. Yet, none of these wins have been that convincing with the Blues winning the total xG battle 2.56-2.0 and the shot count 32-24. Excluding Reading, these sides sit within the bottom nine and have all scored against Birmingham this season.
I have Birmingham sitting in 22nd place for non-penalty xG ratio. Their average xG of just 0.79 per match sees them sit below mid table, but their defensive output has been robust with just two clubs having a lower xGA. Their shots against metrics are also strong, sitting 3rd for shots on target conceded and 2nd for the fewest shots in the box conceded.
The Blues look solid and well organised with only Peterborough having a higher turnover of the ball than the Midlands outfit.
📊 Wrexham Form and Stats
Wrexham have taken to life in League One well with a return of W4-D1-L0. Their only dropped points were at Bolton and the only goals conceded came on the opening day 3-2 win over Wycombe. It’s now 361 minutes since they last conceded in a League One match.
The Red Dragons sit 3rd for xPTS, although they have played a game more than most of the other clubs in League One, but they sit 13th for non-penalty xG ratio and 7th for shots in the box ratio. The 1.16 xG average is the 3rd best in the division, but their ratio is held back due to the xGA of 0.78 which sits them 13th. In total they have conceded just two goals this season but have a total xGA of 3.55. On the road they are yet to concede with an xGA of 1.4 conceding 16 shots and five shots on target. I am not sure that they can continue to give up chances and not concede.
⚔️ Birmingham v Wrexham Head-to-Head
Birmingham and Wrexham last played each other in 2006, with the Blues winning 4-1 in the second round of the then named, Carling Cup. The game went to extra time after ending 1-1, with the Blues scoring three unanswered goals in the additional 30 minutes. The goalscorers that night included Nicklas Bendtner and Gary McSheffrey.
These two sides had previously played each other in the FA Cup in 1997 where Wrexham ended up progressing to the next round by winning 3-1. The sides have only faced each other nine times, the first meeting was back in 1928. Five of their meetings have been in cup competitions, with just four league games of which Birmingham have had the upper hand with W2-D1-L1. Overall, the record for the Blues is W5-D2-L2.
It has been a fixture that has been goal-heavy with an average of 4.0 goals per game. The most recent four games have all seen both teams to score with three of the four having at least three goals.
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