Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle

Newcastle will be seeking revenge on Tuesday night after Dortmund brought the Magpies’ momentum to a grinding halt with defeat two weeks ago, leaving Group F with it all to play for after reaching the halfway stage. 

Their matchup two weeks ago marked Dortmund’s first Champions League win of the season, nudging them into second place in the group. They are two points behind leaders PSG and above Newcastle courtesy of a superior head-to-head record, not a bad place to be after only scoring one goal in the competition.

Some egos will have definitely been bruised at the weekend’s thumping from Der Klassiker, spoiling their unbeaten league start, but they still pose a threat.

More officiating controversy became the star of the show again this weekend in the Premier League during Newcastle’s clash against Arsenal. While steam continues to pour out of the Gooners’ ears, Newcastle enjoyed a brilliant week with wins over Arsenal and Manchester United in the Carabao Cup. Eddie Howe will be hoping to extend this winning run by ending a 20-year wait for an away win in the Champions League – let’s just hope there’s no more four-minute VAR checks in this one. 

This feature will break down our Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle Cheat Sheet, highlighting any key markets where we see great value in to help craft your bet builders – small and big odds! Let’s jump right into the breakdown.

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Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle Cheat Sheet

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

You can find Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.

Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…

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🟡 Borussia Dortmund stats: Goals still alluding the German Giants

Dortmund will be hoping to mark their milestone of 150 Champions League appearances with a home victory here, becoming just the second Bundesliga side to achieve this after Bayern Munich. 

Speaking of Bayern, Edin Terzic will be emphasising to his side to move on from their pitiful defeat in the latest edition of Der Klassiker, in which Harry Kane inspired the Bavarians to an impressive 4-0 victory, smashing more Bundesliga scoring records after only 10 games. Dortmund’s attacking presence fell away from them once more after only registering one shot on target in Saturday’s clash, scoring zero goals in this fixture for the first time in their last eight meetings.

Despite their unbeaten record before last weekend’s game, Dortmund have scored 20 goals in 10 games which would often be a respectable effort, but this is 5 goals less than any of the other top five Bundesliga sides, and a staggering 18 fewer goals than Bayern. This partnered with their difficulties of finding European goals, scoring only one in three games, perhaps there are some underlying worries here.

There were no additions to the Dortmund injury list over the weekend which may be the only positive to take away from that game. Emre Can continues to struggle with a hip injury he picked up in this fixture two weeks ago, with Mateu Morey and Julian Duranville both still covering from their respective knocks. Practically a full squad is available for selection on Tuesday night.

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⚫ Newcastle stats: The Magpies eyeing 3 points after recent form

After a slight hiccup against Wolves following their defeat to Tuesday’s hosts a few weeks ago, the Magpies have won their last two against Manchester United and Arsenal, following really impressive displays. 

Newcastle dominated at Old Trafford, making a fool of Erik ten Hag’s side in a 3-0 victory, putting United’s hopes of retaining the Carabao Cup in disarray. Aside from all the controversy in their weekend victory over Arsenal, Newcastle were a persistent threat for the whole 90 minutes and managed to keep Mikel Arteta’s side very quiet… until the post-match interviews at least.

Newcastle have won eight of their last 12 fixtures across all competitions, building up crucial momentum going into such a highly contested European fixture. After struggling at St James Park against the German giants’ defence fortress, Eddie Howe’s side needs to break through the Dortmund wall, both a physical and psychological challenge at the Signal Iduna Park.

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🎯 Borussia Dortmund offensive stats: Corners to rain down in Germany

Dortmund haven’t looked overly convincing in their efforts at goal this season, domestically and in Europe, and coming up against the 5th best defence in the Premier League will once again prove a challenge. A clever counter-attack in the dying moments of the first half was all that separated these two last time around so goals could be sparse again. 

A big part of Dortmund’s attacking presence is through their set pieces and their love to swing in crosses from the corner flags, especially on European nights. The German giants registered seven corners in their outings against AC Milan and PSG and nine corners against Newcastle two weeks ago. Partnered with an average of 5.00 corners per 90 in the Bundesliga, corner markets could provide good value here. 

Newcastle took a whopping 11 corners in the reverse fixture but have struggled to continue that run of high corner count after registering two corners against Man Utd and zero against Arsenal. Newcastle have taken the 4th least amount of corners in the Premier League this season (47), conceding an average of 5.27 corners per 90 and faced 11 corners at the weekend against Arsenal. We suggest two angles for this market, a Dortmund corner match bet priced at 1.91 or Dortmund to take 5 corners priced at 1.57.

If you want to target player markets, Donyell Malen has shown attacking promise this season, racking up 3 goals in the Bundesliga and boasting the best shot on target per 90 ratio in the squad with 1.55. The Dutchman has taken the most shots out of any member of the Dortmund squad this season (25), nine more than second-place Julian Brandt, averaging 3.23 shots on goal per 90. He was substituted after only an hour in Saturday’s defeat, not injury-related, and he could be at risk of rotation, so we would suggest waiting for his confirmation in the lineup before adding his selections to your bet builders. 

Prediction: Over 4.5 Borussia Dortmund corners @ 1.57

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund corner match bet @ 1.91

Prediction: Donyell Malen to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.40

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🎯 Newcastle offensive stats: English attacking duo to cause scares

Alexander Isak has yet to make a return to the squad after he was forced off in the return fixture with an injury which has opened the space for Callum Wilson to grant him his first Champions League start, after two bench cameos across the previous fixtures. 

Callum Wilson is Newcastle’s current top Premier League goalscorer after overtaking his Swedish teammate following a brace against Wolves two weeks ago which brought his tally up to seven for the season. Wilson has racked up a respectable 2.23 shots on target per 90 this season, meaning 63.2% of all his efforts at goal hit the target – the best averages in the squad. 

Keen to impress and fighting for his place as the starting striker, we expect Wilson to try to create some more attacking opportunities to threaten that strong Dortmund backline. Wilson to have 1+ shots on target priced at 1.33 seems good value, and considering he averages 3.53 shots per 90, perhaps for Wilson to take two shots could prove a worthy safe alternative angle. 

Anthony Gordon became Newcastle’s hero in their 1-0 victory over Arsenal, picking up his 4th goal this season. After struggling initially in his move to Tyneside, everything has come together for the 22-year-old. He has registered the 3rd highest xG per 90 in the Newcastle side (x0.35), behind both Isak and Wilson and registered 1.02 shots on target per 90 from 2.28 efforts. A goal at the weekend will no doubt boost his confidence and he could prove a real handful on Tuesday.

Prediction: Callum Wilson to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.33

Prediction: Anthony Gordon to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.73

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🛑 Borussia Dortmund defensive stats: Can Bensebaini keep his cool? 

Ramy Bensebaini has been Dortmund’s key fouler this season picking up four yellows in his eight Bundesliga appearances. His absence from the the side in Saturday’s 4-0 defeat to Bayern is likely to see him recalled to the starting eleven for this Champions League fixture and with much at stake here, his temper could get the better of him once again. 

Bensebaini committed two fouls in the return fixture two weeks ago with Miguel Almiron causing big headaches for the Algerian despite the concrete defence the German giants showed that evening. Having made 12 fouls in 8 league appearances, accumulating an average of 1.85 per 90, there is a likelihood that this trend will continue. Bensebaini to commit 1+ fouls at 1.22 looks a solid selection for this fixture, but a punt of 1.83 for the Algerian to be booked could be a great pick for those who love the higher odds bet builders. 

Newcastle have scored 27 Premier League goals this season, second only to Manchester City with 28 after their 6-1 demolition of Bournemouth at the weekend, and have been causing danger to every team they face. Dortmund have had some defensive struggles this year, conceding 1.50 goals per game and the Magpies could exploit this after strong performances of late. 

Dortmund concede an average of 4.60 shots on target per game, forcing Gregor Kobel into making 3.10 saves per game. Against a side that’s averaging 6.36 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League and 4.00 in the Champions League, Kobel could be subject to more tests on Tuesday. The Dortmund goalkeeper to make three saves is priced at 1.62. 

Prediction: Ramy Bensebaini to commit 1+ foul @ 1.22

Prediction: Ramy Bensebaini to be shown a card @ 1.83

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund GK to make 3+ saves @1.62

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🛑 Newcastle defensive stats: A drama-packed show in store on Tuesday

The Magpies have had an affinity for collecting yellow cards this season as they currently sit in second for the most bookings in the Premier League with 32, three off of the top spot. This tendency has leaked into their Champions League encounters totalling five cards in their three outings – a slightly better ratio than their domestic matchups. 

These 32 yellow cards have been distributed amongst an impressive 15 squad members with Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimaraes the key offenders with six and five bookings respectively. It seems that Newcastle fixtures attract yellow cards as their opponents average 2.82 bookings per 90 minutes which is just shy of the Magpie average of 2.92. With revenge in their sights, and Guimaraes testing how far his luck strings with avoiding red card offences, this game could see a handful of bookings. 

The two approaches to these markets would be for Newcastle to receive over 2 bookings priced at 1.60 or a total card market. For this match to see 6 cards priced at 1.95 does seem good value as Dortmund average 2.00 cards per 90 in the Bundesliga and picked up 7 yellows in this Champions League campaign.

Dan Burn was substituted because of an injury at the weekend, his return for this fixture has not been confirmed yet, and the absence of Sandro Tonali may also prove a big challenge on a stage like this. With the defence lineup slightly compromised, a Jamal Lascelles foul could be a good value pick. The skipper has picked up 1.92 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, the second-highest average in the Newcastle side. And despite committing nine fewer fouls than top fouler Bruno Guimaraes, Lascelles’ per 90 average isn’t too far behind the Brazilian’s 2.13. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 Newcastle cards @ 1.60

Prediction: Over 5.5 total cards @ 1.95

Prediction: Jamal Lascelles to commit 1+ foul @ 1.40

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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