After a really poor spell for Forest, there are signs of improvement recently, especially in their 0-0 draw against Arsenal. The team was defensively resilient and dogged, and this may give them a massive boost of confidence heading into this one. 

It’s a high stakes game for Forest, and this may lead to less Europa League rotation than usual, potentially giving them a stronger starting XI. Ultimately, Forest have only been beaten once in the Europa League, a home fixture against FC Midtjylland. 

In away Europa League fixtures against Real Betis, Sturm Graz, and FC Utrecht, they have only conceded two goals. Crucially, opposition teams have been finding it hard to get joy in attacking areas, and that’s testament to the defensive setup of the team. 

Admittedly, Braga have performed fairly well in the Europa League, but they’ve faced opposition with an average position in the league of 26th out of 36 teams, one could argue that’s been a pretty favourable run. With Forest’s Premier League quality, they are likely to provide a stiffer test than most of those teams.

I would argue this is a more discretional play, rather than based on cold hard data. As previously alluded to, there should be an onus on Forest to be positive and progressive in their approach here, six points from their remaining two games would give them a fantastic chance of progressing.

Forest are averaging exactly four corners across their Premier League and Europa League away games, so we’re talking pretty small margins without much leeway. However, in all their Europa League away games they’ve been the more progressive side with and without possession, taking the game to the opposition and trying to get on the front foot. 

Braga are 5th in the Liga Portugal with a fairly average points total of 18, and sometimes that can be ambiguous to measure how that stands up against a Premier League side in terms of quality. At a minimum, I would expect Forest to be territorially competitive and have their spells of dominance on the ball, even if they soak up plenty of pressure early doors.

The Forest wide man has begun to cement a regular starting place in the team under Sean Dyche, and has good prospects of starting this important encounter. 

Hudson-Odoi has been trigger happy in the Europa League, with 3+ shots landing in all five of his Europa League appearances, the general step down in level from the Premier League is likely contributing towards these increased figures. 

He is currently averaging 3.40 shots per 90 in the Europa League, and 1.56 shots per 90 in the Premier League. Accounting for these Europa League numbers, I think 1.62 is a very generous price here, and certainly presents more value than some of his team mates. 

While Sean Dyche is often very pragmatic in his approach, Forest will need to show some proactiveness here and attacking intent. A more offensive Forest gameplan will only increase the likelihood of Hudson-Odoi pulling the trigger. 

The Braga left winger loves to drift into the box and is currently averaging 2.72 shots per 90 in the Portuguese League, plus 1.66 shots per 90 in the Europa League. 

The thing that catches my eye is the percentage of his efforts which end up on target, with 18 out of his 32 shots in the Liga Portugal ending up on target, a 56.25% success rate. There’s clearly an efficiency about the areas he’s taking up in the penalty box, exemplified by five of his goals being scored from central areas, just outside the six yard box. 

His shooting efficiency has indeed dropped off in the Europa League, but we’re still working with a fairly small sample size of just 487 minutes, compared to his minutes in the Liga Portugal.