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Brentford v Man City
Our first Premier League bet builder tips on Monday will be for this action-packed game as Brentford take on the reigning champions, Manchester City. As ever, we will be providing our usual selection of Premier League accumulator tips to go alongside our bet builder tips. We also have a wide range of football tips & predictions on-site from across the globe and in a range of sports, so no matter what you’re into, you can find it on Andy’s Bet Club.
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Brentford proved to be the curse of Manchester City last season but it would certainly be a shock if the Premier League champions were to allow history to repeat itself. The Bees defeated the treble winners in both league meetings last year, helping secure their impressive 9th place finish, but this season has seemingly taken a very different turn.
Brentford have struggled so far this campaign and they sit only four points above the relegation zone. As the saying goes, sometimes things have to get worse to get better, and considering they’ll face Man City and Liverpool three times in their next four matches, this couldn’t be personified any better. The return of Ivan Toney has surely boosted their prospects in escaping relegation but with only one victory in six games, it may take more than his presence to come out on top in this fixture.
Man City have established a stunning run of form since the turn of the year, racking up six consecutive victories, their latest being a midweek 3-1 battering of Burnley. These recent results have propelled the Citizens back up into second place, and if they’re to be victorious here, see them within 2 points of leaders Liverpool – the treble is well and truly on, once again. The expected return of Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne to the starting eleven will strike fear across the league, and it seems Brentford are lined up to be the first victim of their combined return.
Brentford v Man City Cheat Sheet
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⚽ Match stats: Erling Haaland – Cursebreaker
With their title charge seriously taking shape over the last few weeks, it’s very difficult to look past a victory for the champions here. After a small blip in December, Pep’s boys have got their flair back and dispatching games like they’re supposed to.
Man City have racked up four consecutive wins in the Premier League, which extends out to five wins from six, a perfect record spoiled by a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace. In this time, the Citizens have netted on 15 occasions. It has taken the last 11 Premier League games for Brentford to reach that total – a testament to the tale of both sides’ recent attacking prospects. This is all without their star man Erling Haaland, who is looking to open his account against Brentford after being silenced on both occasions last season.
Man City’s most recent Premier League outing against Newcastle at St James Park was destined to be a loss of ground for Man City in the title race, until an exquisite 20-minute bench appearance from Kevin De Bruyne shifted the game entirely on its head, marking a 3-2 victory. This marked 4 consecutive Premier League away wins for City and considering Brentford’s recent home troubles, we can expect the same again here.
The Gtech Community Stadium hasn’t inspired many promising performances for Brentford recently as they have lost three of their past five home league games, conceding 10 goals in the process. In comparison to their Monday visitor’s away form, there’s certainly some worry amongst the Brentford camp.
Thomas Frank has been victorious against Pep Guardiola on 2 occasions thus far and another win here will see him enter a very select group of just nine managers to have won 3 or more games against the Spaniard – including Jurgen Klopp, Carlo Ancelotti, Arsene Wenger and Jose Mourinho, some huge names. But this will be a tall order against a City side that has scored at least 3 goals in three of their last four league outings and in such fine form.
⚽ Man City to win @ 1.36
⚽ Man City (-1) handicap @ 2.0
⚽ Goal stats: Both teams reigning in the action recently
It’s very difficult to see this one being a low scoring affair, with both teams producing spectacles week after week recently.
All of Brentford’s last three results have ended with a 3-2 scoring, one in favour and two against, meaning the Bees have conceded six goals in their last two home league matches. The defensive difficulties have been extensive for Thomas Frank’s side as they’re without a clean sheet since October.
Brentfords’s defensive issues will be music to City’s ears, with the champions having scored in 30 of their 33 games across all competitions this season. There have been at least 2.5 goals in 71% of both Man City’s and Brentford’s games this campaign, and with such vital points up for grabs at both ends of the table, this matchup could spill lots of action.
Both teams to score is also looking a strong selection for this matchup, with this selection landing in 67% of both teams’ games this season. Man City have conceded in eight of their last 10 league games and are without a clean sheet in 5 away games dating back to the end of October. Their Monday hosts haven’t been silenced since their 1-0 defeat to Sheffield at the start of December.
Another strangely identical stat between these two sides is that at least four goals have been scored in five of their last six games across all competitions, so a punt at the same goal tally to occur here certainly looks promising.
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.73
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.57
🎯 Shooting stats: Can Brentford capitalise on City’s attacking addiction
Ivan Toney’s long awaited return to football has probably gone close to perfect. He has played two games, both in which he has scored and is seemingly back to his dangerous form of last season.
Albeit a very small sample of games so far this season, Toney has racked up 6 shots on goal since his return with 4 hitting the target – some decent numbers considering an 8-month absence from competitive football. He managed 5 shots in Brentford’s midweek defeat to Spurs, with 3 hitting the target so we should expect his goal-threat to continue here.
Toney scored a brace in this fixture last season to secure a 2-1 victory at the Etihad, and with Man City showing continued vulnerability at the back, he could certainly create some more danger here. A reminder that Toney racked up 20 goals in 33 Premier League appearances last season, averaging 2.65 shots on goal per 90 with 1.01 of those hitting the target – he makes things happen in the big games.
Sticking with Brentford, the Bees have shown great consistency in their on target attempts in recent weeks and the prices for these markets look strong here. Brentford to have 3+ shots on target is priced at a very reasonable 1.57 considering this selection has landed in 8 consecutive matches across all competitions. Partnered with continued defensive issues for Man City, this could be a very appealing selection.
Guardiola’s attacking philosophy usually gives opponents a few sniffs at goal which might even give value to the selection for Brentford to have 4+ shots on target. The Bees are averaging 3.95 shots on target per 90 this season, and have achieved this in six of their last eight across all competitions.
Another angle for this would be total efforts on goal. Brentford are averaging a respectable 13 shots on goal per 90 and yet markets for Thomas Frank’s side to have 9+ shots on goal is priced at 1.53. This selection has only failed on 3 occasions across their entire campaign this season, and has landed in six consecutive matches. Bare in mind, this was with the absence of star man Ivan Toney. With at least 11 shots in 4 of their last 6, you can look to increase this selection further to 10 efforts at goal on Monday.
⚽ Ivan Toney to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.57
⚽ Ivan Toney to have 3+ shots @ 2.20
⚽ Brentford to have 3+ shots on target @ 1.57
⚽ Brentford to have 4+ shots on target @ 2.50
⚽ Brentford to have 9+ shots @ 1.53
⚽ Brentford to have 10+ shots @ 1.91
🛑 Fouls stats: Norgaard continues his fouling quest
Brentford have established their affinity for high fouling matchups as of late, and with Man City expected to dominate most of the possession in the matchup, value may lay in the total fouls market for Monday’s hosts.
The Bees have racked up a respectable average of 11.00 fouls per 90 so far this campaign, a fouling total that has been achieved in three consecutive games for them. This once again matches up perfectly with the numbers for Man City, with the Citizens drawing in an average of 11.00 fouls per 90 this season. This will no doubtably be a tightly contested affair and with so much at stake in every remaining fixture for both sides, it’s likely the hosts become a little hot headed.
The Brentford players have also been subject to a large number of fouls in recent weeks, drawing in at least 12 fouls in 6 of their last 8 across matches. If a similar pattern is to occur again this week, this could result in some revenge fouls to help escalate their own foul tally.
In terms of player specific fouls, Christian Norgaard is emerging as the obvious target, especially after his lucky escape from suspension in the defeat at Spurs. The Bees skipper racked up a whopping six fouls in their midweek defeat and narrowly avoided a second yellow late in the game. He is averaging 1.75 fouls per 90 this season and has at least one foul in 12 of his last 14 games for Brentford – on half of those occasions he has committed at least two fouls.
Norgaard has proven himself to be Brentford’s hatchetman this season, with 8 yellows in the Premier League so far, as well as picking up 2 yellows on international duty. The midfield battle with Man City is arguably the toughest in the league, not to mention the tricky feet of their attacking assets. The likes of Jeremy Doku, Phil Foden and Rodri all drawing in 2.08, 1.82 and 0.94 fouls respectively, there’s plenty of opportunities for him to slip up, especially given his killer performance against Spurs.
⚽ Brentford to commit 10+ fouls @ 1.36
⚽ Brentford to commit 11+ fouls @ 1.62
⚽ Christian Norgaard to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.53
⚽ Christian Norgaards to be shown a card @ 2.88
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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