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Brighton v Nottingham Forest
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Kick Off: Sunday 22nd September at 14:00
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Brighton and Nottingham Forest will both put unbeaten records on the line on Sunday when they meet at the Amex Stadium.
Albion have made a promising start to life under new coach Fabian Hürzeler, picking up 2.0 points per game so far, despite facing tricky fixtures against Arsenal and Manchester United inside their first four matches.
Nottingham Forest meanwhile, have looked stronger following another aggressive summer recruitment drive and their 1-0 triumph at Liverpool last weekend would have galvanised their early-season confidence even further.
Brighton v Nottingham Forest Best Bets
➡️ Under 2.5 goals @ 1.91 with Betfair
➡️ Nottingham Forest (+2) handicap @ 1.30 with Betfair
➡️ Half time draw @ 2.20 with Betfair
➡️ Over 4.5 cards @ 1.57 with Betfair
Nottingham Forest’s well-drilled but risk-averse strategy under Nuno Espirito Santo lends itself to low-scoring outcomes and fixtures decided by narrow margins and all of the Tricky Trees’ first four Premier League matches returned under 2.5 goals as a result.
Punters should expect another game of few chances when Forest take their defensively disciplined unit to the Amex Stadium and backing under 2.5 goals at 1.91, or even the visitors with a +1.0 (2.00) or +2.0 goal handicap at 1.30 are worthwhile options to consider.
However, with the same logic providing inspiration, we’re attracted by the prospect of backing a draw in the half time market at a superb price of 2.20.
Brighton scored just one first-half goal in their last three Premier League matches combined, while Forest have conceded just once in the first half of a league fixture since the summer. Expect a cautious start from Forest on the south coast, which should in turn keep things tight until the interval.
Elsewhere, plenty of consideration should be given to the over 4.5 total cards market at 1.57 on Sunday. Tempers flared in both of last season’s tussles between Brighton and Forest, with 47 fouls committed and a whopping 17 cards (16 yellow & one red) brandished across two bristly meetings.
When Forest last visited the Amex Stadium in March, the teams earned four bookings each and with many of the same instigators likely to be on show in Saturday’s rematch, expect some old scores to be settled.
📂 Brighton v Nottingham Forest Cheat Sheet
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📊 Brighton Form and Stats
Unbeaten after four games and nestled nicely in sixth position, Brighton have made a bright start to Fabian Hürzeler’s tenure and the slick football we’ve come to associate with Albion in recent years has been on show again in the campaign’s early exchanges.
The Seagulls rank fourth for xGF accumulated so far (6.90), while they lead the way for average shots attempted per 90 (16.75) and only four clubs have been winning more corners than Brighton (6.25 p/90) since the summer.
A victory and draw against Manchester United and Arsenal respectively had all the hallmarks of a group enjoying a shift in direction and though Brighton failed to make the most of their chances at home to Ipswich last time out (0-0), they rediscovered their goal-scoring touch in midweek with a 3-2 triumph over Wolves in the Carabao Cup.
In terms of individuals, Kaoru Mitoma (1.28) has been a top performer in the shots on target per 90 stakes, though the evergreen Danny Welbeck has had more attempts at goal than anyone else (ten).
Summer signing Yankuba Minteh has chipped in with just one assist, however, he has been surprisingly reliable as a foul-market option and has been committing 2.00 fouls per 90 minutes on the flank.
📊 Nottingham Forest Form and Stats
Nuno Espirito Santo is a little over 18 months into the job at Nottingham Forest and the Portuguese manager, renowned for his risk-averse and disciplined philosophy, has really put his stamp on his Tricky Trees team.
With summer acquisition Nikola Milenkovic adding steel at centre half, Forest conceded just two goals in their opening four Premier League fixtures, while only Liverpool and Man City have posted better xGA figures so far than the Midlanders (3.00).
Forest showcased their impressive defensive robustness last weekend to beat Liverpool at Anfield for the first time since 1969, restricting the frustrated Reds to just 0.90 in xGF and Brighton will have to be at their sharpest to penetrate the Nottingham defence on Sunday.
Further forward, Nottingham Forest’s output has been modest, though four goals in four games was enough to win them eight points from an available 12.
Two-goal Chris Wood has been incredibly clinical so far, with the target man getting 70% of his ten shots for the campaign on target, but while the burly New Zealander is the focal point, Forest’s attack is supplemented by an excellent counter-attacking cast.
Morgan Gibbs-White, Anthony Elanga and the rejuvenated Callum Hudson-Odoi have all been averaging better than a shot on target per 90 in the Premier League since the summer and all three can provide thrust on the break at the Amex Stadium.
⚔️ Brighton v Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head
Former Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi masterminded wins over two different Nottingham Forest managers last season (Steve Cooper/Nuno Espirito), with Albion completing the league double over the Tricky Trees through 1-0 and 3-2 victories.
Different names have occupied the dugouts for Brighton’s tussles with Nottingham Forest since the latter’s promotion back to the Premier League in 2022, however, the pattern in terms of results between the clubs have been consistent.
At the City Ground, encounters between Albion and Forest have entertained, averaging 4.50 goals per game, however, margins have been slim at the Amex Stadium and just a single goal was registered across two fixtures between the club at that venue.
Last season, it took an Andrew Omobamidele own goal to separate the sides on the south coast with the Seagulls pipping Forest to the points (1-0). That contest featured just 0.40 in xGF for the hosts and 0.70 in expected goals for Nuno Espirito Santo’s visitors.
Forest midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White managed to score in two of the last iterations of this fixture, one of which was dispatched from the spot. In fact, penalty kicks have been common in this fixture with three of them awarded in as many games since April 2023.
Players in both camps got a little hot under the collar in last season’s skirmishes between Brighton and Forest with the teams’ two showdowns producing one red and 16 yellow cards.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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