Brighton have lost just two home games this season. Their home record isn’t amazing, as a lot of those have been draws, but I just fancy them to at least keep Forest at arms length in this one.

I don’t take much from H2H records, but it is encouraging to note that Brighton have had the better of Forest in the Premier League era, with Forest failing to win a top-flight game against Brighton.

Forest have only managed three away wins this season, and although things have improved under Vitor Pereira - they’re in that strange position of being in a relegation battle but also having one eye on Europe.

Brighton’s metrics improve drastically on home soil. Their xG rises from 1.39 to 1.60, whilst their xGA drops from 1.52 down to 1.26, showing a significantly stronger showing at The Amex, as opposed to their matches on the road.

Forest have had a couple of good away wins lately, but with the European distraction and Brighton’s home record, I’m siding with the Seagulls.

The evergreen Danny Welbeck, still producing the goods. Welbeck has bagged nine goals this season and is comfortably Brighton’s top scorer. Despite spending on forwards, he still manages to hold down his place.

In terms of shots on target, Welbeck tops the Brighton charts at 0.94 per 90 minutes. He’s had a shot on target in each of his last four Premier League starts, and he is also likely to be Brighton’s penalty taker if they were to receive one. 

Forest have conceded at least three shots on target in nine of their last 10. Two of them saw them concede four, and another two saw them concede five.

This game could be quite tight, but I do expect Brighton to get a result here, and at home, they can put anyone under pressure. It doesn’t take a lot for Welbeck to sniff out an opportunity that can get us a tick on our slip.

I’m a big fan of the latest Brighton starlet off the conveyor belt. Gomez looks like such an exciting player, one with an eye for the spectacular and an excellent physical profile, as well as technical.

One thing he does enjoy, though, is committing regular fouls. So, we’re on him to make at least two in this match.

Gomez has averaged 1.86 fouls per 90 this season. This has been particularly prominent recently when he’s been playing off the right-hand side. He’s made seven fouls across his last three matches from that position.

He’ll also be up against one of Forest’s most fouled players - you’d probably assume that that's Callum Hudson-Odoi. The English winger averages 0.64 fouls drawn per 90. But in fact, it’s Neco Williams. Williams is impeded an average of 1.76 times per 90, the 3rd-highest from the Forest starting line-up, and he’ll be in closest proximity to Diego Gomez.

I do like the price on Sangare to commit 2+ fouls at 1.73, but the added safety we get in the foul involvements market is perfect for a bet builder at these odds.

Sangare has averaged 1.86 fouls per 90 so far this season, and that is the basis of this bet. He’s big, he’s physical and he’s very aggressive. He has looked a much better player lately, playing closer to the Sangare that they hoped they’d signed.

He has committed 11 fouls across his last three games: 4, 4, 3. Some hefty numbers.

He’s not awful for drawing fouls either, at 0.86 per 90. Brighton do commit a lot of fouls in central areas too with Diego Gomez when he drifts in (1.86), Jack Hinshelwood (2.05), Carlos Baleba (1.91) and James Milner (1.70).

Sangare has also drawn four fouls across his last five games. 

Across those five, 2+ foul involvements has landed on every occasion, so I’m confident that the trend will continue against Brighton.