Bristol City have won or drawn 15 of their 18 games at Ashton Gate this season. Two of their three defeats came against Sheffield United and Burnley, who are 2nd and 3rd in the league, and the other came against Swansea in a game where they outshot the visitors 19-9, but couldn’t find the breakthrough. Even the defeat against the Blades came courtesy of a 98th minute winner after City had been reduced to 10 men.

Norwich have drawn or lost 14 of their 18 away games, a dismal record for a side hoping to reach the play-offs for a second successive season. Two of their four wins came against sides currently in the relegation zone. The other two wins were against a Coventry side who were not what they are now, and a recent victory against Watford who had been a strong home side this season, but have now lost four of their last six at Vicarage Road.

Bristol City’s home games have seen two or more goals on 11 out of 18 occasions this season, whilst Norwich’s away games have seen two or more goals on 13 out of 18 occasions. Each sides’ last five games would have seen this bet win.

Ashton Gate has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game, whilst Norwich’s travelling faithful have seen exactly the same ratio, which should set us in good stead ahead of this game.

Norwich have scored the 2nd highest total of goals in the Championship this season, but also concede 1.4 per game.

Right-sided defender Tanner, who has been playing as a right centre back since the injury suffered by Luke McNally, has started 19 games this season in the Championship, committing one or more foul in 13 of those starts.

He will have Borja Sainz as a direct opponent, the league’s top scorer and a tricky ball carrier. Sainz has been fouled at least once in 28 out of 32 Championship appearances this season.

Tanner is dribbled past on average once per 90, whilst Sainz averages 2.4 per 90, which could leave Tanner with no choice but to foul his opponent.

Scott Twine usually has freedom to roam in this Bristol City set up, as one of the attacking midfielders behind a lone striker. Twine has started 24 league games this season, committing one or more fouls in two-thirds (16/24) of them.

The side he will operate on depends on whether Anis Mehmeti is brought into the team, as Twine has been deployed as the left attacking midfielder in recent weeks, but that would likely change if Mehmeti started. The left side is probably the preference for this bet, given Norwich right back Kellen Fisher is fouled 1.6 times per 90.

Liam Manning’s side have the play-offs firmly in their sights, with just two points and one position keeping them out at the moment. They will be buoyed by a late equaliser at Bramall Lane on Tuesday evening, which was more than deserved on the balance of play.

Norwich are only seven points off the play-off positions themselves, but with five other teams in between. They also must be feeling pretty low, after failing to win successive home games against Oxford and Sheffield Wednesday, after taking the lead in both. Against Wednesday, they were 2-0 up and ended up losing 3-2.

Bristol City can take advantage of that low mood by winning here.

Bristol City have taken five or more corners on home turf in the Championship in 13 games out of 18 this season, and have fallen just one corner short on two of the five occasions in which they did not hit this mark.

Norwich have only conceded five or more corners seven times in 18 away games, but those include three of the four games they have played against the current top seven.

Given we fancy the home side to win this game, we expect plenty of attacking intent and possession in the final third, which in turn may lead to crosses and shots being deflected behind.

We have taken Tanner to make 1+ fouls in the first builder, and we also think 2+ looks a decent bet for the reasons mentioned previously.

To expand further, Tanner has committed two or more fouls on five of his 19 starts. Sainz has been fouled two or more times in 17 appearances out of 32.

Obviously, it could be someone other than Tanner who racks up fouls on Sainz, but as the right centre back he is the most likely, whilst Bristol City’s right wing back starter has been rotated in recent weeks, so we cannot be sure who will play there at the time of writing.

The top scorer in the Championship playing for the 2nd-highest goalscorers in the Championship is surely a likely candidate to have a shot on target in this game.

Sainz has had at least one shot on target in 22 of 32 games he has played this season, and has done so in his last five appearances.

He averages 1.4 per 90 over the course of the whole season, which is the best figure of any player from either side, yet several players are a shorter price than Sainz to do so.