Arguably the game of the weekend, Freiburg host Frankfurt with Champions League football on the line. Just two points separate them: Frankfurt in 3rd (57 pts), Freiburg in 4th (55 pts), with Dortmund lurking just behind on 54.

Given that Dortmund are expected to beat already-relegated Holstein Kiel, they’re likely to climb to 57 points, meaning the pressure is squarely on both Freiburg and Frankfurt to avoid slipping out of the top four.

For Freiburg, the equation is simple: only a win will do. A draw or defeat almost certainly spells the end of their UCL dreams. Defeat and they remain on 55 points, whilst a draw leaves them on 56, and inevitably sees BVB push Freiburg out.

Frankfurt can’t afford a slip either, with GD potentially decisive in the event of defeat. While a draw is enough to cement a 3rd place finish, defeat opens the door for Dortmund to leapfrog them. Frankfurt’s +20 GD gives them a slender cushion over Dortmund’s +17, but with Dortmund likely to win comfortably, that +3 gap could be wiped out. Should goal difference finish level, Dortmund would finish above them on goals scored (68 v Frankfurt’s 65 pre-round). That means Frankfurt can’t afford to sit back.

Even a narrow defeat could cost them, so both sides will be pushing for goals, especially with so much at stake. BTTS has landed in nine of the last 11 meetings, including each of the last three, which saw a huge 18 goals (9-9 on aggregate). Add Freiburg’s run of four straight home BTTS results and the must-win nature of the fixture for both sides, and this one is primed for action at both ends.

It’s a classic case of survival v European ambition as Heidenheim host Werder Bremen. Heidenheim’s 3-0 win last weekend kept their survival hopes alive, dragging Hoffenheim and St. Pauli into the mix. Still three points adrift, only a win will do, and even that may not be enough unless Hoffenheim are hammered by Bayern (which isn’t implausible). Heidenheim also face a steep -7 GD gap to overcome, which means attacking from the off is their only option.

On the flip side, Bremen remain mathematically in the race for Europe, trailing 6th-placed Mainz by three points. A top-six finish may be a stretch, but a win could secure their best Bundesliga placing since 2009/10, giving them plenty to play for. The reverse fixture was a chaotic 3-3 draw, and all of the last four head-to-heads have seen BTTS. With desperation at both ends of the pitch, expect another wide-open match.

Hoffenheim’s draw with Wolfsburg last weekend means their top-flight status is still at risk, and while they hold their fate in their own hands, they now face the worst possible opponent in Bayern Munich.

A draw is enough for safety, in theory. But simply sitting back and holding Bayern to a 0-0 is as close to fantasy as it gets. No final-day Bundesliga game in the last five seasons has ended goalless. On top of that, Bayern have failed to score just twice in their last 46 away league matches (both against Leverkusen).

Not only are Bayern relentless on the road, averaging 2.63 in the league this season, but Hoffenheim concede two goals per home game on average, which highlights their defensive shortfalls. They will need to chase goals for at least parity to avoid relying on results elsewhere. Hoffenheim are on a five-game home scoring streak in the league and will be desperate to keep that going. 

Mainz are looking to cap off a superb campaign under Bo Henriksen. After steering the club away from relegation last year, he’s now on the verge of leading them to a top-six finish and their first European qualification since 2016. They currently edge Leipzig on goal difference and remain in pole position, but their place in Europe is still not mathematically secure heading into the final day.

A dominant 4-1 win over already-relegated Bochum last weekend ended a seven-game winless run and put them back in control (a position that seemed inevitable before their decline began round 27, where they were sat 3rd in the table). They’ll take confidence into this one, too, given they boast the Bundesliga’s longest unbeaten home run (W6, D6). Extending that streak to 13 would mark a club record and seal a historic season.

With Xabi Alonso confirmed to be leaving, long-serving centre-back Jonathan Tah on his way out of Leverkusen, and the rumour of further key departures in Jeremie Frimpong and Florian Wirtz, the visitors will be eager to send them off in style. After a 4-2 defeat to Dortmund in their final home game, Die Werkself will want to restore pride and close out their season on a high.

While they haven’t quite hit the same heights as last term, Leverkusen’s away form remains exceptional. They are unbeaten on the road in the Bundesliga this season and can break the all-time league record for consecutive away games without defeat (currently tied with Bayern on 33 games).

With Mainz needing a result, Leverkusen playing with freedom, and quality on both sides of the ball, the ingredients are there for goals at both ends.